ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#41 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:54 pm

the Ensembles won't help much in this case. They are blend of many solutions, you'll have to look at them individually since we're not looking at a broad scale pattern. Anyway, the Euro is like a supercharged early season nor'easter :lol:

#42 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:55 pm

12Z Ensembles:

#43 Postby **xironman** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:01 pm

tolakram wrote:That's the 0Z, we have to wait for the 12Z.

Your right, my bad

#44 Postby **Extratropical94** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:15 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z Ensembles:

http://i.imgur.com/Faz3Ucs.png

How come it says 35 kts current intensity and Tropical Storm 11L?

Is this the result of a wrong initialization or a hint that an upgrade is imminent?

PTrackerLA · #45 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:11 pm

WOW

, those sure are some frightening model runs for the east coast. This whole situation seems extremely complex but it's time to start taking this system very seriously. Could this be the coup for the EURO that restores some faith in the model this season? We shall see.

#46 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:35 pm

Looking at the ensembles (27-51) on weatherbell,

14 out of 25 have a sub 1000mb storm at 4 days, 8 have 990mb or less.

#47 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:36 pm

tolakram wrote:Looking at the ensembles on weatherbell,

14 out of 25 have a sub 1000mb storm at 4 days, 8 have 990mb or less.

I counted 17 of 50 EC ensembles develop 11 into a hurricane. Very little model or ensemble agreement on 11.

hurricanedude · #48 Postby **hurricanedude** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:42 pm

wxman whats your early take on this thing strength....movement and possible EC impacts......again just your early thoughts

LarryWx · #49 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:01 pm

18Z GFS continues the more threatening SW trend vs earlier GFS runs. The last four GFS runs have gotten progressively more threatening due to more SW positions early on. It is playing catch-up to reality.

floridasun78 · #50 Postby **floridasun78** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:20 pm

ECMWF 12z got close north Bahamas moving it north after that http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=510

floridasun78 · #51 Postby **floridasun78** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:23 pm

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0 do bit close what ECMWF dd too

floridasun78 · #52 Postby **floridasun78** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:24 pm

floridasun78 wrote:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=jma&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015092812&fh=156&xpos=0&ypos=0 do bit close what ECMWF did too

#53 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:28 pm

MU is keeping this as a distinct system now until landfall in New Jersey

TheStormExpert · #54 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:34 pm

Alyono wrote:MU is keeping this as a distinct system now until landfall in New Jersey

Do you mean it no longer shows it becoming Extra-Tropical?

#55 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:41 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Alyono wrote:MU is keeping this as a distinct system now until landfall in New Jersey

Do you mean it no longer shows it becoming Extra-Tropical?

it no longer shows it merging with the front. It is a distinct system. Looks to have a large area of TS winds to the north and east of the center

#56 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:46 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z Ensembles:

Those literally take it right over me!

#57 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 6:55 pm

The 18Z HWRF. A major hurricane hit into New Jersey again. Folks this is just 99 hours from now:

ninel conde · #58 Postby **ninel conde** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:01 pm

that would be worse than sandy.

pgoss11 · #59 Postby **pgoss11** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:01 pm

gatorcane wrote:The 18Z HWRF. A major hurricane hit into New Jersey again. Folks this is just 99 hours from now:

I really hope this is wrong. They've worked so hard up there to clean up after Sandy. This would be just terrible..

LarryWx · #60 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:35 pm

ninel conde wrote:that would be worse than sandy.

Ninel,
Let's hope the bizarre 12Z Euro doesn't occur. Wouldn't that be a hit on you and make it three big hits on you since Isabel? Of course, the odds of such an extreme scenario verifying are very low.

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