WPAC: MUJIGAE - Tropical Depression

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WPAC: MUJIGAE - Tropical Depression

#1 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:51 am

90W INVEST 150928 0600 9.0N 145.4E WPAC 15 1010
Last edited by Extratropical94 on Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:43 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:08 am

Another one?

This has some model support especially EURO which develops a TS/TY.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:22 am

CMC also develops this into Choi-wan as it emerges off the Luzon coast, strengthens it into a typhoon and does a sharp recurve to the northeast barely missing Hainan, China, and Hong kong.

EURO develops this into Koppu, that's right, it develops 2 other storms before this, as it traverses the SCS. It makes landfall over the northern tip of Hainan, strengthens it into a typhoon over the Gulf of Tonkin. Peaks it at 979 mb and literally stalls it for almost 3 days. Flooding anyone?
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:27 am

Interestly GFS hasn't tried to develop this at all...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:03 pm

12Z EURO still develops this into a typhoon in the Gulf of Tonkin...
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#6 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Sep 29, 2015 2:52 am

The Gulf of Tonkin typhoon smells fishy to me, especially for the past Euro runs that show a typhoon lurking around that spot for days. And it appears only the Canadian and Euro are hugging this one. I think the closest we can get is a moderate rain maker for the Philippines.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:31 am

Image

Center displaced southeast of the deep convection.
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#8 Postby ManilaTC » Tue Sep 29, 2015 8:34 pm

90W INVEST 150930 0000 11.1N 132.3E WPAC 20 1006

Wait a minute, its now starting to look good on satellite... Models bringing this system across Southern Luzon before the week ends.
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#9 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:08 pm

I actually like what's going on. The land areas of Luzon really needs some rain as it's currently drying up and will be even more as we head into 2016. If this one remains as a disorganized system then IMO there is a greater chance of a significant rainfall event. Weak TD's or TS's tend to blow sudden bursts of enormous convection.
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#10 Postby ManilaTC » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:27 pm

JMA "Minor" TD now...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 11N 131E WEST SLOWLY.
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Re:

#11 Postby ManilaTC » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:29 pm

dexterlabio wrote:I actually like what's going on. The land areas of Luzon really needs some rain as it's currently drying up and will be even more as we head into 2016. If this one remains as a disorganized system then IMO there is a greater chance of a significant rainfall event. Weak TD's or TS's tend to blow sudden bursts of enormous convection.


Yeah, orographic lifting... :)

How are u dex? Weve been here for the longest time, and hope to see you someday.
Perhaps at the westpacwx annual meet and greet this November? hehe
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#12 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Sep 29, 2015 9:55 pm

ManilaTC wrote:Yeah, orographic lifting... :)

How are u dex? Weve been here for the longest time, and hope to see you someday.
Perhaps at the westpacwx annual meet and greet this November? hehe



Yeah I also want to meet all of the Philippines-based weather watchers here. I just wasn't able to find time over the past years because of work and I've been in and out of the country so hopefully someday. :lol:
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#13 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 29, 2015 10:37 pm

JTWC has given this a medium.
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Re: WPAC: 90W - Tropical Depression

#14 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 2:41 am

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 300530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
250 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4N 131.4E TO 15.4N 121.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N 130.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
131.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 575 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING AND WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING. A 300053Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS THE OUTER PERIPHERIES OF AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT
WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EASTERLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS TOWARD THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010530Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 90W - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 2:42 am

TPPN11 PGTW 300609

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (NW OF PALAU)

B. 30/0532Z

C. 11.98N

D. 130.00E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 1.0 DT. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/0053Z 11.77N 130.37E MMHS


BERMEA
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Re: WPAC: 90W - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 3:50 pm

TXPQ23 KNES 301517
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 30/1432Z

C. 12.4N

D. 128.0E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CURVED BANDING WRAPS .25 FOR A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE
ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO
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#17 Postby ManilaTC » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:36 pm

Should get upgraded... ASCAT METOP-A pass shows 30kt barbs to the NE
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Re: WPAC: 90W - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:09 pm

TPPN11 PGTW 302359

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (E OF PHILIPPINES)

B. 30/2332Z

C. 13.56N

D. 125.42E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN
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#19 Postby ManilaTC » Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:53 pm

Looks like JTWC will upgrade to 22W!

22W TWENTYTWO 151001 0000 13.7N 125.5E WPAC 25 1004
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#20 Postby ManilaTC » Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:28 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300529Z SEP 15//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 13.7N 125.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 125.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.8N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.7N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.7N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.0N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.7N 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.1N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.3N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 125.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 267 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
010000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND
020300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 300529Z SEP 15 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 300530)//
NNNN
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