ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

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NDG
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1301 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:10 am

caneman wrote:I don't see half of them to the right verifiying. The escape route is at 70 now and pushing west. Half of the models show it escaping through 68. Further, euro did shift west I believe 125 to 150 miles and I believe ukmet is now also showing a landfall. I'm not convinced there will be a hit but I think it will escape closer to land than what is advertised. Imho.


No the UKMET is not showing a landfall, if anything it shifted even more to the right than last night's Euro. Like I said a little while ago the only ones showing a landfall are the BAM models, NAM and CMCI.

If some of you guys (not you caneman) want to go against the Euro, GFS & UKMET go right ahead, but make sure you put your disclaimer.

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Last edited by NDG on Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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caneman
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#1302 Postby caneman » Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:12 am

I'm not convinced or saying there will be a landfall. I am saying I believe it will get closer to the north Carolina coast. Not sure by how much just yet. Well see how it plays out. My opinion only.
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Re:

#1303 Postby smithtim » Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:25 am

NDG wrote:06z tropical models, no major change from the previous 0z run, if anything some have shifted more to the right after 96 hrs.

Image


WOW that's a divergence early...usually the short run is tight then divided later 72-96++


IMHO we've gotta stay vigilant until it turns & speeds north...until timing & location of that is fine tuned....


BTW
It would be a very interesting post season study to take a look at this (play with ivc see what's moving w/e) and I expect that analysis would give more insight to both the working of the models and fundamental physics / fluidmechanics... ok yeah you can laugh but I'm a PhD prof so always dreaming up homework students research...its my job LOL
Last edited by smithtim on Fri Oct 02, 2015 10:27 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Disclaimer: while I am PhD who does research I'm rambling here so this post should be taken only for entertainment...use nhc.noaa.gov for official forecasts!

FLoridian living round here for a while: 2016 Matthew & 1998 Earl lived barrier island landfall. Also lived nearby/inland for: 2017 Irma & 2004 Frances,Jeanne & 1992 Andrew

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1304 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:44 am

All I know is we have some folks on here that gotta realize that nam,Cmc,navy,gfdl or horrible models....stick with the gfs and euro....euro has been most consistent got the last 3 weeks it's like it has a 30 game hitting streak going stick with that....stop saying u know what they say trend is ur friend
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Re:

#1305 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:48 am

caneman wrote:I'm not convinced or saying there will be a landfall. I am saying I believe it will get closer to the north Carolina coast. Not sure by how much just yet. Well see how it plays out. My opinion only.
That low that formed on the front should keep him well away from the Carolinas. They are going to get hammered with rain though from the low
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1306 Postby caneman » Fri Oct 02, 2015 7:16 am

Weatherwatcher98 wrote:
caneman wrote:I'm not convinced or saying there will be a landfall. I am saying I believe it will get closer to the north Carolina coast. Not sure by how much just yet. Well see how it plays out. My opinion only.
That low that formed on the front should keep him well away from the Carolinas. They are going to get hammered with rain though from the low
the low you are referencing seems too far west and seems to be pulling moisture more northerly. Well see how it all pans out iny opinion
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1307 Postby caneman » Fri Oct 02, 2015 7:19 am

stormlover2013 wrote:All I know is we have some folks on here that gotta realize that nam,Cmc,navy,gfdl or horrible models....stick with the gfs and euro....euro has been most consistent got the last 3 weeks it's like it has a 30 game hitting streak going stick with that....stop saying u know what they say trend is ur friend
You do realize that a 72 hour track can be off a couple hundred miles off, right? And, it's very common to see models trend one way.and back another way? I'm basing my ideas on live visual obs. It's just an opinion so chill that's what this board is for.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1308 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Oct 02, 2015 7:24 am

Yes I do know that but come on fellows stop using those models.....
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#1309 Postby caneman » Fri Oct 02, 2015 7:26 am

Im not using those models. Im using live obs. Which of course doesn't account for future fluidity. So relax.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1310 Postby xironman » Fri Oct 02, 2015 7:31 am

caneman wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:All I know is we have some folks on here that gotta realize that nam,Cmc,navy,gfdl or horrible models....stick with the gfs and euro....euro has been most consistent got the last 3 weeks it's like it has a 30 game hitting streak going stick with that....stop saying u know what they say trend is ur friend
You do realize that a 72 hour track can be off a couple hundred miles off, right? And, it's very common to see models trend one way.and back another way? I'm basing my ideas on live visual obs. It's just an opinion so chill that's what this board is for.

I don't want to get into a model war, but to say the CMC is a horrible model for track is just not true. A few years back it came up the best in 72hrs. I doubt that Levi Cowan would put the ensembles up on his site if that was true http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... ps_00z.png
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1311 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Oct 02, 2015 9:57 am

to the nam lovers it slowly going towards the euro

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_12z/wrfloop.html
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#1312 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 9:59 am

Image

NAM
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1313 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Oct 02, 2015 10:01 am

the nam has been up and down like a crazy woman on drugs lol
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1314 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 02, 2015 10:29 am

stormlover2013 wrote:the nam has been up and down like a crazy woman on drugs lol


The NAM is just so bad in general for tropical systems.
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#1315 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 10:39 am

Image

12z GFS at 12 hours
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#1316 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 10:42 am

Image
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1317 Postby caneman » Fri Oct 02, 2015 10:49 am

Looks like good job Euro is in order. IMHO
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#1318 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 10:50 am

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1319 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Oct 02, 2015 10:51 am

EURO did very very well with this!!!!
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#1320 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 10:54 am

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