EPAC: OLAF - Post-Tropical

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#281 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 25, 2015 11:18 am

GFS second run in a row where it shows a close call with California.
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#282 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 25, 2015 5:43 pm

WTPA45 PHFO 252039
TCDCP5

HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
1100 AM HST SUN OCT 25 2015

THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF OLAF HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REMAIN 4.5/77 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. THUS HAVE KEPT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. RECENT SSMIS
AND WINDSAT IMAGERY INDICATE A SLIGHTLY TILTED SYSTEM WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER LIKELY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE EYE AS SEEN IN
CONVENTIONAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

OLAF CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST BETWEEN AN EAST
TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND
A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE FOR
OLAF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BEYOND 48
HOURS WITH THE GFS AND GFDL CONTINUING ON A NORTHEAST TRACK WHILE
THE ECMWF...UKMET AND NAVGEM SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND TURNING IT
SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE AS THE TROUGH MOVES
AWAY TO THE EAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SLOWING OLAF DOWN AND TURNING IT TOWARD THE RIGHT
BEYOND 48 HOURS.

THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY PACKAGE. OLAF IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING 20 TO 25 KT OF
WESTERLY SHEAR. SHIPS GUIDANCE KEEPS HIGH SHEAR VALUES OVER THE
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS ALONG WITH COOLER SST
VALUES ALONG ITS PATH WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING AS
INDICATED BY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. OLAF IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TO A
DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. BY DAY 4 WE EXPECT OLAF TO BECOME
VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH JUST A SHALLOW LOW EXPECTED WITH
DISSIPATION FORECAST BY DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 22.5N 143.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 23.8N 142.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 25.5N 139.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 27.1N 137.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 28.4N 134.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 28.4N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 26.2N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BURKE
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#283 Postby supercane » Mon Oct 26, 2015 12:01 am

WTPA45 PHFO 260237
TCDCP5

HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
500 PM HST SUN OCT 25 2015

THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF OLAF HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE AS
STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IMPACTS THE SYSTEM. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 4.0/65 KT FROM PHFO AND JTWC AND 4.5/77 KT
FROM SAB. BASED ON THESE FIXES ALONG WITH ITS RECENT APPEARANCE IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAVE LOWERED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 70 KT WITH
THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. A 0058Z SSMIS PASS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
TILTED SYSTEM WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION.

OLAF IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OLAF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OLAF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ABOUT 48
HOURS. BEYOND 48 HOURS A MUCH WEAKER AND SLOWER MOVING OLAF WILL
COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN TO ITS
NORTHWEST. A RATHER SHARP TURN TO THE RIGHT IS FORECAST BY MOST OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND 48 HOURS WITH THE GFS REMAINING AN OUTLIER
DUE TO KEEPING OLAF AS A STRONGER SYSTEM AT THAT TIME.

THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY LOWER FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL WEAKENING TREND
OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. OLAF IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
20 TO 30 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. SHIPS GUIDANCE KEEPS HIGH SHEAR
VALUES OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS ALONG WITH
COOLER SST VALUES ALONG ITS PATH WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING AS
INDICATED BY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. OLAF IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING AND TO A
DEPRESSION BY 72 HOURS. BY DAY 4 WE EXPECT OLAF TO BECOME VOID OF
DEEP CONVECTION WITH JUST A SHALLOW LOW EXPECTED WITH DISSIPATION
FORECAST BY DAY 5. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY ALONG WITH MOST OF THE
RELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 23.5N 142.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 25.0N 141.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 26.5N 138.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 28.0N 135.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 28.6N 133.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 28.1N 132.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 27.0N 132.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BURKE
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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#284 Postby AJC3 » Mon Oct 26, 2015 3:13 am

The erstwhile CDO has essentially been stripped from the LLC over the past 2-4 hours. Rapid weakening is sure to follow, though I'm sure some highly sheared convection will occasionally flare for the next day or two.
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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Tropical Storm

#285 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 26, 2015 4:57 am

TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
1100 PM HST SUN OCT 25 2015

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OLAF HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME CONFINED TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE APPARENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
/LLCC/...WHICH HAS BEEN LOCATED WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF RECENT ASCAT
AND MICROWAVE DATA. STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES TO IMPACT OLAF...WITH SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR MAGNITUDE
ESTIMATES CURRENTLY RUNNING 30 TO 33 KT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FINAL
T-NUMBERS CAME IN AT 3.5/55 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. ALTHOUGH
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN STRONGER DUE TO
CONSTRAINTS...RANGING FROM 4.0/65 KT TO 4.5/77 KT...BASED ON THE
RECENT ASCAT PASS AND THE POOR SATELLITE APPEARANCE OLAF WILL BE
DOWNGRADED TO A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM WITH THIS ADVISORY.

OLAF CONTINUES TO TRACK STEADILY TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/10 KT. OLAF IS BEING STEERED BY AN
EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE...AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OLAF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE OF
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER ABOUT 48
HOURS...OR POSSIBLY SOONER...OLAF IS FORECAST TO BECOME COMPLETELY
DECOUPLED...WITH THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CENTER TURNING SHARPLY
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND
THE LATEST GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WELL. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.

CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AS OLAF WILL BE IMPACTED BY
PERSISTENT STRONG WESTERLY WIND WIND SHEAR...AND WILL BE MOVING
OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST WEAKENS OLAF TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY 48
HOURS...AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED
BY DAY 4. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON CONSENSUS...WHICH
REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER WEAKENING RATES SHOWN BY
THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...AND THE SLOWER RATES SHOWN
BY MANY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 24.1N 142.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 25.4N 140.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 26.8N 137.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 27.8N 135.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 28.2N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 26.0N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON
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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Tropical Storm

#286 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 26, 2015 9:59 am

TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
500 AM HST MON OCT 26 2015

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OLAF HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY DURING THE NIGHT. DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT PRESENT...AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AS CONFIRMED BY RECENT FOG PRODUCT
IMAGERY. STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT
OLAF...WITH SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR MAGNITUDE ESTIMATES CURRENTLY
RUNNING 27 TO 30 KT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS CAME IN AT
3.0/45 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. ALTHOUGH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN STRONGER DUE TO CONSTRAINTS...RANGING FROM 3.5/55
KT TO 4.0/65 KT...BASED ON THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND THE CONTINUED
DEGENERATION OF THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
BE LOWERED TO 50 KT WITH THIS ADVISORY.

OLAF CONTINUES TO TRACK STEADILY TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/09 KT. OLAF IS BEING STEERED
PRIMARILY BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PACIFIC. THIS TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OLAF TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE OF FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
SO. THEREAFTER...OLAF IS FORECAST TO BECOME COMPLETELY DECOUPLED
WITH THE REMNANT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TURNING SHARPLY BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LEAVES OLAF BEHIND AND A
STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN IS NUDGED TOWARD
TVCN THEREAFTER.

CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AS OLAF WILL BE IMPACTED BY
PERSISTENT STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR...AND WILL BE MOVING
OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST WEAKENS OLAF TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY 36
HOURS...AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION
EXPECTED BY DAY 4. THIS IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
ICON CONSENSUS AND WITH THE GFDL/HWRF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 24.6N 141.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 25.5N 140.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 26.7N 137.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 27.4N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 26.9N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1200Z 25.0N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON
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#287 Postby supercane » Mon Oct 26, 2015 3:55 pm

WTPA35 PHFO 262049
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
200 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2015

...OLAF RETURNS TO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN...
...NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 138.1W
ABOUT 1290 MI...2075 KM ENE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
<rest omitted>

WTPA45 PHFO 262055
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
200 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2015

EARLIER DATA SUGGESTED THAT OLAF WAS A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH A LOW
LEVEL CENTER SIGNIFICANTLY DISPLACED SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SATELLITE...MICROWAVE AND LIGHTNING DATA FROM
RIGHT AROUND THE 1800 UTC SYNOPTIC HOUR AND MORE RECENT DATA
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS ACTUALLY EAST OF 140W...OR MAY HAVE
REDEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...A
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE WORKING BEST TRACK IN
TERMS OF INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CAME IN AT A UNANIMOUS 3.5/55 KT FROM THE FIX AGENCIES. AN AMENDED
FIX BY PHFO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADJUSTED POSITION MAINTAINED 55 KT AS
AN INTENSITY. THE 1845 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A MAXIMUM WIND FLAG OF
50 KT AND THIS WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

DESPITE THE MORNING SURPRISE AND THE ADJUSTMENT IN INITIAL
POSITION...THE OVERALL BASIS FOR THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS THE
SAME. OLAF IS EXPECTED TO RIDE A STEERING CURRENT PROVIDED BY A DEEP
LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. VERTICAL
SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE THE LOWER LEVEL
CIRCULATION FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE BEYOND 48 HOURS AND MOVE WHAT IS LEFT OF OLAF TOWARD
THE SOUTH AND THEN WEST IN A CLOCKWISE LOOP. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGE
IN INITIAL POSITION AND SPEED AND IS IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS
CONSENSUS.

OLAF IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING IN THE FACE OF
PERSISTENT STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BELOW 26 C. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BE COOLING ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK. THUS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR OLAF TO WEAKEN TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...THEN BECOME A
REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS. THIS WEAKENING IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE DYNAMIC CONSENSUS BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS SHIPS.

SINCE OLAF HAS MOVED EAST OF 140W...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY
ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM PDT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 25.7N 138.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 26.6N 137.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 27.9N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 27.8N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 26.8N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z 24.6N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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#288 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 26, 2015 3:56 pm

Yes!!! Olaf did it!
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#289 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 26, 2015 4:43 pm

Did what? :uarrow:
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Re:

#290 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 26, 2015 4:44 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Did what? :uarrow:


Moved back into NHC territory.
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#291 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Oct 26, 2015 6:16 pm

I would wager there won't be too many advisories after the historic crossover though as it is rapidly losing tropical convective structure. Still, just the feat alone is extremely impressive and I am glad to see a storm this year accomplish it. Even more impressively the very same storm that already set the basin record for southernmost existence at multiple intensity levels.

I wonder how many bad Frozen jokes have been concocted by the forty six or so people on earth who follow the EPAC... I would say it's time for the CPHC to let it go, but I do not wish to taint this thread with the horror of said film. :p
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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#292 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 26, 2015 9:40 pm

TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
800 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2015

Olaf has become less organized over the past several hours. The
associated convection has decreased and has been displaced
northeast of the center by 25 kt of vertical wind shear. In
addition, the low-level circulation has become elongated from
northeast to southwest. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB are 45 kt, so the initial intensity is reduced to that value.

A combination of continuing shear, cool sea surface temperatures,
and dry air entrainment should keep Olaf on a weakening trend. The
cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical depression in about 24
hours and degenerate to a remnant low in about 48 hours, and both
of these events could occur earlier than currently forecast if new
convection does not form near the center. The new forecast is an
update of the previous CPHC forecast.

The initial motion is 060/16. Olaf is currently being steered by
a strong deep-layer trough to the north of the cyclone. This
trough is forecast to move quickly eastward, with a low-level ridge
building in its wake to the north of Olaf. As Olaf weakens and
becomes a shallow system, this ridge should become the dominant
steering mechanism and cause the cyclone to turn southward and
eventually southwestward. The new forecast track is similar to the
previous track and lies near the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 26.3N 137.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 27.2N 135.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 27.8N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 27.3N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 26.1N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0000Z 24.5N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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#293 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Oct 26, 2015 11:26 pm

While the official forecast calls for Olaf to become post tropical or dissipate long before such happens, I would love to see it maintain itself enough to still warrant advisories when it drifts back west over the 140 line again. :D Let's go for some more records while we're at it!
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Tropical Storm

#294 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 27, 2015 4:58 am

TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015

Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern associated with
Olaf is rapidly deteriorating due to the effects of southwesterly
shear and cold water. The low-level center is becoming elongated and
the remnant convection is well removed from the center. Based on a
recent ASCAT data, the initial intensity is set at 40 kt. Global
models indicate that the cyclone will continue to decouple fast, and
most likely the cyclone will degenerate into a remnant low later
today, and into a trough of low pressure in a day or two.

The overall circulation is moving toward the northeast at 10 kt.
However, as the system becomes a shallow cyclone or a trough in
about a day, it will be steered west-southwestward by the low-level
flow associated with an eastward moving high pressure system to the
north of Olaf. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and
it follows the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 26.4N 136.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 27.0N 134.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 27.0N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/1800Z 26.2N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/0600Z 25.5N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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#295 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Oct 27, 2015 7:27 am

Five day track is interesting. Either goes no where or heads back west.
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#296 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 27, 2015 9:45 am

Is over.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015

Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that the system is devoid
of deep convection, so Olaf is no longer a tropical cyclone and
advisories are being discontinued at this time. Data from a recent
scatterometer overpass showed that the low-level circulation
is becoming elongated, but the system is still producing winds to
gale force. With the lack of convection or strong baroclinic
forcing, the cyclone is likely to gradually spin down and dissipate
in a few days.

The post-tropical cyclone has been moving east-northeastward, or
060/9 kt. Global models show a low-level ridge building to the
north of the system over the next couple of days. This should
cause a turn toward the southwest and west-southwest by tomorrow.
The official forecast also shows this turn, although it is not
quite as fast as the dynamical model consensus.

For additional information on Olaf, please see High SeasForecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 26.7N 135.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 28/0000Z 26.9N 134.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 28/1200Z 26.2N 134.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0000Z 25.4N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1200Z 25.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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