WPAC: MUJIGAE - Tropical Depression

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Yellow Evan
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#61 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 03, 2015 5:36 pm

NotoSans wrote:This is getting ridiculous. I just did a six-hour average for DT and obtained a value of 5.17. Three-hour average is definitely at 5.5. I don't know why JTWC keeps on going with the MET.


You use MET if the DT is not clear cut, but with an eye scene type, it should be. It either meets the require3d thickness or it doesn't.
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#62 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 03, 2015 5:37 pm

Looks around 105 knots to me. Better than Joaquin, which is 130 knots.
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#63 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Oct 03, 2015 9:01 pm

Yeah, this one has likely been pretty underestimated. Kudos to the ECMWF for picking up on it when it did; it was developing this well before any other global model.
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#64 Postby NotoSans » Sat Oct 03, 2015 9:05 pm

T5.5 from JMA...and then they dropped the intensity to 65 kt.
I have to say the agencies have done quite a bad job this time.

WTPQ20 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1522 MUJIGAE (1522)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 20.5N 111.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 22.8N 108.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 060000UTC 24.0N 108.0E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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#65 Postby supercane » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:31 pm

There has been catch-up, but still below raw Dvorak. CMA and JTWC have it at 95kt.
WTPQ20 BABJ 040300
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY MUJIGAE 1522 (1522) INITIAL TIME 040300 UTC
00HR 20.9N 111.0E 940HPA 50M/S
30KTS WINDS 200KM NORTHEAST
200KM SOUTHEAST
200KM SOUTHWEST
200KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 80KM NORTHEAST
80KM SOUTHEAST
60KM SOUTHWEST
80KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 40KM NORTHEAST
40KM SOUTHEAST
40KM SOUTHWEST
40KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NW 20KM/H=

WTPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (MUJIGAE) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 20.5N 111.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 111.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.5N 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 22.5N 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.5N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 24.7N 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 111.1E.
TYPHOON 22W (MUJIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 316 NM EAST OF
HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (CHOI-WAN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Though see SSD's 02Z classification of 6.0 (115kt, which would be equal to Hurricane Joaquin).
TXPQ23 KNES 040220
TCSWNP
A. 22W (MUJIGAE)
B. 04/0201Z
C. 20.8N
D. 111.2E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...OW EYE EMBEDDED IN B AND SURROUNDED BY W FOR DT=6.0.
MET=5.0 WITH PT=5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

...SALEMI

JMA will issue its 3Z update within the half hour, let's see what they say.
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#66 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:41 pm

TPPN11 PGTW 040300

A. TYPHOON 22W (MUJIGAE)

B. 04/0232Z

C. 20.88N

D. 111.11E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. MET YIELDS A 5.0 WHILE PT YIELD A 5.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/2202Z 20.17N 111.78E MMHS


LEMBK

Why is FT 5.5? The Dvorak bulletin doesn't even say, but appears to be based off PT again. Why????
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#67 Postby NotoSans » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:52 pm

JMA maintains at 65 kt at 03Z. I would say 90 kt is a better estimate.

WTPQ20 RJTD 040300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1522 MUJIGAE (1522)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040300UTC 21.0N 111.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050300UTC 23.1N 108.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 060000UTC 24.0N 108.0E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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#68 Postby Krit-tonkla » Sun Oct 04, 2015 4:19 am

06Z JTWC is 115 knots cat 4.

WTPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (MUJIGAE) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 21.3N 110.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 110.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 22.4N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.4N 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.7N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 110.0E.
TYPHOON 22W (MUJIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 252 NM EAST OF
HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND
050900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (CHOI-WAN) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MUJIGAE - Typhoon

#69 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 04, 2015 7:58 am

Woah...

Mujigae made landfall as a Category 4 monster 115 knots?!?

:eek:
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#70 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 04, 2015 8:01 am

JMA never budged.
WTPQ20 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1522 MUJIGAE (1522)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 21.3N 110.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 23.1N 108.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 060600UTC 24.0N 108.0E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

WTPQ20 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1522 MUJIGAE (1522)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 21.9N 109.6E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 23.4N 108.1E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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Re: WPAC: MUJIGAE - Typhoon

#71 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 04, 2015 8:05 am

Talk about a direct hit...

Zhejiang, population 7 million, just got the eyewall...

Image

Image

Image

Image

2215092900 102N1369E 15
2215092906 104N1358E 15
2215092912 108N1336E 15
2215092918 113N1317E 15
2215093000 118N1304E 20
2215093006 121N1293E 20
2215093012 123N1281E 20
2215093018 126N1270E 20
2215100100 137N1255E 25
2215100106 144N1240E 35
2215100112 152N1227E 35
2215100118 155N1214E 30
2215100200 161N1199E 30
2215100206 165N1191E 35
2215100212 171N1178E 45
2215100218 177N1165E 55
2215100218 177N1165E 55
2215100300 184N1154E 55
2215100300 184N1154E 55
2215100306 189N1142E 60
2215100306 189N1142E 60
2215100312 195N1133E 65
2215100312 195N1133E 65
2215100318 198N1122E 80
2215100318 198N1122E 80
2215100318 198N1122E 80
2215100400 205N1115E 95
2215100400 205N1115E 95
2215100400 205N1115E 95
2215100406 213N1104E 115
2215100406 213N1104E 115
2215100406 213N1104E 115
NNNN

Correction: It's not Zhejiang the province, it's Zhanjiang...
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Oct 04, 2015 9:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#72 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 04, 2015 8:19 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Looks around 105 knots to me. Better than Joaquin, which is 130 knots.


Yeah that's interesting...Majority of Joaquin's life it never got a well defined eye. A major hurricane with no eye?

Ridiculous. Makes you wonder... :roll:
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Re: Re:

#73 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Oct 04, 2015 9:01 am

euro6208 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Looks around 105 knots to me. Better than Joaquin, which is 130 knots.


Yeah that's interesting...Majority of Joaquin's life it never got a well defined eye. A major hurricane with no eye?

Ridiculous. Makes you wonder... :roll:


Whether a major cane has a well defined eye or not doesn't matter. As soon as it reaches 100 kts it is a major.

The problem isn't Joaquin being stronger than estimated, the problem is that many WPAC storms are under- or overestimated due to missing data. Joaquin is actually a very good example for how sat appearance can fool everyone, so the only ridiculous thing is that no effort is put into examining storms in the WPAC more thoroughly.
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Re: Re:

#74 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 04, 2015 9:36 am

Extratropical94 wrote:
euro6208 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Looks around 105 knots to me. Better than Joaquin, which is 130 knots.


Yeah that's interesting...Majority of Joaquin's life it never got a well defined eye. A major hurricane with no eye?

Ridiculous. Makes you wonder... :roll:


Whether a major cane has a well defined eye or not doesn't matter. As soon as it reaches 100 kts it is a major.

The problem isn't Joaquin being stronger than estimated, the problem is that many WPAC storms are under- or overestimated due to missing data. Joaquin is actually a very good example for how sat appearance can fool everyone, so the only ridiculous thing is that no effort is put into examining storms in the WPAC more thoroughly.


It makes us wonder just how strong WPAC systems get...
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#75 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 04, 2015 10:42 am

WTPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (MUJIGAE) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 21.9N 109.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 109.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 22.8N 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 24.1N 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 109.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (MUJIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 208 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING (TCB) WRAPPING INTO
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT REMAINS OVER LAND, JUST NORTH
OF THE GULF OF TONKIN. THE BD CURVE ENHANCEMENT SHOWS RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING CENTRAL CONVECTION; HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. A 041130Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE FURTHER SHOWS THAT THE ONLY REMAINING INTENSE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN THE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE TCB IN THE EIR LOOP AND SUPPORTED
BY SATELLITE FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED BASED ON THE WEAKENING
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND; HOWEVER, THE STORM
MAINTAINS TYPHOON INTENSITY. TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD, FURTHER INLAND, AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE DUE TO THE
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION, LEADING TO ITS COMPLETE
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W
(CHOI-WAN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#76 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 04, 2015 10:56 am

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#77 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 04, 2015 2:22 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 041500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1522 MUJIGAE (1522) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041500UTC 22.3N 109.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 051500UTC 23.7N 108.7E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

WTPQ20 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1522 MUJIGAE (1522)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 22.6N 108.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 23.9N 109.2E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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#78 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 04, 2015 8:45 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1522 MUJIGAE (1522)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 23N 108E
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 1008HPA =
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And not a creature was stirring as MUJIGAE happened

#79 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Oct 04, 2015 10:54 pm

euro6208 wrote:Talk about a direct hit...

Zhejiang, population 7 million, just got the eyewall...

Its the biggest news story no one is talking about.

euro6208 wrote:Yeah that's interesting...Majority of Joaquin's life it never got a well defined eye. A major hurricane with no eye?

Ridiculous. Makes you wonder... :roll:

Yeah Joaquin looked so bad in its later stages of life, shocking it was anywhere near 115 knots at that point. It seems like it was just us 2 who noticed this for some reason.
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Re: WPAC: MUJIGAE - Tropical Depression

#80 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 05, 2015 4:58 am

A forecaster’s worst nightmare: Typhoon Mujigae intensifies to Cat 4 just before landfall
On Saturday, Typhoon Mujigae was forecast to hit Zhanjiang, China, about 200 miles west of Hong Kong, as a Category 1 storm. However, in the twelve hours before landfall, Mujigae surprised forecasters by rapidly intensifying from a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds to an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds, and made landfall on the north side of the city of Zhanjiang near 1 am EDT Sunday (05 UTC.) An unexpected rapid intensification just before landfall in a heavily populated area is every hurricane forecaster's nightmare, and with Zhanjiang'a population being 7 million, there is the potential that Mujigae caused heavy loss of life and severe damage due to lack of preparedness for a Category 4 typhoon. The airport in Zhanjiang, which appears to have just missed getting hit by the weaker southern eyewall of the typhoon, recorded sustained winds of 65 mph at 2 pm Sunday local time, and rainfall of 5.20". The embedded tweet below shows Mujigae making landfall.

http://twitter.com/DanLindsey77/status/650698436300271616/photo/1
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