ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27371
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#1321 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:48 am

We must not lose track of the fact that Bermuda might have a dangerous hurricane situation with relatively little preparation time if it starts accelerating NNE. They are just as anxious as we are on the east coast...
0 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2984
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

#1322 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:07 pm

Even the 12Z JMA, which had some wild far SW tracks into SC 2 and 3 days ago, has him well out to sea today.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3055
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1323 Postby tailgater » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:08 pm

I like what the Nam is doing except the pressure will start rising a lot more than it forecast. It's going to get rip apart soon if it hasn't started already just looking at the Water vapor.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2984
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1324 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:59 pm

Based on the 12Z Euro through 42, I'll be shocked if it doesn't stay well east of the US.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ken Lucas
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 31
Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:29 pm

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1325 Postby Ken Lucas » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:02 pm

LarryWx wrote:Based on the 12Z Euro through 42, I'll be shocked if it doesn't stay well east of the US.


That's great news to hear.
0 likes   
Disclaimer:
My posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are of my opinion and as such should NOT be treated as an official forecast. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2984
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

#1326 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:33 pm

The 12Z Euro is well away from the US/Canada. It is a little closer to Bermuda than its prior run but still misses them to the west.

The 12Z UKMET is also out to sea like its prior run. It misses the US, Canada, and Bermuda.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1664
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1327 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Oct 02, 2015 5:14 pm

0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3288
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

#1328 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:09 pm

Euro this king for forecast of JOAQUIN alot was think could not happen it did :sun:
0 likes   

capepoint
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 409
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 7:13 pm
Location: Beaufort, NC

#1329 Postby capepoint » Fri Oct 02, 2015 6:28 pm

Some of these models are crap for hurricane track, thats true. But, they do a great job of forecasting fronts, troughs, ridges, etc. Thats why they are still in use, they are good at one particular thing. A wise man uses them all and watches trends and systems, not just one or two models looking at a particular storm track. You need to see why the models are moving the track a certain way. This is how we look for features that can make or break a model forecast, and gives us an idea if a models reasoning is sound, or if it is in lala land. In this storms case, both the gfs and euro had plausable solutions for a few days, then by watching features in other models, the gfs landfall solution became more and more improbable.
0 likes   
Ginger-(eye),Dennis,Diana,Kate,Gloria,Charley-(eye),Allison,Arthur,Bertha,Fran,Josephine,Bonnie,Earl,Dennis-(twice),Floyd, Isabel-(eye),Charley,Ophelia-(eyewall),Ernesto,Barry,Hanna,Irene-(eye),Arthur-(eye), and countless depressions, storms, and nor'easters.

User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1198
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1330 Postby sponger » Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:11 pm

Perfect swell window for Florida and the rest of the East Coast.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

smithtim
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 95
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:43 pm

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1331 Postby smithtim » Sat Oct 03, 2015 3:14 pm

sponger wrote:Perfect swell window for Florida and the rest of the East Coast.



Yeah...last week the surf models for FLa were showing about 5' size more than currently... I think a lot of them were counting on NW track for longer throwing swell right out in front towards FLa, but thankfully storm made that turn N/NE away

Still I've been enjoying and looks like tomorrow AM dawn patrol is going to be about good as it gets for FLa : ))
0 likes   
Disclaimer: while I am PhD who does research I'm rambling here so this post should be taken only for entertainment...use nhc.noaa.gov for official forecasts!

FLoridian living round here for a while: 2016 Matthew & 1998 Earl lived barrier island landfall. Also lived nearby/inland for: 2017 Irma & 2004 Frances,Jeanne & 1992 Andrew

smithtim
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 95
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:43 pm

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1332 Postby smithtim » Sat Oct 03, 2015 3:22 pm

caneman wrote:Looks like good job Euro is in order. IMHO


Yep!!!

Did anyone notice if did it - on last night's 00z runs - predict this reintenification??? ( 155mph currently WOW)

BTW
hwrf & gfdl fine mesh 00&06z really didn't...pretty much just showed holding around 100 knots then dies out as moving north; one of the runs showed minor intensify for very brief time......NHC forecasted 120ish both 11pm yesterday & 5am today) and I'm assuming adjusted this afternoon due to recon
0 likes   
Disclaimer: while I am PhD who does research I'm rambling here so this post should be taken only for entertainment...use nhc.noaa.gov for official forecasts!

FLoridian living round here for a while: 2016 Matthew & 1998 Earl lived barrier island landfall. Also lived nearby/inland for: 2017 Irma & 2004 Frances,Jeanne & 1992 Andrew

User avatar
AJC3
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 2826
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: West Melbourne, Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1333 Postby AJC3 » Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:06 pm

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 071842
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1842 UTC WED OCT 7 2015
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN (AL112015) 20151007 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
        151007  1800   151008  0600   151008  1800   151009  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    41.3N  43.2W   41.4N  38.8W   40.6N  34.2W   39.5N  29.8W
BAMD    41.3N  43.2W   42.1N  34.5W   42.1N  26.6W   41.2N  20.2W
BAMM    41.3N  43.2W   41.4N  36.4W   41.1N  30.2W   40.4N  25.0W
LBAR    41.3N  43.2W   42.3N  34.9W   43.0N  27.3W   43.9N  21.2W
SHIP        60KTS          48KTS          31KTS           0KTS
DSHP        60KTS          48KTS          31KTS           0KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
        151009  1800   151010  1800   151011  1800   151012  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    38.1N  25.7W   35.5N  19.9W   33.0N  16.6W   31.4N  12.8W
BAMD    39.6N  15.6W   35.6N   7.4W   33.5N   3.2E   33.5N  16.2E
BAMM    39.4N  20.8W   37.6N  13.3W   37.1N   5.9W   38.4N   2.1E
LBAR    44.8N  17.7W   44.6N  12.7W    0.0N   0.0W    0.0N   0.0W
SHIP         0KTS           0KTS           0KTS           0KTS
DSHP         0KTS           0KTS           0KTS           0KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  41.3N LONCUR =  43.2W DIRCUR =  75DEG SPDCUR =  32KT
LATM12 =  40.2N LONM12 =  51.5W DIRM12 =  74DEG SPDM12 =  29KT
LATM24 =  38.8N LONM24 =  58.0W
WNDCUR =   60KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   65KT
CENPRS =  977MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD =  350NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =  160NM RD34SE =  270NM RD34SW =  270NM RD34NW = 160NM
 
$$
NNNN


This is too funny not to share...I was just watching one of the Orlando TV stations give an update on Joaquin. For some reason, they insisted on showing the BAM suite/LBAR tracks. Anyone want to guess what the 72+ hour LBAR track looked like on their graphic? :Pick:
0 likes   


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests