EPAC: NORA - Remnants

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EPAC: NORA - Remnants

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:52 pm

95E INVEST 151006 1800 7.9N 113.2W EPAC 15 1008

Image

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a
tropical wave located about 1000 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this system later this week while the low moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 06, 2015 8:40 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have become slightly better organized since
yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development of this system later this week while the low
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Forecaster Pasch
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#3 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:40 am

Correct me if I'm wrong please, but wasn't 95E already used for Marty's remnants?
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#4 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Oct 07, 2015 1:05 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have become slightly better organized since
yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development of this system later this week while the low
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
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#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Oct 07, 2015 7:57 am

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 1200 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
weekend while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
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#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Oct 07, 2015 8:00 am

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP952015  10/07/15  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    29    32    35    43    49    59    67    76    80    81    84
V (KT) LAND       25    27    29    32    35    43    49    59    67    76    80    81    84
V (KT) LGE mod    25    27    29    31    34    39    43    48    56    70    85    95   100
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         5     6     4     0     3     5     3     3     4     3     2     1     8
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0    -2    -3    -1    -2    -6    -3     0    -5     5     6     4    -1
SHEAR DIR         30    31    33   174   228   225   300    77   140    68    36   187   203
SST (C)         28.9  28.8  28.9  29.0  29.2  29.4  29.6  29.7  29.8  29.7  29.6  29.3  28.9
POT. INT. (KT)   156   155   155   156   158   160   162   162   162   161   160   157   153
200 MB T (C)   -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8
TH_E DEV (C)       7     8     8     9     9     9     8     8     8     8     7     7     7
700-500 MB RH     78    74    75    75    75    73    71    68    59    54    52    48    44
MODEL VTX (KT)     5     5     5     6     6     9    10    13    14    18    19    19    22
850 MB ENV VOR   -18   -26   -30   -33   -45   -41   -28   -17     9    44    68    71    79
200 MB DIV        38    29    12    29    36    63    51    43    56    45    36    31    28
700-850 TADV       0     0     1     4     4     2     2     1     0     0     0     0     0
LAND (KM)       1770  1818  1880  1943  2010  2141  2291  2426  2510  2365  2212  2036  1845
LAT (DEG N)      8.9   9.3   9.6   9.9  10.2  10.7  11.2  11.8  12.3  12.7  13.5  14.4  15.5
LONG(DEG W)    117.9 119.4 120.9 122.2 123.5 126.1 128.6 130.8 132.5 133.8 135.0 136.4 137.9
STM SPEED (KT)    16    15    14    13    13    13    12    10     8     7     8     9     8
HEAT CONTENT      21    22    25    26    22    15    16    26    29    26    22    26    24

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16      CX,CY: -15/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  528  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  23.4 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  33.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   2.   8.  15.  23.  29.  33.  36.  38.  40.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.  10.  11.  13.  13.  14.  14.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   1.   0.  -2.  -5.  -3.  -2.   0.   1.   1.   0.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   1.   2.   6.   8.  12.  14.  19.  22.  21.  25.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   1.   2.   2.   4.   5.   5.   5.   5.   5.   4.   4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -7.  -8.  -9.  -9.  -9. -10.  -9.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   4.   7.  10.  18.  24.  34.  42.  51.  56.  56.  59.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST     10/07/15  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  1.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   3.7 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 130.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  23.4 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.4
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  23.2 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.2
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  28.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  26.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  74.2 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/ -0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    31% is   2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     3% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     2% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST     10/07/15  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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#7 Postby Alyono » Thu Oct 08, 2015 12:08 pm

models keep trending westward with this. something Hawaii should be watching
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#8 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 08, 2015 8:22 pm

1. An area of disturbed weather centered about 1850 miles east- southeast of Hilo, Hawaii is moving west at 15 to 20 miles per hour. Scattered thunderstorms continue around this low pressure area with environmental conditions conducive for further development. The disturbance may develop into a tropical depression before crossing 140°W, which may occur as early as Saturday. Since the area of interest is east of 140°W refer to the national hurricane center's tropical weather outlook, under AWIPS header MIATWOEP and WMO header abpz20 KNHC, for additional details.
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#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 08, 2015 8:29 pm

I know many have not been paying attention, but this has a chance to become a very powerful hurricane. Wind shear is very very low, waters are quite warm, and this will have a CCKW support, and likely excellent outflow both poleward and equatorward.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 08, 2015 8:32 pm

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP952015  10/09/15  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    31    38    44    55    70    83    88    95    97   101   104
V (KT) LAND       25    28    31    38    44    55    70    83    88    95    97   101   104
V (KT) LGE mod    25    28    31    34    38    47    63    84   102   114   118   117   116
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         1     2     1     4     6     4     6     4     6     3     9     4     7
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -2    -1    -1    -2    -4    -4    -6    -2    -6    -4    -1    -3     0
SHEAR DIR        245   218   324    40    82   132    83    95    88   107   334   343    49
SST (C)         29.7  29.7  29.9  29.9  29.8  29.6  29.3  29.1  29.0  29.0  28.9  28.8  28.6
POT. INT. (KT)   164   164   166   166   164   162   159   156   154   152   151   150   149
200 MB T (C)   -52.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.0 -51.4 -50.9
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     8     9    10    10     9     8     9     9     9     8
700-500 MB RH     77    77    77    73    72    66    61    64    62    62    56    57    58
MODEL VTX (KT)     9     9    11    13    13    13    16    20    19    23    24    27    28
850 MB ENV VOR   -25   -13    -8    -8   -10   -15    15    34    48    53    51    50    61
200 MB DIV        92    93    71    39    38    43    54    58    62    48    75    42    72
700-850 TADV       0     1     2     4     3     3     2     0     0     0    -1     0     3
LAND (KM)       2408  2517  2619  2463  2308  2046  1813  1604  1426  1311  1241  1173  1078
LAT (DEG N)     10.1  10.4  10.6  10.9  11.1  11.3  11.4  11.4  11.6  11.7  12.1  12.8  14.2
LONG(DEG W)    129.0 130.6 132.2 133.7 135.1 137.7 140.1 142.4 144.3 145.6 146.1 146.3 146.3
STM SPEED (KT)    17    16    15    14    13    12    12    10     8     4     4     5     7
HEAT CONTENT      26    25    29    39    44    19    20    20    27    27    30    34    22

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17      CX,CY: -16/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  493  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  11.3 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  77.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.   0.   1.   7.  15.  23.  30.  33.  35.  37.  39.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   4.   5.   7.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.  13.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.   4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.   1.   4.   6.   7.   7.   5.   6.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   4.   5.   6.  11.  16.  16.  21.  23.  27.  28.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   6.   6.   5.   5.   5.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   6.  13.  19.  30.  45.  58.  63.  70.  72.  76.  79.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST     10/09/15  00 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  1.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   2.7 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.3
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 140.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  11.3 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.8
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  32.6 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.4
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  66.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.4
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  74.2 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/ -0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    71% is   5.4 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    48% is   5.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    29% is   4.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    29% is   7.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%)


HWRF and GFDL each forecast a sub-965 mbar, along with the GFS. ECMWF is much less aggressive, so there is some uncertainty.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#11 Postby jaguarjace » Thu Oct 08, 2015 9:37 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
147 PM HST THU OCT 8 2015

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. An area of disturbed weather centered about 1850 miles east- southeast of Hilo, Hawaii is moving west at 15 to 20 miles per hour.
Scattered thunderstorms continue around this low pressure area with environmental conditions conducive for further development.
The disturbance may develop into a tropical depression before crossing 140°W, which may occur as early as Saturday.
Since the area of interest is east of 140°W refer to the national hurricane center's tropical weather outlook, under AWIPS header MIATWOEP and WMO header abpz20 KNHC, for additional details.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 60 percent elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday afternoon.
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#12 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 08, 2015 10:17 pm

Lots of uncertainty as the models continue to have different opinions on whether that high builds back.
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#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 08, 2015 10:48 pm

Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better
organized in association with a tropical wave located about 1500
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
by the weekend or early next week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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Re:

#14 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 08, 2015 10:54 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Lots of uncertainty as the models continue to have different opinions on whether that high builds back.


Only model that does that is the CMC. The rest are in excellent agreement in the short-medium range, with some uncertainty on the forward speed and angle of re-curve.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#15 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 08, 2015 11:48 pm

The GFS continues to forecast a powerful hurricane near 145W in the upcoming days. The GFS run shows virtually no shear, and an excellent outflow channel from the north and the south-southwest, typical of extremely intense Pacific hurricanes. However, the 12z ECMWF shows only a minimal hurricane, with even that appears to be an outlier based on the ensemble probabilities, mean, and control. Main reason for the difference is that the ECMWF does not show much of a SSW outflow channel developing, perhaps due to a weaker CCKW.
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#16 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:20 am

Up to 70/90

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 1550 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continues to show signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
weekend or early next week while the system moves west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#17 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 09, 2015 1:28 am

Yellow Evan wrote:The GFS continues to forecast a powerful hurricane near 145W in the upcoming days. The GFS run shows virtually no shear, and an excellent outflow channel from the north and the south-southwest, typical of extremely intense Pacific hurricanes. However, the 12z ECMWF shows only a minimal hurricane, with even that appears to be an outlier based on the ensemble probabilities, mean, and control. Main reason for the difference is that the ECMWF does not show much of a SSW outflow channel developing, perhaps due to a weaker CCKW.


Euro now even further west and weaker. I'm agreeing that it's likely to be the outlier and it may be windshield wiping considering it was in line with other models yesterday.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#18 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 09, 2015 7:46 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:The GFS continues to forecast a powerful hurricane near 145W in the upcoming days. The GFS run shows virtually no shear, and an excellent outflow channel from the north and the south-southwest, typical of extremely intense Pacific hurricanes. However, the 12z ECMWF shows only a minimal hurricane, with even that appears to be an outlier based on the ensemble probabilities, mean, and control. Main reason for the difference is that the ECMWF does not show much of a SSW outflow channel developing, perhaps due to a weaker CCKW.


Euro now even further west and weaker. I'm agreeing that it's likely to be the outlier and it may be windshield wiping considering it was in line with other models yesterday.


I find it hard to dimiss the best model we have. ECMWF doesn't do much with it through 48 hours. Right now, this is almost a TD. If we see little development within 24-36 hours, then, I'd largely agree with it.

HWRF has backed off quite a bit and is now in line with the ECMWF.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Fri Oct 09, 2015 8:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 09, 2015 8:00 am

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP952015  10/09/15  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    34    39    44    48    59    69    76    83    83    81    80    80
V (KT) LAND       30    34    39    44    48    59    69    76    83    83    81    80    80
V (KT) LGE mod    30    33    38    42    48    60    71    82    91    94    92    87    81
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         2     6     7     8     8     3     8     3     5     8     8     5     9
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     0    -2    -3    -5    -5    -1     0    -2     0     2     3     6
SHEAR DIR         58    56    98   138   151   171   187   131   190   239   260   254   229
SST (C)         29.7  29.9  29.8  29.7  29.6  29.4  29.1  29.0  28.9  28.8  28.7  28.4  27.6
POT. INT. (KT)   163   166   164   163   162   159   155   154   151   150   149   147   139
200 MB T (C)   -53.0 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     9    10    10    10     8     8     8     9     9     9     8
700-500 MB RH     72    69    70    65    62    57    58    56    52    50    51    53    53
MODEL VTX (KT)    10    10    11    12    12    14    16    18    21    24    24    24    25
850 MB ENV VOR   -14   -15   -16   -17   -19    16    41    57    60    58    55    50    46
200 MB DIV        63    21    14    11    29    31    57    49    48    52    47    48    54
700-850 TADV       3     6     7     6     5     4     1     0     0     0     1     4     9
LAND (KM)       2544  2523  2377  2232  2088  1852  1645  1484  1348  1247  1175  1105  1067
LAT (DEG N)     11.0 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x
LONG(DEG W)    131.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    14    14    14    14    13    11     9     7     5     4     5     8     8
HEAT CONTENT      28    35    46    33    20    19    20    26    31    23    17    16    12

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14      CX,CY: -13/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  502  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  14.5 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  92.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   2.   8.  15.  22.  27.  30.  31.  33.  34.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   7.   8.  10.  10.  10.  11.  11.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   2.   2.   1.  -2.  -5.  -7.  -8.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -5.  -7.  -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   2.   2.   5.   9.  12.  16.  19.  21.  20.  22.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   3.   3.   3.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           4.   9.  14.  18.  29.  39.  46.  53.  53.  51.  50.  50.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST     10/09/15  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  1.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   6.3 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 133.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  14.5 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.7
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  32.4 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  27.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.4
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  68.8 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    49% is   3.8 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    31% is   3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    23% is   3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    17% is   4.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
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#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 09, 2015 8:02 am

Shower and thunderstorm activity have become better organized in
association with a low pressure area located about 1650 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions
are conducive, and a tropical depression is expected to form later
today or tonight while the system moves west-northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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