CPAC: OHO - Post-Tropical

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Yellow Evan
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Re: CPAC: SEVEN-C - Tropical Depression

#41 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 03, 2015 9:35 am

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                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  OHO         CP072015  10/03/15  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    35    38    41    45    49    57    65    69    70    70    72    72    67
V (KT) LAND       35    38    41    45    49    57    65    69    70    70    72    72    67
V (KT) LGE mod    35    37    40    42    44    48    54    61    66    71    75    73    65
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         7     4     7     7     2    10     7     8     9    12    18    25    23
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     1     3    -1    -4    -5    -4    -4    -5    -8    -1    -2     2     3
SHEAR DIR        223   224   183   170   152    81    83    93   117   166   199   196   195
SST (C)         29.1  29.0  29.0  29.0  28.9  28.9  28.8  28.7  28.6  28.4  28.3  28.1  27.9
POT. INT. (KT)   153   152   152   152   151   151   149   149   149   146   145   143   141
200 MB T (C)   -51.5 -51.6 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -50.8 -50.4 -50.6 -50.1 -50.4 -49.8 -50.0
TH_E DEV (C)       9     8     9     9     9     9     9     8     8     8     8     8     7
700-500 MB RH     63    60    62    61    60    60    58    59    60    61    59    55    51
MODEL VTX (KT)    15    17    18    19    19    21    24    24    26    27    28    29    27
850 MB ENV VOR    87    80    79    84    83    74    90   106   105   118   135   154   141
200 MB DIV        63    58    59    72    62    35    18     5    13    55    64    59    -3
700-850 TADV       1     1     1     1     1     0     0     2     0     1     0     0     0
LAND (KM)        567   520   472   445   422   400   336   271   258   291   287   272   283
LAT (DEG N)     13.9  14.3  14.7  14.9  15.1  15.4  16.1  16.5  16.7  17.0  17.4  18.2  19.3
LONG(DEG W)    154.5 154.7 154.9 155.4 155.8 156.5 156.8 156.1 154.8 153.7 153.2 152.6 152.1
STM SPEED (KT)     4     4     5     5     4     3     3     5     6     4     4     6     5
HEAT CONTENT      26    27    29    31    33    37    36    34    30    31    30    25    21

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/  5      CX,CY:   3/  4
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  518  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   8.3 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  96.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   2.   4.   8.  13.  18.  22.  24.  25.  26.  27.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   7.   7.   7.   7.   6.   4.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   3.   4.   7.  12.  14.  15.  16.  19.  21.  18.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   7.   9.  11.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -7.  -6.  -6.  -6.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   5.   4.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   6.  10.  14.  22.  30.  34.  35.  35.  37.  37.  32.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP072015 OHO        10/03/15  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  1.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   5.7 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 117.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.8
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   8.3 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  29.2 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  62.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.4
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.4
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  73.0 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/ -0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    61% is   4.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    38% is   4.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    26% is   4.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    25% is   5.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
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#42 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 03, 2015 9:51 am

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC SAT OCT 3 2015

A. Tropical depression Seven-C.

B. 03/1130Z.

C. 13.6°N.

D. 153.9°W.

E. Goes-15.

F. T2.0/2.0/d2.0/24 hrs.

G. Eir/ir.

H. Remarks: Convection wrap of .4 on log10 spiral yields a DT of 2.5. MET is not available. PT is 2.5. FT is 2.0 based on constraints.

I. Addl positions 03/0733Z 13.3°N 153.9°W amsu.

$$

Gibbs.
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Re: CPAC: OHO - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:12 am

TROPICAL STORM OHO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP072015
500 AM HST SAT OCT 03 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE...
WITH A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...WHILE COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE PERSISTED NEAR
THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELDED DATA-T VALUES OF
2.5/35 KT...BUT WITH CONSTRAINTS...THE FINAL-T VALUES WERE LIMITED
TO 2.0/30 KT. GIVEN THAT THE PATTERN-T ALSO SUPPORTS 2.5...AND THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KT...AND THE
THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM OHO.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 360/05 KT. THE STORM IS
EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP BUT RELATIVELY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE ALOFT TO THE EAST AND A LARGE
LONG WAVE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH. WHILE THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT-TERM...STEERING
PATTERNS WILL BE RATHER DYNAMIC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND
HAVE RESULTED IN A FORECAST TRACK BEST DESCRIBED AS RESEMBLING AN
S...ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING PAST POSITIONS. THIS ARISES AS THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH...THEN WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH A
FAIRLY SHARP TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE LATER FORECAST
PERIODS. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THE LOW ALOFT TO THE DISTANT NORTH
WILL LIFT QUICKLY NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW AN EAST PACIFIC MID-
LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...THEREBY IMPARTING
A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. A NEW AND VIGOROUS TROUGH ALOFT
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE BY
MONDAY...THEREBY WEAKENING ALREADY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...WITH THE
CYCLONE MEANDERING TO THE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. AS THE NEW TROUGH DIGS FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY... IT WILL STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY TOWARD THE EAST-
NORTHEAST.

THE COMPLEX FORECAST TRACK...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCN
CONSENSUS...HINGES ON THE EVOLUTION OF A VARIETY OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES...AND CONTAINS A GREATER THAN NORMAL AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY. ALSO ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OHO IN THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT...THE ECMWF. INTERACTION BETWEEN OHO AND THIS POTENTIALLY
SPURIOUS LOW IN THE LATER MODEL FORECASTS ADDS ANOTHER LAYER OF
UNCERTAINTY. WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS OHO AWAY FROM THE
ISLANDS...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS TOO CLOSELY ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK. ALSO...IT IS TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SPECIFIC
WIND...RAIN OR SURF IMPACTS FROM OHO IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

WITH THE DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BE SLOW-MOVING OVER VERY WARM
WATERS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT SHEAR...SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH CHANCE OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE...BUT ANTICIPATES THAT OHO WILL BECOME A
HURRICANE BY MONDAY...IN LINE WITH THE IVCN CONSENSUS. INCREASING
SHEAR AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK IN THE LATER PERIODS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
INTENSIFICATION SEEN IN THE EARLIER PERIODS.

THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON HAS BEEN TASKED TO FLY
THIS SYSTEM IN SUPPORT OF CPHC OPERATIONS...AND INITIAL FLIGHTS INTO
THE SYSTEM ARE PLANNED FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING. THE
G-IV AIRCRAFT IS ALSO HEADING BACK TO HAWAII TO FLY SYNOPTIC
MISSIONS...WITH HIGH-ALTITUDE FLIGHTS PLANNED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS...IN ORDER FOR THE DATA TO BE UTILIZED BY AFTERNOON MODEL
RUNS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 14.2N 154.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 14.6N 154.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 15.1N 155.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 15.6N 156.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 16.0N 155.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 16.4N 154.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 17.0N 153.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 19.0N 151.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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#44 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 03, 2015 11:14 am

ADT numbers shooting up.
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#45 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 03, 2015 11:21 am

Making the forecast even trickier is the fact that the 0Z CMC and 12Z EC shoot this NE immediately, having the narrow miss occur in 84 hours, unlike the MU and EC, which have this lollygagging
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#46 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 03, 2015 12:13 pm

models not picking up on this, but 8C is producing a fair amount of shear over this right now
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#47 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 03, 2015 12:45 pm

GFS continues to show a lot of interaction with the SE system later on.
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#48 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:03 pm

nothing is currently organized to the SE
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#49 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:22 pm

the model trend today is good

Hope, this is not a Neki, Ana, Kilo where the guidance keeps shifting to the west as that would bring this over the islands
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#50 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 03, 2015 2:25 pm

12z ECMWF a bit east. Ridge over Hawaii and one well to its east and a strong trough digging deep. Doubt we'll see west shifts here. Confident for now this will re-curved a little to the east of the CPHC track.

I see no shear from 8C however.
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#51 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 03, 2015 2:59 pm

The shear is from 08C.

Image

Really evident in the last few frames. The reason I say it's from 08C is because CIMSS is analyzing low shear; in-fact decreasing shear.

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#52 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 03, 2015 3:11 pm

shear should decrease within the next 24 hours, however

That said, I am having trouble seeing a well defined circulation. Almost looks like Kilo when it was milling about
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Re:

#53 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 03, 2015 3:18 pm

Alyono wrote:shear should decrease within the next 24 hours, however

That said, I am having trouble seeing a well defined circulation. Almost looks like Kilo when it was milling about


Mid Level shear + 08C?
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Re:

#54 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 03, 2015 3:39 pm

Alyono wrote:shear should decrease within the next 24 hours, however

That said, I am having trouble seeing a well defined circulation. Almost looks like Kilo when it was milling about


Yeah, it seems to lack a well-defined circulation center or any significant convection. Doesn't really qualify for TD status at present. ASCAT is on the way...
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#55 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Oct 03, 2015 3:54 pm

A low-level circulation can be seen, it's just separated from the deep convection.

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#56 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 03, 2015 4:00 pm

I could be wrong but if Oho remains weak and dis-organized it could remain on a NW track longer than expected according to the steering chart:

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#57 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 03, 2015 4:11 pm

WTPA42 PHFO 032051
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM OHO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP072015
1100 AM HST SAT OCT 03 2015

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
OF OHO. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS BUT THERE ARE STILL TOPS COLDER THAN -80C DISPLACED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OF OHO APPEARS TO BE
SEPARATING FROM A LARGE OUTER RAIN BAND THAT FORMED YESTERDAY
EVENING AND EXTENDED TOWARD THE SOUTH. IT IS ALSO A BIT ASYMMETRIC
WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE 13 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYZED BY
CIMSS AT 1800 UTC. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 2.5/35 KT
FROM PHFO AND JTWC...AND 2.0/30 KT FROM SAB. THE CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE
WAS 43 KT AT 1800 UTC. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS PACKAGE IS 350/06 KT. A LONG WAVE TROUGH
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST IS PROVIDING A
WEAK SOUTHERLY STEERING CURRENT. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD TONIGHT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE STEERING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST. A NEW SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON
MONDAY...RESULTING IN A SHARP TURN BACK TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.
THE MODELS VARY ON THE SHARPNESS AND TIMING OF THE TURN. DESPITE THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE S-SHAPED FORECAST TRACK...THE MODELS ARE QUITE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS PROJECTION AND THE PATHS OF THE TRUSTED GFS AND
ECMWF ARE QUITE CLOSE TO EACH OTHER WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING
IN OHO/S FORWARD SPEED. THUS...THE FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS
MAINLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS...WHICH
IS CONSERVATIVELY TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...THEN NUDGED
TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF CONSENSUS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

OHO IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATER WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...THE 13 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY IS A BIT STRONGER THAN EXPECTED AND THIS MAY
HAVE HALTED STRENGTHENING TEMPORARILY. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO EASE
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR OHO TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN. IN
FACT...THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES A 57 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF 25 KT INCREASE IN 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE BUT DOES BRING OHO TO 50 KT IN 24 HOURS AND A
MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 75 KT IN 96 HOURS. THIS PROJECTION IS CLOSE TO
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON HAS BEEN TASKED TO FLY THIS
SYSTEM IN SUPPORT OF CPHC OPERATIONS...AND INITIAL FLIGHTS INTO OHO
ARE PLANNED FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING. THE G-IV AIRCRAFT
IS ALSO HEADING TO HAWAII TO FLY SYNOPTIC MISSIONS...WITH HIGH-
ALTITUDE FLIGHTS PLANNED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS...IN ORDER
FOR THE DATA TO BE UTILIZED BY AFTERNOON MODEL RUNS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 14.6N 154.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 14.9N 154.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 15.4N 155.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 15.8N 155.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 16.1N 154.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 16.6N 153.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 17.5N 151.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 20.5N 150.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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wxman57
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Re:

#58 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 03, 2015 4:23 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:A low-level circulation can be seen, it's just separated from the deep convection.

http://i.imgur.com/FsVqGSG.png


That little swirl isn't the center. It's a tiny vortex that might be rotating (southward) around a broad low pressure area. CPHC has the center 140 miles NNE of that swirl. I don't see any well-defined center there, either. Definitely would not qualify for an upgrade to a TD at this point.
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Re: Re:

#59 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 03, 2015 4:27 pm

wxman57 wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:A low-level circulation can be seen, it's just separated from the deep convection.

http://i.imgur.com/FsVqGSG.png


That little swirl isn't the center. It's a tiny vortex that might be rotating around a broad low pressure area. CPHC has the center 140 miles NNE of that swirl. I don't see any well-defined center there, either. Definitely would not qualify for an upgrade to a TD at this point.


Could it have relocated under that large convection mass?
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#60 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 03, 2015 6:26 pm

Did they downgrade it? It's not on the NRL and FNMOC websites anymore.
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