CPAC: OHO - Post-Tropical

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Kingarabian
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#61 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 03, 2015 6:28 pm

TXPN24 KNES 032037
TCSCNP
CCA

A. 07C (OHO)

B. 03/1730Z

C. 13.3N

D. 154.7W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/2.0/W0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI/AMSU/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...1730Z SSMIS SHOWED THE CENTER TO BE OVER A DEGREE FARTHER
SOUTH FROM OUR PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. THIS APPEARS TO BE
CONFIRMED BY ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY THROUGH 2000Z. IT IS LESS CLEAR
AS TO WHETHER THIS REPRESENTS A LONE VORTICE WITHIN A LARGER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. WITH THE NEW CENTER LOCATION BANDING MEASURES 3/10 RESULTING
IN A DT OF 1.5. THE MET AND PT ARE ALSO 1.5. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

03/1257Z 14.0N 154.4W SSMI
03/1516Z 14.2N 154.4W AMSU
03/1730Z 13.3N 154.7W SSMIS


...TURK
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#62 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 03, 2015 6:38 pm

just like kilo...
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Re: CPAC: OHO - Tropical Storm

#63 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 03, 2015 6:44 pm

That swirl wasn't the center. It's gone now. No well-defined LLC. ASCAT pass as 20Z did indicate one 35kt barb 300 miles from that swirl to the southeast. That wouldn't qualify it as a TS, though.
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Re: CPAC: OHO - Tropical Storm

#64 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 03, 2015 6:53 pm

wxman57 wrote:That swirl wasn't the center. It's gone now. No well-defined LLC. ASCAT pass as 20Z did indicate one 35kt barb 300 miles from that swirl to the southeast. That wouldn't qualify it as a TS, though.


the swirl is still there near 13N, 154.5W
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Re: CPAC: OHO - Tropical Storm

#65 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 03, 2015 6:53 pm

wxman57 wrote:That swirl wasn't the center. It's gone now. No well-defined LLC. ASCAT pass as 20Z did indicate one 35kt barb 300 miles from that swirl to the southeast. That wouldn't qualify it as a TS, though.


Why wouldn't it?
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Re: CPAC: OHO - Tropical Storm

#66 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 03, 2015 7:01 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
wxman57 wrote:That swirl wasn't the center. It's gone now. No well-defined LLC. ASCAT pass as 20Z did indicate one 35kt barb 300 miles from that swirl to the southeast. That wouldn't qualify it as a TS, though.


Why wouldn't it?


that wind may be associated with the eastern disturbance and not Oho.

My suspicion is that the two will combine, instead of being the absurd 2 TC solution of the MU
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Re: CPAC: OHO - Tropical Storm

#67 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 03, 2015 7:01 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
wxman57 wrote:That swirl wasn't the center. It's gone now. No well-defined LLC. ASCAT pass as 20Z did indicate one 35kt barb 300 miles from that swirl to the southeast. That wouldn't qualify it as a TS, though.


Why wouldn't it?


No center.
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#68 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 03, 2015 7:15 pm

ASCAT showed a center on the ASCAT all the way at 12N and 153.5W
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#69 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 03, 2015 7:19 pm

given the terrible organization, maybe we shouldn't discount the JMA scenario of a weak system making it to Hawaii
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Re:

#70 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 03, 2015 7:28 pm

Alyono wrote:given the terrible organization, maybe we shouldn't discount the JMA scenario of a weak system making it to Hawaii


Or drift west like Kilo and then develop.
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Re: Re:

#71 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 03, 2015 7:34 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Alyono wrote:given the terrible organization, maybe we shouldn't discount the JMA scenario of a weak system making it to Hawaii


Or drift west like Kilo and then develop.


that may not be good in this case
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Re: Re:

#72 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 03, 2015 7:40 pm

Alyono wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Alyono wrote:given the terrible organization, maybe we shouldn't discount the JMA scenario of a weak system making it to Hawaii


Or drift west like Kilo and then develop.


that may not be good in this case


Is it that ghost mid level shear solely affecting the system or is it just 08C?
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#73 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 03, 2015 7:41 pm

I think its 8C. Doesn't look like mid level shear

also, the low level winds are quite unfavorable with no convergence being focused into the center. The low level winds are nothing like those with Joaquin when it was developing
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Re:

#74 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 03, 2015 7:52 pm

Alyono wrote:I think its 8C. Doesn't look like mid level shear

also, the low level winds are quite unfavorable with no convergence being focused into the center. The low level winds are nothing like those with Joaquin when it was developing


But models are not latching on and are insisting on development. Maybe they'll latch on later like how they did with Kilo.
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#75 Postby supercane » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:11 pm

WTPA42 PHFO 040255
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM OHO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP072015
500 PM HST SAT OCT 03 2015

VERTICAL SHEAR HAS APPARENTLY HAD A BIGGER IMPACT ON OHO THAN
EXPECTED. RIGHT AROUND THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUANCE TIME...2100
UTC...THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REVEALED ITSELF TO BE
SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED POSITION. THE WORKING BEST
TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BY ANALYZING OLDER DATA AS FAR BACK AS
YESTERDAY TO TRY AND IDENTIFY THE MOTION OF THE ACTUAL CENTER.

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OHO HAS DETERIORATED THROUGH THE DAY
WITH WARMER CLOUD TOPS AND A REDUCTION IN THE OUTFLOW. FOR NOW...A
LARGE RAINBAND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON FLOW
HAS BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE AREA AND MAY BE HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF OHO. THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM THE FIX
AGENCIES REFLECT THE NEW POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH
INTENSITIES OF 2.5/35 KT FROM PHFO AND JTWC...AND 2.0/30 KT FROM
SAB. THE CIMSS ADT ANALYSIS OF 55 KT AT 0000 UTC IS NOT
REPRESENTATIVE BECAUSE THE CENTER POSITION USED DOES NOT REFLECT THE
RELOCATED COORDINATES.

AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SAMPLED THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF OHO
AND PICKED UP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 35 KT ALMOST 300 NM SOUTHEAST
OF THE CENTER. THIS STRONG GRADIENT FLOW SUGGESTS THAT OHO IS MORE
LIKE A MONSOONAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SEEN MORE OFTEN IN THE WESTERN
NORTH PACIFIC. IT IS EXPECTED THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP
AND CONCENTRATE NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...AND OHO
SHOULD TAKE ON THE APPEARANCE OF A MORE CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS EXPECTATION IS DUE TO THE DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND FROM 13 KT
AT 1800 UTC TO 10 KT IN THE 0000 UTC CIMSS ANALYSIS. WITH WEAKENING
SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN A MOIST ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION TO RESUME AND
OHO TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
BUT IS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE
IS A HIGHER THAN USUAL DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY HERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF OHO IS 085/06 KT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
PROVIDING THE SHORT TERM STEERING CURRENT. IF OHO REDEVELOPS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION...A RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. A NEW SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH NORTH OF OHO ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A SHARP TURN
BACK TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST. THE RELOCATED CENTER AND THE POOR
CURRENT CONDITION OF OHO HAS GREATLY INCREASED THE AMOUNT
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED IN THE TRACK FORECAST. CURRENT OBJECTIVE AIDS
DO NOT YET REFLECT THE EFFECTS OF THE CHANGE IN POSITION ON THE
OVERALL FORECAST. THESE CHANGES SHOULD MANIFEST ITSELF IN THE NEXT
MODEL CYCLE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE GFS WHICH WE HAVE
BEEN INFORMED DID NOT PROPERLY INITIALIZE POSITIONS OF ALL TROPICAL
CYCLONES FOR THE 0000 UTC RUN. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS MAINTAINED
THE S-SHAPED TRACK OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT HAS BEEN SHIFTED
EAST A BIT TO REFLECT A LATER TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IF DEEP
CONVECTION FAILS TO REDEVELOP...THE TRACK SHOULD APPEAR TO BE MORE
LIKE THE BAMS FORECAST WITH OHO CONTINUING TOWARD THE EAST...THEN
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS.

THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON HAS BEEN TASKED TO FLY THIS
SYSTEM IN SUPPORT OF CPHC OPERATIONS. INITIAL FLIGHTS INTO THE
SYSTEM ARE PLANNED FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING. THE G-IV
AIRCRAFT IS ALSO HEADING TO HAWAII TO FLY SYNOPTIC MISSIONS...WITH
HIGH-ALTITUDE FLIGHTS PLANNED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS...IN
ORDER FOR THE DATA TO BE UTILIZED BY AFTERNOON MODEL RUNS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 12.9N 154.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 13.6N 154.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 13.8N 154.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 14.2N 155.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 14.5N 154.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 15.0N 153.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 16.5N 151.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 20.0N 149.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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Re: Re:

#76 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:42 pm

Alyono wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Alyono wrote:given the terrible organization, maybe we shouldn't discount the JMA scenario of a weak system making it to Hawaii


Or drift west like Kilo and then develop.


that may not be good in this case


There appears to be a ridge over Hawaii that if this misses the trough, should at least keep it west.
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#77 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:44 pm

I think the low level steering is currently east to west. This is good news as it should hopefully take Oho away from Hawaii before the trough picks it up.
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#78 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 04, 2015 1:13 am

TXPN24 KNES 040542
TCSCNP

A. 07C (OHO)

B. 04/0530Z

C. 13.1N

D. 155.0W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.0/1.5/W1.0/18HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.0. MET OF LESS THAN
T1.0 AND PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

Per the latest storm trends and model trends, I would cancel recon. Heavy model consensus of the storm safely clearing the islands. Doesn't appear to be a threat at this time, thankfully.

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#79 Postby Alyono » Sun Oct 04, 2015 5:31 am

definitely looking better this morning

I'd fly a couple of synoptic surveillance missions, however, just to make sure
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Re: CPAC: OHO - Tropical Storm

#80 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 04, 2015 7:58 am

WTPA42 PHFO 040859
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM OHO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP072015
1100 PM HST SAT OCT 03 2015

IT APPEARS THAT THE INTERPLAY BETWEEN OHO AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE IS PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT
ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND VIGOROUS
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...BUT CURVED
BANDS OF CONVECTION HAVE RE-DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE CENTER IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO AND PGTW INDICATED 2.5/35 KT WHILE SAB
OBTAINED 1.5/25 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN 35 KT...PARTIALLY DUE TO THE RENEWED CONVECTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 050/04 KT.
OHO IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW...SOUTH OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM A HIGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. NORTH OF THIS RIDGE AND NORTH OF HAWAII...A PERSISTENT
LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT FEATURES A DISTANT CLOSED LOW THAT IS IN THE
PROCESS OF WEAKENING. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR OHO TO MOVE SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE SOUTH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON
SUNDAY...TEMPORARILY STEERED BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY RE-GAINS ORGANIZATION AND VERTICAL DEPTH. ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...A VIGOROUS NEW SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH...ERODING THE RIDGE AND WEAKENING
STEERING CURRENTS TO NEAR ZERO. AS THE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER
SOUTH...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
FLOW WILL TAKE OHO MORE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON DAYS 4 AND
5. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS...BUT INDICATES A
MORE RAPID NORTHEASTERLY MOTION IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS. THE
DAY 5 POSITION IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE NORTHEAST THAN THE PREVIOUS...
TO BE CLOSER TO THE TVCN AND GFEX CONSENSUS. THIS GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO THE INPUT FROM THE LATEST ECMWF RUN...WHICH
HAS OHO ABOUT 900 MILES FARTHER NORTHEAST ON DAY 5 THAN THE GFS.

LIGHT SHEAR...SUFFICIENTLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT ARE PROJECTED ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK. THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR STEADY
INTENSIFICATION...WITH OHO STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MINIMAL
HURRICANE. AS THE SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO THE DIGGING TROUGH ALOFT IN
THE LATER PERIODS...A WEAKENING TREND IS INTRODUCED. AN EARLIER
ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDED WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THIS FORECAST MAINTAINS FAIRLY LARGE
RADII IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AS OHO BECOMES INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IS ABLE TO SEPARATE
FROM THE PERSISTENT AND STRONG EL NINO-RELATED LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES
NEAR THE EQUATOR...THE ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO
CONTRACT.

THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON HAS BEEN TASKED TO FLY THIS
SYSTEM IN SUPPORT OF CPHC OPERATIONS. INITIAL FLIGHTS INTO THE
SYSTEM ARE PLANNED FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING. THE G-IV
AIRCRAFT IS ALSO HEADING TO HAWAII TO FLY SYNOPTIC MISSIONS...WITH
HIGH-ALTITUDE FLIGHTS PLANNED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS...IN
ORDER FOR THE DATA TO BE UTILIZED BY AFTERNOON MODEL RUNS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 13.3N 154.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 13.7N 154.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 14.2N 154.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 14.7N 154.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 15.0N 153.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 16.0N 151.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 18.6N 150.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 24.0N 147.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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