ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

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TimeZone

Re: Re:

#1261 Postby TimeZone » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:36 am

windnrain wrote:
Alyono wrote:GFDL with a big east shift


Seems like a consensus is forming around the GFS on a New England/NYC area hit.

Cant wait to see Euro.


No it's not. The consensus is clearly well offshore. It doesn't even look like a threat to Nova Scotia in Canada at this point to me.
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Re: Re:

#1262 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:43 am

TimeZone wrote:
windnrain wrote:
Alyono wrote:GFDL with a big east shift


Seems like a consensus is forming around the GFS on a New England/NYC area hit.

Cant wait to see Euro.


No it's not. The consensus is clearly well offshore. It doesn't even look like a threat to Nova Scotia in Canada at this point to me.


Of the major models, besides the euro and HWRF, most take it off the coast of Long Island and Boston. Some take it closer inland, some take it slightly out to sea.
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#1263 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:44 am

The GFS today was quite a shift west.
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#1264 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:50 am

Euro anyone?
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1265 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:56 am

0Z Euro hour 30 75 miles further north than 12Z Euro hour 42
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#1266 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:57 am

Keep the updates coming
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#1267 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:01 am

0Z Euro hour 48, still north of 12Z Euro. 150 miles ESE of 12Z GFS. Likely headed ots but we'll see.

Edit: will be further west of Bermuda by good distance I think
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#1268 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:03 am

Larry - Interesting. Sounds like the euro has moved west compared to previous, still OTS but North of path means west of path unless it cuts east at a steeper rate than previous euro.
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#1269 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:05 am

:uarrow: 0Z Euro clearly less OTS and a little faster than 12Z Euro
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1270 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:06 am

Keep me up to date, I really want to see where Euro takes it.

That it is shifting west is eyebrow raising with several models shifting west to landfall.
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#1271 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:07 am

I'm hearing through 72h, 75-100 miles west
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Re:

#1272 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:08 am

windnrain wrote:I'm hearing through 72h, 75-100 miles west


That's about right and also little faster.

It is quiet in here.
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#1273 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:09 am

Keep it up Larry, I want to hear the 90h
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1274 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:10 am

Is that the negatively titled cutoff low at the Ga/SC border at the 48 hour mark?
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#1275 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:11 am

150 miles west at 80 hours
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1276 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:12 am

I'm following on the hi-res weatherbell, there seems to be a lot more interaction with the cut-off low/trough over SC in this run. Much more intense precipitation bands connecting the two features and a bit closer. Interesting.
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#1277 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:15 am

OTS at 96 but good bit closer.

Side note: huge rains still centered SC but not as devastating as 12Z Euro there from upper low.
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#1278 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:15 am

So - Every model has shifted west.
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#1279 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:16 am

Interesting that between the 24 and 48 hour it seems to be a ENE motion and then it punts it to the NNE before Bermuda in the 72 hour frame. It really wants to get into that weakness ex-Ida wants to make.
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Re:

#1280 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:17 am

windnrain wrote:So - Every model has shifted west.


No, I know that the 0Z CMC is a little further north hit on NC vs 12Z.
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