ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

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SunnyThoughts
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1241 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:32 pm

Ivanhater wrote:The spilt flow in the situation is so thin and close..any minor shift makes it go way right or way left....this case is one to be studied later on..literally which flow separated by a thin line does it go with? Just my opinion



Exactly Ivan, and we may not know if it takes the way right route, or the way left route, until it actually starts doing it. That is what makes it such a nail biter.



Not a forecast, stay tuned to NHC for official information.
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#1242 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:45 pm

0zUKMET in 72hrs has Joaquin close to Bermuda..

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#1243 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:48 pm

Image

CMC into NC area
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1244 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:50 pm

Lol Cmc worse than nam
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#1245 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:51 pm

Everything is bad but the Euro right?
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#1246 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:55 pm

All these different models have their purpose. Some show the synoptic set up better than others..some are better at showing low level as opposed to upper level conditions etc. .There was a post last year I think, listing all the models, and what the NHC or forecasters used from each model. Wish I knew who posted it :(
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1247 Postby Cdavis » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:55 pm

Let's be honest, although the Euro has been "most of the time" right in the short range models, let's thank God that the E US coast has not received a blow from a major storm this year. Otherwise there would have been very little time to be prepared. And I know, I know always be prepared.
Last edited by Cdavis on Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1248 Postby Alyono » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:56 pm

CMC continues to forecast landfall in NC
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Re:

#1249 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:59 pm

windnrain wrote:Everything is bad but the Euro right?


All model data is worth looking at, even as just for a reference. The EURO is not the be-all, end-all model, as some people are erroneously stating in this thread.

The optimal track is the EURO solution, where it avoids the EC USA & Bermuda altogether. But to merely dismiss every model run because of the EURO is, frankly, stupid.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1250 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:00 am

What a dynamic fluid situation...Just a few miles can get pulled west or east....wow
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#1251 Postby hohnywx » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:03 am

Just to recap every model came west so far except the UKMET.

Of course, the biggest test will be the Euro in an hour
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#1252 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:06 am

HWRF not believing MU, it is well east
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Re:

#1253 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:12 am

Alyono wrote:HWRF not believing MU, it is well east


This will be a big case study...it moves well south of models...now how far west does it get..with the dynamic situation..Every inch counts on the turn
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Re: Re:

#1254 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:22 am

Ivanhater wrote:
Alyono wrote:HWRF not believing MU, it is well east


This will be a big case study...it moves well south of models...now how far west does it get..with the dynamic situation..Every inch counts on the turn



Is 75W the magic number for models shifting back to a landfalling storm probability?
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#1255 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:25 am

Alright, models that have landfall or near landfall solutions:

GGEM
CMC
GFS
NAM
GFDL
GEPS
Last edited by windnrain on Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:30 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#1256 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:25 am

Image
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#1257 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:29 am

GFDL with a big east shift
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Re:

#1258 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:31 am

Alyono wrote:GFDL with a big east shift


Seems like a consensus is forming around the GFS on a New England/NYC area hit.

Cant wait to see Euro.
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#1259 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:33 am

Anyone going to be able to post some Euro?
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1260 Postby Cdavis » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:33 am

Battle of the models. "Alyono" how the trough is....do you think this will be a substantial game changer in the projected path or no?
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