CPAC: EIGHT-C - Post-Tropical

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supercane
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Re: CPAC: EIGHT-C - Tropical Depression

#21 Postby supercane » Wed Oct 07, 2015 10:32 pm

Given position west of the dateline, will this be moved to the West Pac forum?

Also, JMA is carrying this as a non-warning tropical depression.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 19N 170E NW 10 KT.
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Re: CPAC: EIGHT-C - Tropical Depression

#22 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 08, 2015 3:47 am

LOW

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 08C) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.4N 172.2E, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
A 080258Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SHALLOW SYSTEM WITH A SMALL
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE
AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. NUMERIC MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Re: CPAC: EIGHT-C - Tropical Depression

#23 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 08, 2015 3:48 am

TXPQ25 KNES 080354
TCSWNP

A. 08C (NONAME)

B. 08/0232Z

C. 16.7N

D. 171.3E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THE 0258Z AMSU PASS REVEALS THAT THE LOOSELY DEFINED
AND ELONGATED LLCC IS REMOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE ACTIVE
CONVECTION. CENTER GT 1.25 DEG FROM CONVECTION YIELDS A DT OF 0. MET
AND PT ARE LT 1.0. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. THIS WILL BE
THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Re: CPAC: EIGHT-C - Tropical Depression

#24 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 08, 2015 4:47 am

NWS

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NEAR 25N158E THROUGH A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...THE REMNANTS OF TD08C...TO BEYOND THE DATE
LINE AT 9N. CONVERGING WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE DISTURBANCE AND
TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MARSHALLS THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK RIDGING TO THE SOUTH OF
CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE IS KEEPING SHOWERS IN THE ISOLATED
CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO HAVE THIS EFFECT
THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGING IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
DISTURBANCE DRIFTS WESTWARD AND THE MONSOON TROUGH REDEVELOPS TO
THE NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS CHUUK
STATE EARLY FRIDAY AND SPREAD INTO POHNPEI FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
KOSRAE BY THE EVENING. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH SHOWER COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO ISOLATED OVER THE WEEKEND. MAJURO WILL
BEGIN TO SEE DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Re: CPAC: EIGHT-C - Tropical Depression

#25 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 08, 2015 4:59 am

Image
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NWS for the Western Pacific

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Re: CPAC: EIGHT-C - Tropical Depression

#26 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 08, 2015 5:37 am

EURO doesn't do much with this for the next 168 hours just bringing more rain for the Marianas then all bets are off. It strengthens it into Koppu and has an intensifying typhoon moving southwest to the Philippines.

Philippines to Japan, lookout!

192 hours.

Image

240 hours.

Image
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Re: CPAC: EIGHT-C - Tropical Depression

#27 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 09, 2015 4:40 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4N
172.2E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

No longer appearing on NRLMRY as an invest but may get redesignated as a new invest later.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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