WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Severe Tropical Storm

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1900hurricane
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#21 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Oct 02, 2015 3:04 pm

The scale of this thing is massive. It's also somewhat far north, near 20*N.

Image
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#22 Postby NotoSans » Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:37 pm

they have learned some lessons from the Nakri incident lol

TPPN10 PGTW 030309

A. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CHOI-WAN)

B. 03/0232Z

C. 19.07N

D. 165.60E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. SYSTEM DISPLAYS CHARACTERISTICS OF A
MONSOON DEPRESSION THEREFORE DVORAK INTENSITIES ARE CURRENTLY
UNAVAILABLE. POSITION IS BASED ON A CENTROID FIX.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE
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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 03, 2015 3:04 am

Image

40 knots...

WDPN32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (CHOI-WAN)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES
ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT A CENTROID. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTROID. ALTHOUGH TS 23W IS STILL A VERY LARGE SYSTEM, IT IS
GAINING CHARACTERISTICS TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL STORM, I.E., MORE
CENTRALIZED DEEP CONVECTION AND A CONTRACTING WIND FIELD. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SST. TS 23W HAS
BEGUN TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AND PROMOTE A STEADY INTENSIFICATION RATE, PEAKING AT 85
KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS CHOI-WAN WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR
AND TRACK MORE POLEWARD. AS IT GAINS LATITUDE, VWS WILL INCREASE AND
SSTS WILL DECREASE, RESULTING IN GRADUAL THEN RAPID WEAKENING.
CONCURRENTLY, TS 23W WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
ENTERS THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE CYCLONE WILL TRANSFORM INTO A
COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT STORM
MOTION AND THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 03, 2015 6:05 am

Image

Look at the size of Choi-wan... :double:
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NWS for the Western Pacific

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#25 Postby supercane » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:42 pm

WTPQ51 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1523 CHOI-WAN (1523)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 20.0N 160.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 400NM NORTH 325NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 21.2N 154.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 060000UTC 23.1N 150.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 070000UTC 27.8N 149.4E 210NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 080000UTC 36.1N 148.1E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 21KT
120HF 090000UTC 45.3N 145.5E 375NM 70%
MOVE N 24KT =

WDPN32 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM
WEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED AS INCREASED DEEP
CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDS TIGHTLY WRAP INTO THE CENTROID. A
032326Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, AFOREMENTIONED METOP-B IMAGE,
AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH TS 23W IS STILL A VERY LARGE SYSTEM, IT IS GAINING
CHARACTERISTICS TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL STORM, I.E., MORE CENTRALIZED
DEEP CONVECTION AND A CONTRACTING WIND FIELD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS RISEN TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW
VWS. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SSTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TS 23W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STR. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST; HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF LLCC, TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY, LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
CONCURRENTLY, CHOI-WAN IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE STR AND TRACK MORE
POLEWARD. AS IT GAINS LATITUDE, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, STRONG VWS IS EXPECTED TO HAMPER TS 23W AS IT
ACCELERATES POLEWARD. BY TAU 96, CHOI-WAN IS FORECAST TO COMMENCE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE
CYCLONE WILL TRANSFORM INTO A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE CURRENT STORM MOTION AND THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TRACK, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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#26 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 04, 2015 8:08 am

WTPQ51 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1523 CHOI-WAN (1523)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 20.8N 158.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 450NM NORTH 325NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 21.9N 153.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 060600UTC 23.5N 150.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 070600UTC 29.0N 149.4E 210NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 080600UTC 37.8N 147.4E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 22KT
120HF 090600UTC 46.1N 144.5E 375NM 70%
MOVE N 21KT =

WDPN32 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 905 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A BETTER CONSOLIDATED STORM WITH
INCREASED CONVECTION WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER; HOWEVER, IT IS
STILL DEVOID OF CENTRAL CONVECTION LEAVING A LARGE EXPOSED CENTER.
THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION IS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
CENTER OF THE CENTROID IN THE MSI IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE
FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON A RECENT SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
52 KNOTS AND A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM
RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
RADIAL OUTFLOW, DUE TO A POINT SOURCE, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TS 23W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, TS 23W
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE.
AFTERWARDS, TS CHOI-WAN IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE STR AND TRACK MORE
POLEWARD. AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, VWS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ABOVE 30 KNOTS AND
SSTS WILL DROP BELOW 26 CELSIUS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RATE OF
WEAKENING. TS CHOI-WAN WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR TAU 72 WHICH WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. BY TAU
96, TS 23W WILL BE FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, GAINING
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS, AND TRANSITIONING TO A STRONG COLD-CORE
LOW. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND, THEREFORE, THE
CURRENT STORM MOTION, THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

WTPQ51 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1523 CHOI-WAN (1523)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 21.5N 157.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 450NM NORTH 325NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 22.4N 152.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 061200UTC 25.1N 150.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 071200UTC 32.8N 149.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 081200UTC 41.0N 146.8E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 21KT
120HF 091200UTC 48.4N 146.1E 375NM 70%
MOVE N 19KT =
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#27 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 04, 2015 10:43 am

WDPN32 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING
NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 838 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS DEEPENED CURVED CONVECTION ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY THAT HAS BUILT CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
CENTROID. A 041122Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A LARGE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE LLCC IN THE ABOVE
IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50
KNOTS BASED ON AN UNCHANGED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM RJTD AND
A RECENT SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS. A 041039Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITH 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS
AND AN EXPANDED 34 KNOT WIND FIELD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY.
THE CURRENT AND FORECASTED WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH A POINT SOURCE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TS 23W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TS CHOI-WAN IS FORECAST
TO ROUND THE STR AND TRACK MORE POLEWARD. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. AS THE SYSTEM GAINS
LATITUDE, IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, VWS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ABOVE 30 KNOTS AND
SSTS WILL DROP BELOW 26 CELSIUS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RATE OF
WEAKENING. TS CHOI-WAN WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE NEAR TAU 72 WHICH WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. BY TAU
96, TS 23W WILL BE FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, GAINING
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS, AND TRANSITIONING TO A STRONG COLD-CORE
LOW. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE CURRENT STORM
MOTION, THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 04, 2015 2:27 pm

WTPQ51 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1523 CHOI-WAN (1523) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 21.8N 156.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 450NM NORTH 325NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 23.1N 151.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 061800UTC 26.7N 150.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 071800UTC 35.6N 148.7E 210NM 70%
MOVE N 22KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 081800UTC 42.5N 147.3E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
120HF 091800UTC 49.4N 148.3E 375NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT =
Last edited by supercane on Sun Oct 04, 2015 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#29 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 04, 2015 3:16 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 794 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEPENED CURVED CONVECTION ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY THAT HAS BUILT CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
CENTROID. A 041619Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO A LARGE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS IS BASED ON IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND A RECENT SATCON INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 54 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TS 23W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TS CHOI-WAN IS FORECAST
TO ROUND THE STR AND TRACK MORE POLEWARD. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. AS THE SYSTEM GAINS
LATITUDE, IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
C. CONTINUED UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER DECAY THE
SYSTEM. BY TAU 72, TS CHOI-WAN WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AS IT INTERACTS WITH MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TS 23W WILL BE FULLY
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, GAINING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS,
AND TRANSITIONING TO A STRONG COLD-CORE LOW BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT;
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE
CURRENT STORM MOTION, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CONFIDENCE LEVEL
REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 04, 2015 8:11 pm

WTPQ51 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1523 CHOI-WAN (1523)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 21.3N 154.8E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 425NM NORTH 325NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 23.5N 151.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 070000UTC 28.6N 150.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 080000UTC 39.4N 148.6E 210NM 70%
MOVE N 27KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 090000UTC 47.0N 147.2E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 19KT
120HF 100000UTC 53.3N 144.8E 375NM 70%
MOVE N 16KT =
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#31 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 04, 2015 8:49 pm

WTPN52 PGTW 050300
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 151005010212
2015100500 23W CHOI-WAN 011 02 260 13 SATL 060
T000 216N 1545E 055 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 240 SE QD 245 SW QD 300 NW QD
T012 223N 1524E 065 R050 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 235 SE QD 240 SW QD 280 NW QD
T024 237N 1512E 075 R064 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 115 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 235 SE QD 235 SW QD 270 NW QD
T036 257N 1503E 080 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 225 SE QD 225 SW QD 260 NW QD
T048 286N 1498E 075 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 225 SE QD 215 SW QD 240 NW QD
T072 370N 1490E 060 R050 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 245 SE QD 245 SW QD 280 NW QD
T096 461N 1477E 045
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL

WDPN32 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND SATELLITE FIXES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND A RECENT 042305Z ASCAT
IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE TS 23W IS LOCATED
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TS 23W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STR OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TS CHOI-WAN IS
FORECAST TO ROUND THE STR AND TRACK MORE POLEWARD. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS;
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, TS 23W IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. AS THE SYSTEM
GAINS LATITUDE, IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
C. CONTINUED UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER DECAY THE
SYSTEM. BY TAU 72, TS CHOI-WAN WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TS 23W WILL BE
FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, GAINING FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS, AND TRANSITIONING TO A STRONG COLD-CORE LOW BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION
AND THE CURRENT STORM MOTION, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CONFIDENCE
LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 05, 2015 4:40 am

Image

It's HUGE :double:
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#33 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Oct 05, 2015 10:39 am

Back to STS strength

<Analyses at 05/12 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N22°35'(22.6°)
E152°35'(152.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N850km(450NM)
S560km(300NM)
<Forecast for 06/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°35'(23.6°)
E151°20'(151.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 06/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N25°35'(25.6°)
E150°35'(150.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)
<Forecast for 07/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N34°30'(34.5°)
E150°35'(150.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 40km/h(22kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM)
<Forecast for 08/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N42°25'(42.4°)
E147°35'(147.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 40km/h(21kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL600km(325NM)
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#34 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:19 am

Choi-wan's overall structure is actually quite good, just on a jumbo scale.

Image
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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Severe Tropical Storm

#35 Postby supercane » Mon Oct 05, 2015 2:19 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1523 CHOI-WAN (1523)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 22.8N 151.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 450NM NORTH 300NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 061800UTC 27.1N 150.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 071800UTC 38.0N 149.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 27KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 081800UTC 44.9N 147.6E 210NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Severe Tropical Storm

#36 Postby supercane » Mon Oct 05, 2015 4:32 pm

WTPN52 PGTW 052100
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 151005195753
2015100518 23W CHOI-WAN 014 01 300 10 SATL 060
T000 229N 1517E 060 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 240 SE QD 245 SW QD 300 NW QD
T012 248N 1506E 070 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 240 SE QD 245 SW QD 300 NW QD
T024 276N 1501E 080 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 240 SE QD 245 SW QD 300 NW QD
T036 316N 1497E 070 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 240 SE QD 245 SW QD 300 NW QD
T048 361N 1492E 060
T072 457N 1476E 050
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL

WDPN32 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING
NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 149 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, BROAD LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A
051526Z GPM 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
INTO A BROAD BUT DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EIR AND GPM IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS (T3.5) BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. TS 23W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS CHOI-WAN IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STEERING STR AND TRACK ON A POLEWARD TRAJECTORY. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS,
ALLOWING TS 23W TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BEFORE MOVING
INTO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. NEAR TAU 24, THE STORM WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. AFTER TAU 36, TS 23W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
STRONG VWS AND TRACKS OVER COOL SST (BELOW 26 CELSIUS). TS CHOI-WAN
WILL COMPLETE ETT AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS BY TAU 48 BUT
WILL REMAIN A STRONG COLD-CORE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD WITH
EXPANSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS, WHICH SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF HONSHU. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Severe Tropical Storm

#37 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 05, 2015 7:21 pm

Image
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#38 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:11 pm

JTWC went with an entry level 65 kt typhoon for 00/03Z.
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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Severe Tropical Storm

#39 Postby supercane » Mon Oct 05, 2015 10:38 pm

WTPN52 PGTW 060300
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 151006011034
2015100600 23W CHOI-WAN 015 01 325 08 SATL 050
T000 236N 1512E 065 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 240 SE QD 245 SW QD 300 NW QD
T012 257N 1504E 070 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 240 SE QD 245 SW QD 300 NW QD
T024 287N 1501E 080 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 240 SE QD 245 SW QD 300 NW QD
T036 333N 1496E 070 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 240 SE QD 245 SW QD 300 NW QD
T048 384N 1492E 060
T072 458N 1483E 050
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL

WDPN32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 158 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A
BROAD BUT DEFINED CENTER. A 052021Z WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
65 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TY 23W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY CHOI-WAN IS STARTING TO ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STEERING STR AND IS NOW TRACKING ON A POLEWARD TRAJECTORY.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS, ALLOWING TY 23W TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS
BEFORE MOVING INTO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. NEAR TAU 24, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TY 23W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS AND TRACKS OVER COOL SST (BELOW 26 CELSIUS).
TY CHOI-WAN WILL COMPLETE ETT AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS BY
TAU 48 BUT WILL REMAIN A STRONG COLD-CORE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD
WITH EXPANSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS, WHICH SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS
THE NORTHEAST COAST OF HONSHU. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

WTPQ21 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1523 CHOI-WAN (1523)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 23.0N 150.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 450NM NORTH 350NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 070000UTC 28.2N 150.0E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 080000UTC 39.9N 148.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 29KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 090000UTC 45.8N 148.3E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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#40 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:22 pm

Looks a lot like Talas right now.

IMO likely around 70 or 75 knots now, but with the large size, the pressure is IMO around 960 mbar.
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