WPAC: MUJIGAE - Tropical Depression

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Re: WPAC: MUJIGAE - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 02, 2015 7:13 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 OCT 2015 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 17:00:43 N Lon : 118:10:36 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 994.8mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.0 2.6

Center Temp : -49.3C Cloud Region Temp : -57.7C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.58 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.96 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 18:00:36 N Lon: 117:10:11 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 36.5 degrees
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#42 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 02, 2015 7:39 am

Looks to me like 50-55 knots.

As usual, the JTWC is being well the JTWC.
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Re: WPAC: MUJIGAE - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:57 pm

TXPQ23 KNES 030253
TCSWNP

A. 22W (MUJIGAE)

B. 03/0201Z

C. 18.7N

D. 114.9E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...9/10 BANDING FOR DT=3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

We should have a typhoon out of this by afternoon, its organizing fast.
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#44 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:07 am

Mujigae has a clear, well defined eye that is very symmetrical with a brilliant spiral band formation on satellite. Its true it doesn't look quite as strong on IR. It looks like its between 65-85 knots right now and JTWC says its 55 knots. What is going on here?

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#45 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:08 am

It's the JWTC, you expect real intensity estimates?

I'd go with 70 knots now.
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#46 Postby NotoSans » Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:27 am

I don't know why JTWC goes with the MET.

TPPN11 PGTW 030616

A. TROPICAL STORM 22W (MUJIGAE)

B. 03/0532Z

C. 18.85N

D. 114.25E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY DG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.5. MET AND PT
YIELD A 3.5. DBO MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA
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#47 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:36 am

22W MUJIGAE 151003 0600 18.9N 114.2E WPAC 60 978
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Re:

#48 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:51 am

NotoSans wrote:I don't know why JTWC goes with the MET.


Neither do I. Eye scene types are suppose to be clear cut.
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Re: WPAC: MUJIGAE - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 03, 2015 2:59 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (MUJIGAE) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (MUJIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 204 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AS IT DEVELOPED A 15-NM
BANDING EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI EYE
FEATURE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE
IMPROVED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND WARM SST. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS MUJIGAE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING
LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA PRIOR TO TAU 24. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION,
PEAKING AT 65 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARDS, TS 22W WILL RAPIDLY ERODE
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MUJIGAE - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 03, 2015 5:33 am

TXPQ23 KNES 030904
TCSWNP

A. 22W (MUJIGAE)

B. 03/0832Z

C. 19.3N

D. 114.0E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DG EYE EMBEDDED IN DG AND SURROUNDED BY MG FOR DT=4.0.
MET=4.5 WITH PT=4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI
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Re: WPAC: MUJIGAE - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 03, 2015 5:38 am

Convection increasing around the more well defined eye. It;s a typhoon now...

Image


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Re: WPAC: MUJIGAE - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 03, 2015 7:56 am

Everyone's been waiting for this...Finally...

22W MUJIGAE 151003 1200 19.5N 113.3E WPAC 65 974
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#53 Postby NotoSans » Sat Oct 03, 2015 8:22 am

Edit: To add disclaimer

JMA also upgraded it to a TY
Possible RI trend occurring as observed in satellite imagery. CDO consolidating with very cold cloud top surrounding the eye.

WTPQ20 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1522 MUJIGAE (1522) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 19.5N 113.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 21.7N 109.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 051200UTC 23.5N 108.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 061200UTC 25.2N 108.0E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
Last edited by NotoSans on Sat Oct 03, 2015 9:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: MUJIGAE - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 03, 2015 8:28 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (MUJIGAE) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (MUJIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A 15-NM BANDING EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE ON THE EIR LOOP AND ON THE 031142Z SSMI-S
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND REFLECTS
THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND WARM SST. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY MUJIGAE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING
LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA PRIOR TO TAU 24. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION,
PEAKING AT 70 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, TY 22W WILL RAPIDLY ERODE
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MUJIGAE - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 03, 2015 8:34 am

It's rapidly intensifying alright...

Latest track has it passing over a very populated major city, Zhanjiang, home to +7 million people...
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#56 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 03, 2015 9:10 am

its not 65 kt... may be closer to 85 kts
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#57 Postby NotoSans » Sat Oct 03, 2015 9:19 am

JTWC loves to go with MET...even when DT is quite clear cut

TPPN11 PGTW 031215

A. TROPICAL STORM 22W (MUJIGAE)

B. 03/1132Z

C. 19.49N

D. 113.31E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. MET AND PT
YIELD A 4.0. DBO MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/0710Z 18.90N 114.47E SSMI
03/0928Z 19.20N 114.10E MMHS


BERMEA
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#58 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 03, 2015 9:42 am

Based on the DT from JTWC, CMISS ADT estimates, the old DT from SAB, that would supports around 80 knts there. However, I'd go with 85 knots now.
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#59 Postby NotoSans » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:27 am

This is getting ridiculous. I just did a six-hour average for DT and obtained a value of 5.17. Three-hour average is definitely at 5.5. I don't know why JTWC keeps on going with the MET.

TPPN11 PGTW 031519 COR

A. TYPHOON 22W (MUJIGAE)

B. 03/1432Z

C. 19.75N

D. 112.56E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.5. MET AND PT
YIELD A 4.0. DBO MET. COR LINE A.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/0928Z 19.20N 114.10E MMHS
03/1101Z 19.37N 113.50E SSMS
03/1142Z 19.48N 113.37E SSMS


BERMEA
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Re: WPAC: MUJIGAE - Typhoon

#60 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 03, 2015 4:14 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (MUJIGAE) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (MUJIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM EAST OF
HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED AS DEEPENED CONVECTIVE BANDS
TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO A 19-NM DIAMETER EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE ON THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS RAISED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE AND AN INCREASE IN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES (RANGING
FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 22W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-
LEVEL POINT-SOURCE. MUJIGAE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY MUJIGAE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES
SOUTHERN CHINA. MUJIGAE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION
AND WILL DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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