WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Severe Tropical Storm

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1900hurricane
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#61 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:24 pm

Wow, what a major Tropopause Folding event. It's not everyday that you get sat temps above freezing when looking at Water Vapor!

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#62 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:45 pm

Obviously very late at this point, but an RSCAT pass from about 12 hours ago had up to 70 kt wind barbs in the extratropically transitioning Choi-Wan. What a killer extratropical cyclone it is now.

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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Severe Tropical Storm

#63 Postby supercane » Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:47 pm

JMA still holding onto Choi-wan as tropical, though they admit it is likely toast very soon:
WTPQ21 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1523 CHOI-WAN (1523)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 40.3N 148.5E FAIR
MOVE N 30KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 550NM NORTHEAST 450NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 090000UTC 45.7N 147.6E 75NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

WTPQ31 RJTD 080000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR STS 1523 CHOI-WAN (1523)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 080000 UTC IS FAIR.
STS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
STS WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.
STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 6 HOURS.
5.REMARKS
THIS IS FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING ON STS 1523 CHOI-WAN (1523).=

CMA and KMA also still issuing advisories as well.
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#64 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:48 pm

Also, here was the 18Z UKMET analysis. Winds analyzed here are at 925 mb, but the swaths line up well with the RSCAT pass.

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#65 Postby supercane » Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:55 pm

:uarrow: Yep, JMA has storm warnings for much of Hokkaido and northern Honshu with Choi-wan still being a massive extratropical storm (960 mb) heading toward the Kuril Islands.
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Re: WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Severe Tropical Storm

#66 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 07, 2015 10:49 pm

70 knots peak matches well with that RSCAT pass.


2315093018 157N1680E 20
2315100100 167N1678E 20
2315100106 174N1676E 20
2315100112 178N1674E 20
2315100118 180N1672E 20
2315100200 182N1670E 20
2315100206 184N1668E 20
2315100212 185N1667E 30
2315100218 186N1666E 35
2315100300 188N1662E 35
2315100306 190N1651E 40
2315100312 191N1633E 40
2315100318 195N1624E 45
2315100400 202N1606E 50
2315100406 209N1588E 50
2315100412 213N1572E 50
2315100418 218N1559E 55
2315100418 218N1559E 55
2315100500 217N1547E 55
2315100500 217N1547E 55
2315100506 219N1537E 60
2315100506 219N1537E 60
2315100512 224N1527E 60
2315100512 224N1527E 60
2315100518 229N1518E 60
2315100518 229N1518E 60
2315100600 235N1511E 65
2315100600 235N1511E 65
2315100606 243N1507E 65
2315100606 243N1507E 65
2315100612 251N1506E 70
2315100612 251N1506E 70
2315100612 251N1506E 70
2315100618 265N1508E 70
2315100618 265N1508E 70
2315100618 265N1508E 70
2315100700 284N1509E 65
2315100700 284N1509E 65
2315100706 313N1512E 65
2315100706 313N1512E 65
2315100712 339N1512E 60
2315100712 339N1512E 60
2315100718 376N1504E 60
2315100718 376N1504E 60
NNNN
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