ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[Jevo]

This just showed up my Twitter feed I found it relevant and hilarious figured I'd share

[stormlover2013]

Guys it still shows it missing east coast

[ninel conde]

Guys it still shows it missing east coast

I think it will miss but if it gets any closer the outer banks and se va will have a major coastal flood.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Guys it still shows it missing east coast

One word my friend, trends. Anyone who has followed the tropics for years knows the trend is your friend, or enemy in certain cases. These continued undulations in model output are troubling.

[stormlover2013]

And gfs trend has been horrible for this hurricane

[windnrain]

Yup. Everyone said trend is your friend when GFS started trending north then OTS.

Same thing applies.

[ninel conde]

JB hasnt tweeted about nam or GFS yet.

[Alyono]

UKMET makes a massive east shift. It is very similar to the EC

[stormlover2013]

And u can't even count the nam that's worse then the Cmc

[SunnyThoughts]

Guys it still shows it missing east coast

yes stormlover, thankfully. But I was taught long ago about models to watch trends. Not the exact location any landmass is hit by a storm, but the trends are what you watch. When all the models, ( or the major ones) start trending in one direction..They are on to something. Now whether the euro trends west at all is to be determined in a couple hours. And who knows, even if it does trend west a little, tomorrow they could all trend back east again considering the fluid dynamics in play from Ida and the cut off.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Too much uncertainty still at this point for my liking. Hopefully the model trends will sync up, more or less, tomorrow.

[ninel conde]

And u can't even count the nam that's worse then the Cmc

true, its certainly not going to hit SC

[stormlover2013]

Nam is so bad, nobody uses the nam for hurricane anymore, gfs could be right but gfs has done horrible with this....Cmc,nam,navy, they have all done horrendous

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Nam is so bad, nobody uses the nam for hurricane anymore, gfs could be right but gfs has done horrible with this....Cmc,nam,navy, they have all done horrendous

Of course every model has been horrendous this season, thus why I have little confidence in the projected long range track of Joaquin at this point.

[Happy Pelican]

Guys it still shows it missing east coast

It's already flooding here (Jersey shore) from the first storm.

[Hammy]

Nam is so bad, nobody uses the nam for hurricane anymore, gfs could be right but gfs has done horrible with this....Cmc,nam,navy, they have all done horrendous

NAM is decent but you have to use the 4km version (goes out to 68 hours). The 32km/16km are worse than CMC.

[stormlover2013]

No gfs and euro have done ok, euro has done pretty good once the system has formed and struggled on weak systems but euro has been dang good the last 2-3 weeks

[Ivanhater]

The spilt flow in the situation is so thin and close..any minor shift makes it go way right or way left....this case is one to be studied later on..literally which flow separated by a thin line does it go with? Just my opinion

[stormlover2013]

I have 3 buddies that are meteorologist and if I told them the nam is decent they would look at my and laugh

[PTrackerLA]

Will be interesting to see the 00z GFS Ensembles with that significant westward shift in the OP. Definitely not a shoe-in OTS maybe even less-so than this afternoon, Just my opinion of course.