WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Severe Tropical Storm

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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Severe Tropical Storm

#41 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:34 pm

TXPQ24 KNES 060343
TCSWNP

A. 23W (CHOI-WAN)

B. 06/0301Z

C. 23.2N

D. 151.2E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT OF 4.0 IS BASED ON 1.1 BANDING IN VIS. MET AND PT ARE
4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

TPPN10 PGTW 060340

A. TYPHOON 23W (CHOI-WAN)

B. 06/0232Z

C. 23.66N

D. 150.90E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN RAPS 1.10 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN
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#42 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:38 pm

:uarrow: And neither are using an eye scene.
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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Severe Tropical Storm

#43 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:54 am

17th typhoon in this incredibly active season.
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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Severe Tropical Storm

#44 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:44 am

It's a monster typhoon with a huge eye... :double: The marianas got lucky again...

Image
Image
Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Severe Tropical Storm

#45 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:48 am

ADT only giving this a 2.3. :lol:

AMSU giving this 82 knots, 962 mb.

65 knots is too low..

More likely 80 to 90 knots now.
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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Severe Tropical Storm

#46 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 06, 2015 7:00 am

Image

Image
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Re:

#47 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 06, 2015 7:31 am

spiral wrote:Thats a putrid looking storm..........monster typhoon lol


Looks like someone deleted my comment but i meant monster typhoon in size... :lol:

It's huge. :eek:
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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Severe Tropical Storm

#48 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 06, 2015 8:27 am

Up to 70 knots!

23W CHOI-WAN 151006 1200 25.1N 150.7E WPAC 70 970
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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Severe Tropical Storm

#49 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 06, 2015 8:45 am

JMA's 55 knots 10 min actually equals to a typhoon of 65 knots 1 min or it's wind gust of 80 knots is equivalent.

JTWC is already up to 70 knots.

Poor title change.. :roll:
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#50 Postby NotoSans » Tue Oct 06, 2015 10:38 am

JMA had it at T4.5 at 12Z. Don't know why they went with 55 kt.

T4.5 from SAB at 1432Z

TXPQ24 KNES 061527
TCSWNP

A. 23W (CHOI-WAN)

B. 06/1432Z

C. 26.0N

D. 150.8E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...A LARGE WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN DG AND SURROUNDED BY MG,
WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.5 WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE ALSO
4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Severe Tropical Storm

#51 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:08 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM
NORTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY INDICATES A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
061711Z SSMI IMAGE REFLECTS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOWS
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED, APPROXIMATELY
160-NM EYEWALL-LIKE FEATURE. THE 061711Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS AN
ELONGATED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 70
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77
KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP TROUGH ENTRENCHED SOUTH OF JAPAN. TY
23W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP,
POLEWARD-ORIENTED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA, WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXPANSIVE
REGION OF GALE-FORCE WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
B. TY CHOI-WAN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TY 23W MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH TAU 12 DUE TO
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BY TAU 12, TY 23W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
TRACKS OVER COOLER SST. TY 23W WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36 AS IT
GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN STORM
FORCE WINDS AND EXPANSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS, WHICH COULD ENCROACH ON
THE COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHERN JAPAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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#52 Postby supercane » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:28 pm

Interesting differences between the JTWC forecast (which shows Choi-wan has already peaked and has already started extratropical transition while weakening below typhoon strength) and the JMA forecast (which predicts strengthening up to typhoon status prior to extratropical transition)

WTPN52 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 151007005928
2015100700 23W CHOI-WAN 019 01 005 19 SATL 060
T000 284N 1509E 065 R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 210 SE QD 210 SW QD 270 NW QD
T012 332N 1503E 060 R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 210 SE QD 210 SW QD 270 NW QD
T024 385N 1491E 055 R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 210 SE QD 210 SW QD 270 NW QD
T036 427N 1484E 050
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL

WDPN32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 864 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND CORRESPONDING TO INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THIS TREND IS EVIDENT IN A
062154Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
BROADLY INTO AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 65 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS (T4.0). UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP TROUGH ENTRENCHED SOUTH OF JAPAN. TY
23W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP,
POLEWARD-ORIENTED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY CHOI-WAN WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TY 23W APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED BUT WILL WEAKEN
SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 12 AS VWS WILL BE OFFSET BY THE STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. TY 23W HAS COMMENCED EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 36 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN STORM FORCE WINDS AND EXPANSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS, WHICH
COULD ENCROACH ON THE COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHERN JAPAN. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

WTPQ21 RJTD 070300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1523 CHOI-WAN (1523)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070300UTC 29.8N 151.1E FAIR
MOVE N 20KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 450NM NORTH 350NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 080300UTC 40.8N 147.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 27KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 090000UTC 46.2N 147.6E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

WTPQ31 RJTD 070000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR STS 1523 CHOI-WAN (1523)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN STS 1523 CHOI-WAN (1523) AND UPPER COLD LOW IN THE WEST DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 070000 UTC IS FAIR.
STS WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE.
STS WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO LOCATE AT SOUTH-EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER COLD LOW.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.
STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.=
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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Severe Tropical Storm

#53 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 07, 2015 4:10 am

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 624 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 29 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD
CONVECTION AROUND A CLOUD FILLED LLCC WITH POLEWARD AND SOME
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MSI SHOWS LIMITED CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE LLCC WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY A 070427Z SSMI IMAGE WHICH
LACKS DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE LLCC ON THE WESTERN PORTION.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
BROAD NATURE THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DOES SHOW GOOD OUTFLOW WHICH OFFSET
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VWS, WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN THE MSI IMAGERY.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF A STR
IN ADDITION TO INTERACTING WITH A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
WEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY CHOI-WAN WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE PROVIDED BY THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD, INCREASED VWS
AND DECREASING OHC VALUES WILL DECAY THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WILL OCCUR
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE SYSTEM COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 36 AS
TY CHOI-WAN GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN STORM FORCE INTENSITY THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE-TIME, DESPITE IT
TAKING ON COLD-CORE CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Severe Tropical Storm

#54 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 07, 2015 4:22 am

Huge storm...

NWS

TYPHOON CHOI-WAN IS QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO A POWERFUL EXTRA-
TROPICAL LOW EAST OF JAPAN AS IT RACES AWAY NORTHWARD. WEST OF
CHOI-WAN...35 TO 45 MPH NORTH WINDS COVER AN AREA ABOUT 900 MILES
LONG NORTH-SOUTH AND 500 MILES WIDE EAST-WEST DUE NORTH OF THE
MARIANAS AND SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN.
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#55 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Oct 07, 2015 5:52 am

Looks big but more like scrambled eggs :lol: Maybe 55-70 kts for now is reasonable tho since ASCAT supports it
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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Severe Tropical Storm

#56 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 07, 2015 6:10 am

Impressive...

According to Philip Klotzbach, Choi-wan is the 16th typhoon to form in the NW Pacific in 2015. This is the most by 10/6 since 2004 (also 16 by 10/6)

On pace...
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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Severe Tropical Storm

#57 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 07, 2015 7:13 am

This was yestesday morning more than 17 hours before it was upgraded to a typhoon.

HUGE!

Image
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Re:

#58 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 07, 2015 7:42 am

spiral wrote:
JTWC looks right to me strongest winds are not wrapping into the core.



Image
Image
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#59 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 07, 2015 11:52 am

Transitioning to an extratropical cyclone very quickly now, much like Atsani did earlier this year.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Severe Tropical Storm

#60 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 07, 2015 5:07 pm

Image

WTPN32 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 37.6N 150.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 38 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.6N 150.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 41.8N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 45.1N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 38.7N 150.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 38 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT STORM POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TS 23W IS RAPIDLY MERGING WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS INTERACTION IS GENERATING A VERY INTENSE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL WINDS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TRACKING POLEWARD. THEREFORE, THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 36 FEET.//
NNNN
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