CPAC: EIGHT-C - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7891
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

CPAC: EIGHT-C - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 01, 2015 8:52 pm

GFS really likes this one.

Image

Possible Cat.4/5.
0 likes   
Image

User avatar
Darvince
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 177
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:25 pm
Location: Phoenix AZ

#2 Postby Darvince » Thu Oct 01, 2015 9:38 pm

CPAC hype train go ヽ༼ຈل͜ຈ༽ノ
0 likes   
Storm2k forum is of Polandball.

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3237
Age: 26
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

#3 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:22 pm

Wow, the GFS really does go ham with this as it nears the dateline.
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
Extratropical94
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2737
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany

#4 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:10 am

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure continue to develop around 1100 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. Although these thunderstorms remain poorly organized, upper level winds are projected to become less hostile Friday night through Saturday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent.
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' North, 9° 9' 20'' East, Station at W-Underground: Link
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

User avatar
Extratropical94
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2737
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany

#5 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Oct 02, 2015 7:09 am

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure continue to develop around 1100 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. Environmental conditions will remain conducive for tropical cyclone development over the next couple of days as it remains nearly stationary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 60 percent.
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' North, 9° 9' 20'' East, Station at W-Underground: Link
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

User avatar
Extratropical94
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2737
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany

#6 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:06 pm

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure about 1100 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii remained nearly stationary this morning. Environmental conditions will remain conducive for tropical cyclone development over the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 80 percent.
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' North, 9° 9' 20'' East, Station at W-Underground: Link
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10214
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:25 am

Not likely to be strong since the GFS is showing high shear, but

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located around 1000 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii have become better organized today. Environmental conditions support tropical cyclone development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early Saturday morning or through the day Saturday while the low remains nearly stationary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 90 percent.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10214
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 03, 2015 9:52 am

TXPN42 PHFO 031223
TCSNP2

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC SAT OCT 3 2015

A. Tropical disturbance 98C.

B. 03/1130Z.

C. 12.0°N.

D. 171.2°W.

E. Goes-15.

F. T2.0/2.0/d2.0/24 hrs.

G. Eir/ir.

H. Remarks: Shear pattern. LLCC is less than 3/4 deg from dg shade yielding a DT of 2.5. MET is not available. PT is 2.0. FT is 2.0 based on constraints.

I. Addl positions none.

$$

Gibbs.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extratropical94
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2737
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany

#9 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Oct 03, 2015 9:59 am

Image
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' North, 9° 9' 20'' East, Station at W-Underground: Link
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

User avatar
Extratropical94
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2737
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany

#10 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Oct 03, 2015 2:01 pm

08C EIGHT 151003 1800 11.8N 171.6W CPAC 30 1002
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' North, 9° 9' 20'' East, Station at W-Underground: Link
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2845
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

Re: CPAC: EIGHT-C - Tropical Depression

#11 Postby supercane » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:08 pm

966
WTPA43 PHFO 032100
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP082015
1100 AM HST SAT OCT 03 2015

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08C IS A STRONGLY SHEARED SYSTEM. AN EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC...DEFINED BY SPIRALING LOW
CLOUD LINES CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS A 350NM DIAMETER AREA OF VERY COLD HIGH CLOUDS HAS MOVED OFF
FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC WITH ONLY ISOLATED CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS POPPING UP NORTH OF THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT 1730 UTC WERE 2.0/30 KT FROM PHFO...SAB...AND JTWC. ADT
FROM UW-CIMSS ALSO SHOWED 30 KT. I WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY
AT 30 KT.

WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER LOCATION BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC I HAVE RE-BESTED THE 1200 UTC POSITION A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH...BUT EVEN AFTER THE ADJUSTMENT THE SHORT-TERM MOTION HAS
SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHWEST. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE RELIABLE
TRACK MODELS SHOW EIGHT-C TRACKING WEST SOUTHWEST...THEN
WEST...ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
BEYOND THAT...THE MODELS SHOW EIGHT-C TRACKING TOWARD THE WEST
NORTHWEST WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND A NORTH-SOUTH TROUGH DEEPENS SOUTH OF TROPICAL
STORM CHOI-WAN. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS FROM THE TRUSTED
MODELS.

UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AT 1800 UTC WAS 21 KT FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WHILE SHIPS SHOWED 20 KT FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THERE IS STRONG SHEAR FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER EIGHT-C DUE TO A LOW ALOFT ABOUT 900NM NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION. EIGHT-C IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING OVER 29-30 DEGREE
CELSIUS WATER...BUT STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 36
HOURS AS THE LOW ALOFT DIGS SOUTHWEST. WITH THIS SHEAR CONTINUING...
EIGHT-C IS UNLIKELY TO INTENSIFY. I HAVE KEPT THE INTENSITY AT
30KT. BEYOND 36 HOURS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO RELAX AS
THE LOW ALOFT WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHWEST. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
MAY OCCUR IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES THAT LONG.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 11.5N 171.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 11.5N 172.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 11.5N 173.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 11.7N 174.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 12.2N 175.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 13.3N 179.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 14.5N 175.5E 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 15.5N 170.0E 45 KT 50 MPH

FORECASTER DONALDSON

---

957
WTPA43 PHFO 040243
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP082015
500 PM HST SAT OCT 03 2015

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-C REMAINS A STRONGLY SHEARED SYSTEM. THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC...DEFINED BY SPIRALING LOW
CLOUD LINES...REMAINS COMPLETELY EXPOSED. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS THE
COLD...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED IN AREA AND MOVED OFF FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC WITH ONLY ISOLATED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS POPPING
UP NORTH OF THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT
2330 UTC WERE 2.0/30 KT FROM PHFO AND JTWC...WHILE SAB JUDGED THE
SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. ADT FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWED 30 KT. THERE
HAVE BEEN NO RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE CENTER OF EIGHT-C
BUT AN ASCAT PASS DID SHOW AN AREA OF 30 KT WINDS MORE THAN 400NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. EIGHT-C LOOKS LIKE A MONSOON LOW RATHER
THAN A CLASSIC TROPICAL CYCLONE.

SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY...EIGHT-C MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...THEN TURNED TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH STILL SUGGESTS THAT
EIGHT-C SHOULD MOVE IN A GENERALLY WEST DIRECTION. I WILL ASSUME
THE DEPRESSION IS MAKING A COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP AND WILL RESUME
A WESTWARD TRACK LATER THIS EVENING. THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE
SHOWS EIGHT-C TRACKING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND A
NORTH-SOUTH TROUGH DEEPENS SOUTH OF TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN. ONCE
EIGHT-C COMPLETES ITS LOOP...THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS
FROM THE TRUSTED MODELS.

UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AT 0000 UTC WAS A VERY HIGH 28 KT FROM
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHILE SHIPS SHOWED 23 KT FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS SHEAR IS DUE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN
ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE DEPRESSION.
EIGHT-C IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING OVER 29-30 DEGREE CELSIUS
WATER...BUT THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE STRONG FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. WITH THE STRONG SHEAR
CONTINUING...EIGHT-C IS UNLIKELY TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH AT LEAST 36
HOURS AND COULD EVEN DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE. I HAVE KEPT THE INTENSITY AT
30KT...BUT THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 11.2N 171.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 11.2N 172.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 11.3N 173.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 11.5N 175.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 12.0N 176.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 13.5N 178.5E 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 14.5N 173.0E 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 15.0N 167.0E 30 KT 35 MPH

FORECASTER DONALDSON
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2845
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#12 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 04, 2015 7:59 am

WTPA43 PHFO 040854
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP082015
1100 PM HST SAT OCT 03 2015

LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE AND MORE RECENT 11-3.9 MICRON FOG PRODUCT
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO CLEARLY SHOW THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-C. ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT NEAR THE LLCC FOR OVER 12 HOURS
NOW...WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE MORE THAN 150 MILES FROM THE CENTER AT PRESENT.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES FROM PHFO AND JTWC WERE UNABLE
TO DETERMINE A DATA-T DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION...WHILE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAINED AT 2.0/30 KT DUE TO CONSTRAINTS. SAB
HAS CEASED PROVIDING FIXES...AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS 25 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED TO 25 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOES NOT DEVELOP AND
PERSIST NEAR THE LLCC SOON...EIGHT-C WILL LIKELY BE DESIGNATED AS A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY MORNING.

EIGHT-C HAS MOVED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 KT DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND RECENTLY SEEMS TO BE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS CONTINUING TO
MAKE A SLOW CYCLONIC LOOP. ALL OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE INSISTS THAT
EIGHT-C WILL COMMENCE A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION ON SUNDAY...
WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS A
STRONG LOWER/MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH TIME...
WHICH SHOULD KEEP EIGHT-C ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH
120 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.

STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
DEPRESSION...WITH SHEAR MAGNITUDE ESTIMATED AT 23 KT BY SHIPS AND
28 KT BY UW-CIMSS. THIS SHEAR IS CAUSED BY THE FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF
THE DEPRESSION. SHIPS FORECASTS THE SHEAR TO REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG
FOR ANOTHER 18 TO 24 HOURS...THEN DECREASE THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH
THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN AFTER
24 HOURS...THE SHIPS...GFS/ECMWF AND HWRF SHOW LITTLE INTENSITY
CHANGE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WHILE THE SHIPS DEPICTS SOME
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS AND HWRF KEEP
THREE-C AS A WEAK LOW...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CARRY A 25 KT
REMNANT LOW THROUGH 120 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 10.6N 171.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 10.8N 172.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0600Z 11.1N 173.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1800Z 11.6N 175.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0600Z 12.3N 177.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z 13.7N 177.6E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z 15.0N 172.0E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z 16.0N 167.0E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10214
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 04, 2015 9:56 am

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eight-C Advisory Number 005
Issued at 500 AM HST SUN OCT 04 2015
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location: 10.9N 171.7W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 1160 MI...1870 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 30 MPH...45 KM/H
Present movement: NW or 325 degrees AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2845
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#14 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 04, 2015 1:05 pm

WTPA43 PHFO 041458
TCDCP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP082015
500 AM HST SUN OCT 04 2015

OVERNIGHT 11-3.9 MICRON FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ OF EIGHT-C AS A
LOW CLOUD SWIRL...WITH THE LLCC BECOMING LESS CLEARLY DEFINED DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT NEAR
THE LLCC FOR OVER 18 HOURS NOW...WITH CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED MORE THAN 150 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER
AT PRESENT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES FROM PHFO AND JTWC
WERE UNABLE TO DETERMINE A DATA-T DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE LLCC. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO...JTWC AND UW-CIMSS
ADT RANGE FROM 1.5/25 KT TO 2.0/30 KT. EIGHT-C IS DESIGNATED AS A 25
KT POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

EIGHT-C HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT...AND APPEARS TO
HAVE RECENTLY COMMENCED A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. ALL OF
THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE INSISTS THAT THE REMNANT LOW OF EIGHT-C WILL
COMMENCE A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION TODAY...WITH INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AS A STRONG LOWER/MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO
SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH TIME...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REMNANT LOW
ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
TO THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN IS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CLOSER TO THE TVCN AT 96
AND 120 HOURS.

STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT
EIGHT-C...WITH SHEAR MAGNITUDE ESTIMATED AT 22 KT BY SHIPS AND 30 KT
BY UW-CIMSS. THIS SHEAR IS CAUSED BY THE FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
REMNANT LOW. SHIPS FORECASTS THE SHEAR TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C WITH LOW WIND SHEAR EXPECTED...NONE OF THE
INTENSITY MODELS SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE GFS DOES MAINTAIN THE REMNANT LOW AS AN IDENTIFIABLE
FEATURE THROUGH 120 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON EIGHT-C UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOHSFNP
AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 10.9N 171.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 05/0000Z 11.0N 172.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/1200Z 11.4N 174.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0000Z 12.0N 176.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1200Z 12.8N 178.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1200Z 14.0N 176.0E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z 15.0N 170.5E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1200Z 15.0N 166.0E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON

000
ACPN50 PHFO 041743
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN OCT 4 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII...IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM OHO...LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES
SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER TCPCP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPA32 PHFO.

2. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-C HAS WEAKENED AND WAS DOWNGRADED TO A
REMNANT LOW. THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 1170 WEST
SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII AND MOVING SLOWLY WEST. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST OVER 100 MILES NORTH WERE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW ITSELF. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR REDEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.


3. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH.

* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...40 PERCENT.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3237
Age: 26
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

#15 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:45 pm

JMA has classified this as a Tropical Depression.
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
Extratropical94
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2737
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany

#16 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Oct 07, 2015 1:06 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 14N 178E WNW 10 KT
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' North, 9° 9' 20'' East, Station at W-Underground: Link
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13100
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: CPAC: EIGHT-C - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 07, 2015 7:39 am

Not much strengthening is forecast in the WPAC.

THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...THE
REMNANTS OF 08C...LOCATED NORTHEAST OF MAJURO. MODELS INDICATE
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE MARIANAS.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3237
Age: 26
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

#18 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 07, 2015 11:55 am

In contrast to model runs from about a week ago, the latest guidance doesn't do much at all with 08C for at least a week. After that, it could find some more favorable conditions as it nears The Philippines, which is when some models redevelop it.
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13100
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: CPAC: EIGHT-C - Tropical Depression

#19 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 07, 2015 5:13 pm

Indeed...12Z EURO brings this down to 959 mb as it slowly recurves into the Ryukyu Islands. Not again...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13100
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: CPAC: EIGHT-C - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 07, 2015 8:01 pm

08C EIGHT 151008 0000 15.4N 172.2E CPAC 15 1010
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests