ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

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windnrain
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#1281 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:18 am

True Larry. I think it looks like a consensus is building around Long Island (not staying that to be scary, just models that are south of that have moved north, models east have moved west)
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#1282 Postby TimeZone » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:18 am

Euro a threat to Atlantic Canada?
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#1283 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:21 am

Well thats the first time the Euro has actually shifted west at all in quite a while. Hopefully the west trends don't continue in subsequent runs.
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Re:

#1284 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:23 am

TimeZone wrote:Euro a threat to Atlantic Canada?


Not too much. It is ~same distance from there as 12Z Euro and further away than 0Z GFS, which skirts them.
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#1285 Postby Blizzard96x » Fri Oct 02, 2015 3:05 am

spiral wrote:Image
UKMET now west again landfalls on the the next frame on the point of North Carolina.


UKMET is still east, not sure what you are referring to.
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#1286 Postby caneman » Fri Oct 02, 2015 3:55 am

5 am,update all models have shifted west. Is this the beginning of a trend towards the west? Euro latching on to gfs idea?,maybe not out to sea after all? We'll see. And that my friends is why you don't model hug and shows why the nhc uses a blend. disclaimer: All of this is my opinion only.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1287 Postby caneman » Fri Oct 02, 2015 4:08 am

Yikes on those wave heights :eek:
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1288 Postby hiflyer » Fri Oct 02, 2015 4:25 am

caneman wrote:Yikes on those wave heights :eek:


Agreed does not bode well from Hatteras to Cape Cod including the Chesapeake Bay. Will be interesting to see what the US Navy does with it's fleet in Newport News/Norfolk.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1289 Postby xironman » Fri Oct 02, 2015 4:51 am

6z is waaay east. I pick a 30-71 benchmark. If any model goes to the left it has a chance to the right, ots.

Image

edited because I can't tell my left from my right at this time of the morning
Last edited by xironman on Fri Oct 02, 2015 5:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1290 Postby Nimbus » Fri Oct 02, 2015 4:56 am

That would be telling if the models didn't have the cut off low analyzed correctly in the earlier runs..
Axis of the low was in western Tennessee yesterday, appears to be dropping south along the Mississippi/Alabama state line this morning.

I had the Axis of the low dropping through Mississippi and it still *could* roll SSW a little. If the models show the axis over the Carolinas they might still be too far east with the track. Also be interesting to see if the G IV-SP missions pick up any ridging anomolies north of Joaquin, that would be telling as well.

Official track shift back to Long Island?
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1291 Postby Nimbus » Fri Oct 02, 2015 5:23 am

The cut off low is quite a bit NW of that position currently.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

I think the problem might be the ridging that will build in the gap E of the Cut off low and W of the ULL near Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1292 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 02, 2015 5:25 am

And the 0z Euro keeps sticking to its previous runs, 06z GFS goes back to the far right once again joining the Euro once again.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1293 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Fri Oct 02, 2015 5:28 am

Not going to Hit the US Guys!!! Great News, Dreading the reports from the Bahamas!!! :( :( :(
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#1294 Postby xironman » Fri Oct 02, 2015 5:31 am

Yeah when the only two models showing a hit are the CMC and the, ahem, NAVGEM you know it is kind of over.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1295 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 02, 2015 5:47 am

spiral wrote:
NDG wrote:And the 0z Euro keeps sticking to its previous runs, 06z GFS goes back to the far right once again joining the Euro once again.


So you don't believe the storm can phase will the ULL.


Nope, when Joaquin approaches the 30th latitude it should feel some effects of the cut off ULL to pull it more poleward but it will still find a scape route out to sea, there would have to be a massive ridge in the north Atlantic to retrograde westward toward SE Canada (similar pattern when Sandy) to push Joaquin back towards the mid Atlantic States or NE US for the crappy CMC, BAM models and NAM to come to fruition. Not saying that it could come very close to New England but even that I am giving it a low chance.


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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1296 Postby caneman » Fri Oct 02, 2015 5:50 am

I haven't rechecked the.models. didn't the Euro move west by nearly 150 miles last night?
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#1297 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 02, 2015 5:52 am

06z tropical models, no major change from the previous 0z run, if anything some have shifted more to the right after 96 hrs.

Image
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1298 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:00 am

caneman wrote:I haven't rechecked the.models. didn't the Euro move west by nearly 150 miles last night?


Yes, but only between forecasted hours of 96 & 120, still has it finding a scape route out to sea after 120 hrs, closer now to the NHC forecast track.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1299 Postby xironman » Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:01 am

NDG wrote:Nope, when Joaquin approaches the 30th latitude it should feel some effects of the cut off ULL to pull it more poleward but it will still find a scape route out to sea, there would have to be a massive ridge in the north Atlantic to retrograde westward toward SE Canada (similar pattern when Sandy) to push Joaquin back towards the mid Atlantic States or NE US for the crappy CMC, BAM models and NAM to come to fruition. Not saying that it could come very close to New England but even that I am giving it a low chance.


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I was going to post a monster hit from the NAM just to set everyone off. The CMC is not totally awful with tropical tracks, now cyclogenisis, that is another thing.
Last edited by xironman on Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1300 Postby caneman » Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:03 am

I don't see half of them to the right verifiying. The escape route is at 70 now and pushing west. Half of the models show it escaping through 68. Further, euro did shift west I believe 125 to 150 miles and I believe ukmet is now also showing a landfall. I'm not convinced there will be a hit but I think it will escape closer to land than what is advertised. Imho.
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