CPAC: OHO - Post-Tropical

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#101 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 04, 2015 10:32 pm

It's not so much shear; it's that these monsoon systems simply take days to organize.
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Re: CPAC: OHO - Tropical Storm

#102 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 04, 2015 10:39 pm

WTPA32 PHFO 050240
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OHO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP072015
500 PM HST SUN OCT 04 2015

...STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OHO NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 154.7W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OHO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OHO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.7 WEST. OHO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. OHO IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY
INCREASING IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

WTPA42 PHFO 050241
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM OHO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP072015
500 PM HST SUN OCT 04 2015

VISIBLE ANIMATION SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...
LLCC...REMAINS EXPOSED BENEATH THIN CIRRUS JUST NORTHEAST OF DEEP
CONVECTION. FIX CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH AS OVERALL SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE LATE THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL 2.0...30 KT...FROM THE
THREE SATELLITE CENTERS...WHILE UW-CIMSS ADT REMAINS 2.7...39 KT.
HOWEVER...A SONDE DROPPED BY THE G-IV AIRCRAFT...CURRENTLY FLYING A
TRUNCATED HIGH-ALTITUDE MISSION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF OHO...SHOWED
A SPLASH WIND OF 195/39 KT ABOUT 40 NM EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC.
SPLASH PRESSURE WAS 999 MB. THIS DATA TRUMPS DVORAK ESTIMATES AND WE
WILL INCREASE THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF OHO TO 40 KT WITH THIS
ADVISORY. THIS DATA WAS ALSO USED TO INCREASE THE GALE RADII FOR
THIS SYSTEM.

OHO APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD NOW...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
OF 045/04 KT. OHO IS SEEING ABOUT 15 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH
EXPLAINS THE DISPLACEMENT OF ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST
OF THE LLCC AND THE WESTWARD TILT OF THE ROTATING CORE WITH HEIGHT.
STEERING INFLUENCES REMAIN WEAK AND INCLUDE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE LATTER
IS BEGINNING TO WIN OUT GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE SUSTAINED NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY PACKED...WITH
SUSTAINED NORTHEAST MOTION INDICATED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AT MEDIUM AND LONG
RANGES. THE FORWARD MOTION SPREAD HAS DECREASED...WITH MORE AND
MORE GUIDANCE MOVING OHO DOWN ITS TRACK FASTER BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT A BIT...FOR
INITIAL MOTION THROUGH 24 HOURS...THEN TO MATCH UP WITH THE
CONSENSUS TRACKS AFTERWARDS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS NOW A BIT LONGER
AS WELL...WITH FORWARD MOTION NUDGED HIGHER AT MEDIUM AND LONG
RANGES.

MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT OHO WILL REMAIN A
TROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN SPITE OF MOVING
ACROSS 28C TO 29C WATER THROUGH 48 HOURS. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS OHO BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE DEEP TROUGH NORTH OF
HAWAII DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGINS TO SCOOP THIS SYSTEM OUT OF THE
DEEP TROPICS ACROSS COOLER WATER. HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED UNTIL THEN AS SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE TODAY...THEN ACTUALLY
DECREASES SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY. AFTER ADJUSTING FOR THE INITIAL
INTENSITY INCREASE...THE INTENSITY TREND FOR THIS ADVISORY CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE...CAPPING INTENSITY AT 55 KT AT 48 AND 72
HOURS...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTERWARDS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
SHIPS BUT BELOW HWRF AND GFDL.

THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON HAS BEEN TASKED TO FLY THIS
SYSTEM IN SUPPORT OF CPHC OPERATIONS. INITIAL FLIGHTS INTO THE
SYSTEM ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...THE G-IV AIRCRAFT WILL FLY SYNOPTIC MISSIONS...WITH
ANOTHER HIGH-ALTITUDE FLIGHT PLANNED MONDAY MORNING...IN ORDER FOR
THE DATA TO BE UTILIZED BY AFTERNOON MODEL RUNS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 13.8N 154.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 14.2N 154.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 14.9N 153.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 15.7N 152.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 16.6N 151.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 19.7N 149.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 24.4N 146.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 30.1N 141.8W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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Re: CPAC: OHO - Tropical Storm

#103 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Mon Oct 05, 2015 2:36 am

Earlier recon mission.

Last 989mb vortex, the southern one, was from 6:18Z.

With satellite imagery from 7:00Z:

Image
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#104 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 05, 2015 7:45 am

WTPA42 PHFO 050907
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM OHO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP072015
1100 PM HST SUN OCT 04 2015

THE FIRST AIRCRAFT FROM THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON
FLEW INTO OHO EARLIER THIS EVENING. THEY FOUND LITTLE MOVEMENT
DURING THEIR TIME IN THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM...BUT FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS WERE NEAR 60 KT AND SFMR WINDS OF NEAR 44 KT. THESE STRONGEST
WINDS WERE PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE OF OHO. THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION OF OHO DID NOT SHOW A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WHILE THE AIRCRAFT WAS FLYING IN IT. THE ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF OHO WAS ABOUT 15 KT FROM THE EAST ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM SHIPS AND UW/CIMSS. AS A RESULT...
THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE
2.5/35 KT FROM PHFO AND 2.0/30 KT FROM SAB AND JTWC. THE LATEST
UW-CIMSS ADT WAS 2.2...32 KT. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CORE OF OHO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL BE INCREASED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT
DATA AND THE IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION.

AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE SIGNIFICANT MOTION OF
OHO...SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/01 KT. THE NOAA G-IV
AIRCRAFT SAMPLED PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM
EARLIER TODAY. THE CURRENT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS LIKELY DUE
TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. A DEEP TROUGH...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY DIGGING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ERODE THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE. AS
RESULT...OHO WILL LIKELY BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. HOWEVER...THERE IS
LARGE VARIATION IN THE ALONG TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH IS LIKELY DUE
TO VARIATIONS IN THE WAY THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLE THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE LATEST CONSENSUS TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
TO THE RIGHT SLIGHTLY...BUT THERE HAS BEEN A VERY SIGNIFICANT
ACCELERATION...MAINLY DUE TO THE GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN NUDGED TO THE
RIGHT AND ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD SLIGHTLY TO TRY TO MATCH SOME
OF THE FASTER FORWARD MOTION IN THE TVCN AND GFEX GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT OHO WILL REMAIN A
TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 4 DAYS...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOWING A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY DAY 5. OHO IS
CURRENTLY OVER A SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE /SST/ OF ABOUT 29C.
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN WARM SSTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF
OHO BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE DEEP TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
SYSTEM. SOME GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 2 TO
3 DAYS...SINCE THE EASTERLY SHEAR MAY DIMINISH. THE LATEST INTENSITY
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE...WHICH REMAINS NEAR THE
SHIPS FORECAST...BUT BELOW GUIDANCE FROM HWRF AND GFDL.

ADDITIONAL AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS INTO OHO WILL BE FLOWN ON MONDAY IF
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO POSE A POTENTIAL FUTURE THREAT TO THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT ALSO PLANS TO FLY
ANOTHER SYNOPTIC MISSION AROUND OHO ON MONDAY MORNING...IN ORDER FOR
THE DATA TO BE UTILIZED IN THE MONDAY AFTERNOON MODEL RUNS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 13.8N 154.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 14.3N 154.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 14.9N 153.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 15.7N 152.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 17.3N 150.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 22.5N 147.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 29.0N 143.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 35.5N 137.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
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#105 Postby Alyono » Mon Oct 05, 2015 8:01 am

looks like the MU got this one right the quickest by taking this well east of Hawaii. Somewhat redeemed itself after the Joaquin fiasco
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Re: CPAC: OHO - Tropical Storm

#106 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:44 am

Man, Hawaii has been ducking and dodging storms all season long, amazed they did't take a direct hit...
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Re: CPAC: OHO - Tropical Storm

#107 Postby supercane » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:22 am

670
WTPA32 PHFO 051448
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OHO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP072015
500 AM HST MON OCT 05 2015

...TROPICAL STORM OHO MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 154.6W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM S OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 540 MI...875 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

365
WTPA42 PHFO 051454
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM OHO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP072015
500 AM HST MON OCT 05 2015

A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS MADE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
WHERE THE CENTER OF OHO IS BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING. FORTUNATELY...AN AIRCRAFT FROM THE U.S. 53RD WEATHER
RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON FLEW INTO OHO LAST EVENING...SO WE HAVE SOME
RECENT TRACK...INTENSITY AND WIND RADII INFORMATION TO ASSIST US
WITH INITIALIZING THIS LATEST FORECAST. THE ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF OHO IS 12 TO 16 KT FROM THE EAST
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM UW/CIMSS AND SHIPS. THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 2.5/35
KT FROM PHFO AND SAB...AND 2.0/30 KT FROM JTWC. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS
ADT HAS INCREASED TO 2.7/39 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45
KT BASED ON THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF OHO...
AND THE AIRCRAFT DATA FROM SUNDAY EVENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/02 KT...SINCE OHO REMAINS
IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TO JUST
EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE WESTERN END OF THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
ERODE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS THIS RIDGE ERODES...OHO
WILL LIKELY BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
RATHER LARGE VARIATION IN THE ALONG TRACK GUIDANCE FROM DAYS 3
THROUGH 5. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE WAY THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLE THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALOFT. THE LATEST
CONSENSUS TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT SLIGHTLY...BUT
THERE HAS BEEN A VERY SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST...MAINLY DUE TO THE GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND
GFS. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE RIGHT AND
ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 24 HOURS TO TRY TO MATCH SOME OF
THE FASTER FORWARD MOTION IN THE MOST RECENT TVCN AND GFEX GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT OHO WILL REMAIN A
TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOWING A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY DAY 4. OHO IS
CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES /SST/ OF ABOUT 29C...AND
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER WARM SST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF OHO BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE
DEEP TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SYSTEM. SOME GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS SINCE THE
EASTERLY SHEAR MAY DIMINISH. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE...WHICH REMAINS NEAR THE SHIPS AND IVCN
FORECASTS...BUT WEAKER THAN THE HWRF AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

ADDITIONAL AIRCRAFT FROM THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON
ARE SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO OHO LATER THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT ALSO PLANS TO FLY
ANOTHER SYNOPTIC SAMPLING MISSION AROUND OHO THIS MORNING IN ORDER
FOR THE DATA TO BE UTILIZED IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON MODEL
INITIALIZATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 14.1N 154.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 14.6N 154.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 15.4N 153.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 16.6N 151.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 19.2N 149.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 26.5N 145.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 33.0N 140.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z 40.0N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


FORECASTER HOUSTON
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Re: CPAC: OHO - Tropical Storm

#108 Postby supercane » Mon Oct 05, 2015 4:30 pm

WTPA32 PHFO 052050
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OHO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP072015
1100 AM HST MON OCT 05 2015

...STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM OHO MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 153.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

WTPA42 PHFO 052106
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM OHO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP072015
1100 AM HST MON OCT 05 2015

THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC...APPEARS TO LIE JUST
WITHIN THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IN SATELLITE
ANIMATION...TAKING WRAPPED LOW CLOUD LINES INTO ACCOUNT.
AIRCRAFT FROM THE AIR FORCE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON
CONFIRMED THIS EARLIER...GREATLY INCREASING FIX CONFIDENCE THIS
MORNING. OHO CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE 10 TO 15 KT OF EASTERLY
SHEAR...ACCORDING TO UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES...SO THE SLIGHTLY
ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE AND THE WESTWARD TILT OF THE ROTATING CORE
WITH HEIGHT IS UNDERSTANDABLE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 2.5...35 KT...FROM JTWC TO 3.0...45
KT...FROM PHFO AND SAB. UW-CIMSS ADT WAS HIGHER AT 3.3...51 KT.
HOWEVER...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED EVEN STRONGER
WINDS...NEAR 55 KT...VIA SFMR ON ITS SECOND INBOUND LEG
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LLCC...ALONG WITH FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT OR
JUST ABOVE 60 KT GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE. THIS...ALONG
WITH THE REPORTED 984 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE...PROMPTS US TO ASSIGN 55
KT AS THE INITIAL OHO INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.

SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS OHO IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...WITH INITIAL
MOTION OF 045/06 KT. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM
THE EAST PACIFIC IS ERODING AND A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD
TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS BECOMING THE BIGGER
INFLUENCE. TRACK GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY CONTINUES THIS MOTION
TREND...TAKING OHO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE RIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR
INITIAL MOTION. THE FINAL TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS...BUT REMAINS JUST
TO THE LEFT OF...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

THERE IS STILL ENOUGH TIME...THROUGH 36 HOURS...FOR A BIT OF
STRENGTHENING BEFORE MOUNTING SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TAKE THEIR
TOLL. SHIPS AND ICON DEPICT RAPID WEAKENING THEREAFTER. BOTH DEPICT
PEAK INTENSITY BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 36 AND 48 HOURS. GLOBAL
MODELS ALSO KEEP OHO AS A TROPICAL STORM. HWRF DISAGREES...PEAKING
OHO AT 67 KT AT 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE A
BLEND OF THIS GUIDANCE...STRENGTHENING OHO TO 60 KT AT 24
HOURS...THEN MAINTAINING OHO AT THAT STRENGTH THROUGH 48
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY RATHER RAPID WEAKENING.

AIRCRAFT FROM THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON ARE SCHEDULED
TO FLY INTO OHO THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT WILL COMPLETE ITS SYNOPTIC SAMPLING MISSION
AROUND OHO THIS MORNING IN ORDER FOR THE DATA TO BE UTILIZED IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON MODEL INITIALIZATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 14.8N 153.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 15.4N 153.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 16.4N 151.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 18.2N 149.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 21.3N 147.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 28.3N 143.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 35.0N 138.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1800Z 41.9N 132.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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Re: CPAC: OHO - Tropical Storm

#109 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Oct 05, 2015 8:01 pm

Blown Away wrote:Man, Hawaii has been ducking and dodging storms all season long, amazed they did't take a direct hit...



As small as it is, I'm more surprised when it does take a hit.
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Re: CPAC: OHO - Tropical Storm

#110 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:18 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Man, Hawaii has been ducking and dodging storms all season long, amazed they did't take a direct hit...



As small as it is, I'm more surprised when it does take a hit.


There seems to be a death ridge over Hawaii this year.
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Re:

#111 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:40 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:It's not so much shear; it's that these monsoon systems simply take days to organize.


It is about the shear because the storm was organized as soon as it was classified and it went down hill. That shear has been king in the CPAC.
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Re: Re:

#112 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 05, 2015 10:00 pm

spiral wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:It's not so much shear; it's that these monsoon systems simply take days to organize.


Don't all systems take days to organize.


Yes, but these monsoonal C/WPAC systems take more time than say those high latitude ATL systems that originated from stalled cold fronts.
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#113 Postby supercane » Mon Oct 05, 2015 10:41 pm

WTPA32 PHFO 060245
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OHO ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP072015
500 PM HST MON OCT 05 2015

...TROPICAL STORM OHO CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 153.6W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

WTPA42 PHFO 060246
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM OHO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP072015
500 PM HST MON OCT 05 2015

ALTHOUGH STILL OBSCURED...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP...A 2358 UTC AMSUB
PASS...AND EXTRAPOLATION OF EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THE LLCC
REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF DEEPEST CONVECTION. SHEAR HAS
DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING AND IS NOW 10 KT OR LESS ACCORDING TO
UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES...SO THE LLCC IS LIKELY WITHIN 20 NM OF
THE APPARENT UPPER LEVEL ROTATION. THAT SAID...EVERY HOUR WITHOUT
FRESH AIRCRAFT DATA INCREASES FIX UNCERTAINTY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 3.0...45 KT...FROM
JTWC...TO 3.5...55 KT...FROM PHFO AND SAB. UW-CIMSS ADT WAS 3.4...53
KT. A 2009 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SWATH OF 50 KT WINDS 30 NM SE OF
THE LLCC. EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 55 KT SURFACE WINDS
IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA VIA SFMR. GIVEN THE INCREASED SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOW MATCHING EARLIER AIRCRAFT FINDINGS...WE
WILL MAINTAIN OHO AT A 55 KT INITIAL INTENSITY.

SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS OHO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...BUT
FORWARD MOTION MAY HAVE SLOWED SLIGHTLY SINCE THIS MORNING.
STEERING REMAINS RATHER WEAK...WITH A DIGGING TROUGH NORTH OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAVING SLIGHTLY MORE INFLUENCE OVER THIS
SYSTEM THAN AN ERODING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. FORWARD MOTION
MAY HAVE SLOWED AS DECREASING SHEAR ALLOWED THE UPPER AND LOWER
CIRCULATION CENTERS TO MORE STRONGLY RECOUPLE. WHATEVER CHANGES
OCCURRED SINCE THIS MORNING...TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY TIGHTLY
PACKED...DEPICTING CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FIVE DAYS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS
ONE...WITH THE FORECAST POSITION AT DAY FIVE NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT TO KEEP THE ENTIRE TRACK WITHIN THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

SHIPS DEPICTS SHEAR INCREASING DRAMATICALLY AFTER 24
HOURS...RISING TO NEAR 50 KT BY 96 HOURS AS OHO MOVES OVER
21C WATER AND COOLER. HOWEVER...WITHIN THIS SHRINKING STRENGTHENING
WINDOW...SHIPS GUIDANCE BUILDS A COMPELLING CASE FOR AN INTENSITY
INCREASE TO MARGINAL HURRICANE STRENGTH. HWRF AND GFDL ALSO DEPICT
STRENGTHENING...BUT TO UNLIKELY INTENSITIES UP TO 84 KT.
HOWEVER...IN A NOD TO THIS GUIDANCE TREND...WE NOW FORECAST OHO WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE AT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
BY WEAKENING AS MOUNTING SHEAR BEGINS TO TAKE ITS TOLL. OHO WILL
LIKELY END ITS LIFECYCLE AS A POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE OF THE US MAINLAND AT 96 AND 120
HOURS.

AIRCRAFT FROM THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON ARE SCHEDULED
TO FLY INTO OHO THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT HAS COMPLETED ITS SYNOPTIC SAMPLING MISSION
AROUND OHO...AND ITS DATA HAS BEEN UTILIZED IN THE NEXT MODEL
INITIALIZATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 15.0N 153.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 15.8N 152.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 17.3N 151.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 19.7N 149.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 22.9N 147.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 29.8N 142.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 36.6N 136.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0000Z 43.3N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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wxman57
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Re: CPAC: OHO - Hurricane

#114 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 06, 2015 9:55 am

I'm not seeing any good evidence of hurricane-force winds. Microwave imagery doesn't indicate any eye forming. ASCAT indicates 35-40 kts in the western half of the storm.
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Re: CPAC: OHO - Hurricane

#115 Postby supercane » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:00 am

WTPA32 PHFO 061446
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OHO ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP072015
500 AM HST TUE OCT 06 2015

...OHO BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 151.3W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

WTPA42 PHFO 061450
TCDCP2

HURRICANE OHO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP072015
500 AM HST TUE OCT 06 2015

AN 1131Z GPM PASS PROVIDED A TIMELY LOOK THROUGH THE THICK CANOPY
OF CLOUDS OVER OHO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER OR LLCC...WHICH HAD A DISTINCT EYEWALL FEATURE...WAS EVIDENT
IN THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL. THE 85 GHZ CHANNEL ALSO SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL
CENTER...WHICH APPEARED TO BE DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE
LLCC. THE LATEST ESTIMATE OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
AROUND 2 KT ACCORDING TO UW-CIMSS. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 3.5/55 KT AT JTWC...TO
4.0/65 KT AT PHFO AND SAB. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS
4.2/70 KT. WE HAVE INCREASED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 65 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY BASED ON THESE SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THIS MAKES OHO THE
SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE 2015 SEASON IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 075/11 KT...AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGS
NORTHWEST OF OHO. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH DOWN CLOSER TO
THE SYSTEM...IT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN NORTHEAST OF OHO. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND CONTINUES TO SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY. THE FORWARD MOTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH A SLIGHT NUDGING TO
THE LEFT...AND ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION...TO MORE CLOSELY FOLLOW THE
LATEST TVCN AND GFEX CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF OHO STARTING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH GRADUALLY INCREASES. UNTIL THAT OCCURS...OHO
WILL HAVE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING. BY 36 TO
48 HOURS...OHO WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES...AT
THE SAME TIME THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING. WE HAVE FORECAST
THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO OCCUR BY DAY 3...WITH OHO
DISSIPATING BY DAY 4.

THE FINAL AIRCRAFT MISSION BY THE U.S. 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE
SQUADRON THAT WAS SCHEDULED FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN CANCELED SINCE
OHO NO LONGER APPEARS TO BE A VIABLE THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. THOSE OF US WHO LIVE IN HAWAII GREATLY APPRECIATE THE
EFFORTS OF THOSE WHO FLEW THE EARLIER MISSIONS...AS WELL AS THE
FLIGHTS BY THE NOAA G-IV...IN THE VICINITY OF OHO WHILE WE WERE
DETERMINING THE POTENTIAL THREATS THIS SYSTEM MIGHT HAVE POSED TO
THE ALOHA STATE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 15.3N 151.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 16.7N 150.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 20.0N 147.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 25.1N 145.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 30.5N 142.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 43.0N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
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Re: CPAC: OHO - Hurricane

#116 Postby supercane » Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:04 pm

CPHC increased MSW from 65 to 75kt on latest (21Z) update, but predicts weakening hereafter.

WTPA32 PHFO 062044
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OHO ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP072015
1100 AM HST TUE OCT 06 2015

...OHO STAYING WELL SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 150.2W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES

WTPA42 PHFO 062108
TCDCP2

HURRICANE OHO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP072015
1100 AM HST TUE OCT 06 2015

A LARGE AREA OF COLD...DENSE OVERCAST COVERED THE CENTER OF OHO BUT
EXTRAPOLATION FROM A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES ALLOWED REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER POSITION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE 4.0/65 KT FROM SAB AND PGTW AND 4.5/77 KT FROM PHFO.
THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS 4.3/72 KT. I HAVE INCREASED THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THESE
SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE REASONING BEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST.
A DEEP NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TROUGH REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE
HURRICANE. THE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CARRY OHO TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH STEADILY
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT TRACK...WHICH HAS BEEN
COORDINATED WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...OPC......REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

UW-CIMSS SHOWED 8 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...VWS...FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WHILE SHIPS SHOWED 8 KT OF VWS FROM THE NORTHEAST. WITH
ONLY MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...VWS...AND THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE...SST...27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS...OHO IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT...THE SST WILL
DROP RAPIDLY WHILE VWS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE RAPIDLY IN MAGNITUDE. IN CONJUNCTION WITH OPC...I HAVE
FORECAST EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO OCCUR WITHIN 72 HOURS...WITH
OHO DISSIPATING WITHIN 96 HOURS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 16.6N 150.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 18.7N 148.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 23.5N 146.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 29.0N 144.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 35.0N 140.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 48.0N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
Last edited by supercane on Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#117 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:13 pm

NHC may be issuing advisories on this in a day or two as it will be crossing 140W
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#118 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:14 pm

" AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD..."

To EPAC?
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#119 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:32 pm

Watch the NHC downgrade it.
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#120 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Oct 06, 2015 9:02 pm

Alyono wrote:NHC may be issuing advisories on this in a day or two as it will be crossing 140W

How often does that happen? When was the last time?

Oho has such a exceptional track forecast, should pay a visit to British Columbia :eek: .
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