EPAC: OLAF - Post-Tropical

[Extratropical94]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in association with an
area of low pressure located about 850 miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. However, environmental
conditions are expected to become conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later this week or this
weekend while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is expected
to form later this week or this weekend while the system moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[cycloneye]

It took it's time but is about to go boom.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 925 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula are beginning to show signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for additional development and a tropical depression is expected to
form during the next couple of days while this system moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 950 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula have increased and become better
organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form
tonight or on Thursday while this system moves westward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

SHIPS/LGEM forecast a major, with the LGEM calling for a mid-grade Cat 4. The GFS and ECMWF depict excellent poleward and eqautorword outflow channels, which should favor RI. HWRf/GFDL intensify this somewhat slowly over the next 36-48 hours, but given it's great structure and outflow already, I see little reason that it won't intensify at 1 T number per day for the net 3-4 days. In 5 days about, the window for deepening will likely close, as south-southwesterly wind shear may keep this in check as the storm re-curves out to sea.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 96, 2015101500, , BEST, 0, 99N, 1171W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
800 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2015

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about
1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become better organized. The cloud pattern
consists of a large curved band on its western side and a central
dense overcast feature. In addition, a partial ASCAT pass from
earlier today suggested that the center of circulation has become
better defined. On this basis, this system is classified as a
tropical depression, the nineteenth one of the 2015 eastern North
Pacific season. The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt, following
a Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB and the earlier ASCAT data.

The depression is moving just south of due west at about 16 kt
steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. A general westward
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
few days while the ridge remains in place but weakens. After that
time, a turn to the northwest is predicted as the cyclone moves
toward a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level
trough. The model guidance is in fair agreement, and the official
track forecast lies near the consensus aids.

Low wind shear, warm water, and a fairly moist environment should
allow the system to strengthen during the next several days. The
SHIPS and LGEM models show significant strengthening, bringing the
system to hurricane strength within 48 hours with continued
intensification thereafter. The official forecast is less
aggressive than those models, but still does call for the depression
to strengthen steadily for the next few days. This forecast is
between the dynamical and statistical guidance, and a little lower
than the intensity model consensus. It is interesting to note that
the GFS and ECMWF models also show the system deepening
significantly toward the end of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 9.9N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 9.7N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 9.5N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 9.5N 124.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 9.6N 126.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 10.0N 130.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 11.4N 132.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 13.5N 135.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

Umm, why is the NHC not forecasting a Cat 4? The guidance notorious for a low bias is calling for Cat 2/3, and they are only forecasting 85 knots. I do not understand why the NHC is conservative when it comes to first advisory forecasts.

[Yellow Evan]

Look at how high these outputs are:

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                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP962015  10/14/15  06 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    30    35    40    52    62    74    84    93   100   108   111
V (KT) LAND       25    27    30    35    40    52    62    74    84    93   100   108   111
V (KT) LGE mod    25    27    30    32    35    43    54    68    87   108   127   136   136
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        10     7     5     4     4     3     1     4     5     7    11    13    14
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     4     0     1     3     1    -1    -4    -5    -2    -3    -4    -4    -6
SHEAR DIR         20    13    18    15    52    84   200    67    84    41    23     9     8
SST (C)         29.5  29.5  29.5  29.3  29.1  28.9  29.2  29.7  29.9  30.0  29.8  29.7  29.7
POT. INT. (KT)   162   163   163   161   158   156   159   163   165   165   161   158   158
200 MB T (C)   -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0
TH_E DEV (C)      10    10    10    10    10    10    10     8     8     7     7     7     7
700-500 MB RH     67    67    63    63    63    62    63    66    70    73    75    76    79
MODEL VTX (KT)     8     9     9     9    10    11    12    13    15    19    22    27    30
850 MB ENV VOR   -15   -12    -7    -5   -10     2    27    44    67    83    90    77    63
200 MB DIV        41    36    38    47    36    31    44    44    58    76    88   160   185
700-850 TADV       2     2     1     1     3     4     0     0    -2    -3    -5    -5    -1
LAND (KM)       1231  1347  1466  1552  1656  1898  2121  2361  2583  2605  2499  2438  2415
LAT (DEG N)     10.6  10.7  10.8  10.8  10.8  10.7  10.6  10.3   9.9   9.3   8.8   8.7   9.1
LONG(DEG W)    112.0 113.8 115.5 117.3 119.1 122.5 125.7 128.6 131.0 133.0 134.4 135.1 135.1
STM SPEED (KT)    15    17    17    18    17    16    15    13    11     9     6     2     2
HEAT CONTENT      30    57    67    58    39    39    24    18    19    19    20    19    18
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    38% is   2.9 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    29% is   3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    21% is   3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

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                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP962015  10/14/15  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    30    34    40    52    65    77    87    95   104   107   111
V (KT) LAND       25    27    30    34    40    52    65    77    87    95   104   107   111
V (KT) LGE mod    25    27    30    32    35    43    55    71    91   113   129   134   132
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         7     6     4     3     3     2     2     5     5     9    12    14    11
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     0     3     2     0    -2    -4    -3    -3    -5    -5    -5    -9
SHEAR DIR         12    12    14    45    66   114    50    70    48    33    16    13   349
SST (C)         29.4  29.4  29.3  29.1  28.9  29.0  29.3  29.8  30.0  30.0  29.8  29.8  29.8
POT. INT. (KT)   161   162   160   158   156   157   159   164   165   164   160   159   160
200 MB T (C)   -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C)      10    10    10    10    10    10     9     8     8     8     7     7     7
700-500 MB RH     67    64    64    63    63    63    67    69    72    74    76    78    80
MODEL VTX (KT)     9    10    10    10    10    11    13    14    16    20    24    27    31
850 MB ENV VOR   -15    -9    -5    -8    -3     7    28    43    61    70    68    59    53
200 MB DIV        44    49    58    47    32    47    56    74    88    88   100   158   181
700-850 TADV       2     0     0     1     3     2    -1    -1    -2    -3    -4    -2    -1
LAND (KM)       1368  1495  1571  1663  1767  1998  2211  2432  2654  2597  2508  2468  2434
LAT (DEG N)     10.3  10.4  10.5  10.5  10.5  10.4  10.3  10.0   9.5   9.1   8.8   9.0   9.8
LONG(DEG W)    113.6 115.4 117.1 118.7 120.4 123.6 126.6 129.2 131.5 133.2 134.3 134.6 134.5
STM SPEED (KT)    15    17    16    16    16    15    14    12    10     7     3     2     4
HEAT CONTENT      56    65    59    45    43    33    29    22    19    20    20    18    17

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                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP962015  10/14/15  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    32    38    44    58    70    82    91    98   100   103   108
V (KT) LAND       25    28    32    38    44    58    70    82    91    98   100   103   108
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    28    30    33    42    55    72    93   111   121   124   126
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         6     4     5     5     4     2     5     6    10    12    22    16     9
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     3     1     0    -2    -5    -1    -1    -3    -3    -8    -6    -7
SHEAR DIR         10    19    38    69    81    43     8    37    10    12     9     3   331
SST (C)         29.3  29.2  29.1  28.9  28.9  29.2  29.5  30.0  30.0  29.9  29.8  29.8  29.8
POT. INT. (KT)   160   159   158   156   156   158   161   166   165   162   159   161   161
200 MB T (C)   -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1
TH_E DEV (C)      10    10     9    10     9     9     8     8     8     8     7     7     6
700-500 MB RH     65    64    64    64    63    65    67    68    71    74    77    80    82
MODEL VTX (KT)    10    10    10    11    12    13    14    16    20    24    25    27    31
850 MB ENV VOR    -8    -3    -3     0     5    19    28    44    66    68    62    45    53
200 MB DIV        56    76    65    45    43    50    53    75    81   108   132   136   116
700-850 TADV       1     1     1     3     3     0    -2    -2    -4    -5    -2     0     0
LAND (KM)       1514  1601  1682  1785  1898  2112  2343  2565  2715  2597  2537  2508  2437
LAT (DEG N)     10.0  10.1  10.2  10.2  10.1  10.0   9.6   9.2   8.7   8.4   8.3   8.8  10.1
LONG(DEG W)    115.2 116.9 118.6 120.2 121.8 124.8 127.6 130.1 132.2 133.6 134.3 134.3 134.3
STM SPEED (KT)    15    17    16    16    15    14    13    12     9     6     2     4     6
HEAT CONTENT      64    60    48    41    42    34    31    21    21    21    21    20    17

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14      CX,CY: -13/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  546  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  13.8 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  86.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   2.   8.  15.  23.  30.  34.  36.  38.  41.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.  10.  10.  10.   9.   9.   9.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   3.   6.   8.  10.  11.  11.  11.  10.   9.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   5.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   1.   2.   4.   6.   9.  14.  20.  22.  25.  30.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -3.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.   3.   3.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   3.   3.   2.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   7.  13.  19.  33.  45.  57.  66.  73.  75.  78.  83.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST     10/14/15  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.8
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   5.1 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 132.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  13.8 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.7
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  51.0 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.6
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  57.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.3
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.3
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  72.0 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/ -0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    58% is   4.4 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    38% is   4.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    25% is   4.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    24% is   5.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

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                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP962015  10/15/15  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    34    39    45    52    65    77    88    95   101   104   107   107
V (KT) LAND       30    34    39    45    52    65    77    88    95   101   104   107   107
V (KT) LGE mod    30    33    37    41    47    60    77    97   115   124   127   126   123
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         6     8     7     8     8     8     6     6     6     8     9     3     6
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     2     0     0    -2    -4    -3    -1     0     0    -3    -5    -3    -4
SHEAR DIR          9    24    55    69    63    33    43    11   349   345   343   276   210
SST (C)         29.2  29.0  28.9  28.9  29.0  29.2  29.4  29.8  29.9  29.9  29.8  29.5  29.3
POT. INT. (KT)   159   157   155   155   155   157   159   162   163   163   162   159   157
200 MB T (C)   -51.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -52.3 -51.5 -52.5 -51.5 -52.0 -51.2
TH_E DEV (C)       9     9     9     9     9     8     8     8     8     7     7     7     7
700-500 MB RH     65    63    65    66    67    70    70    71    73    74    75    71    65
MODEL VTX (KT)    10    10    11    12    13    14    15    18    22    27    29    32    35
850 MB ENV VOR    -1    -3     1     4     6    11    17    29    37    41    73    82   102
200 MB DIV        81    62    43    51    56    64    89    90   136   159   180   150   123
700-850 TADV       0     0     1     2     0    -1     0    -2    -3    -5    -3    -1     5
LAND (KM)       1630  1720  1819  1914  2014  2168  2285  2401  2511  2588  2502  2332  2163
LAT (DEG N)      9.9 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x
LONG(DEG W)    117.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    15    15    13    12    12    10     9     8     8     8     8     8     7
HEAT CONTENT      59    47    39    38    40    41    37    24    19    19    18    18    17

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 16      CX,CY: -15/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  482  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  17.8 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  83.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   3.   8.  14.  21.  27.  30.  32.  34.  36.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   2.   3.   5.   6.   7.   8.   9.   9.  10.  11.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   4.   6.   9.  10.  10.  10.   8.   6.   4.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   4.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   1.   3.   5.   8.  12.  18.  25.  29.  33.  35.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -2.  -4.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   1.   2.   2.   4.   5.   6.   6.   5.   5.   5.   5.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           4.   9.  15.  22.  35.  47.  58.  65.  71.  74.  77.  77.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST     10/15/15  00 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  1.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   7.2 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 126.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  17.8 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.6
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  44.6 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.5
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  58.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.3
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.2
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  73.2 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/ -0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    41% is   3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    30% is   3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    21% is   3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    16% is   3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Alyono]

MU now brings this to Hawaii. Looks to be a question as to whether or not the trough near 140W catches this

[Kingarabian]

MU now brings this to Hawaii. Looks to be a question as to whether or not the trough near 140W catches this

It has been windshield wiping the past few days. Seems like after the initial trough that catches it, the question remains whether the high builds back and remains in place.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
200 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015

The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the
past several hours. A large area of convection remains near the
center, with some banding features noted in the northwestern
quadrant. The initial wind speed estimate remains 30 kt in
agreement with the TAFB/SAB Dvorak values and ASCAT data.

The large-scale environment seems favorable for strengthening
over the next several days with low wind shear, very warm water and
moist mid-level conditions likely in the cyclone's path. Thus
strengthening is predicted, similar to the previous forecast, and
the official forecast is near the intensity consensus. Rapid
intensification seems like a reasonable possibility in the next few
days if the cyclone develops an inner core, and a few models are
showing the cyclone as a major hurricane in the 3-5 day time frame.
Although a hurricane that strong would be quite rare so far west in
the eastern Pacific in late October, this season's storms have
peaked quite a bit farther west than typical, so this scenario
should be mentioned.

A pair of ASCAT passes indicates that the center of the depression
was a bit farther north than geostationary satellite suggested,
although the initial motion remains west, now at about 14 kt.
This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is still
expected for the system during the next couple of days while the
subtropical ridge remains in place but weakens. After that time,
the cyclone should gradually turn toward the northwest due to a
weakness in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough. Model
guidance remains in good agreement, and the official forecast is
basically an update of the previous one, with a slight northward
adjustment to account for the initial position change.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 10.2N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 10.0N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 9.9N 123.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 9.9N 125.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 9.9N 127.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 10.6N 130.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 12.1N 133.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 14.5N 135.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

Odd that the T number went down.

15/1200 UTC 10.3N 119.6W T1.5/2.0 19E -- East Pacific

[Ntxw]

So this should be another long tracker? ACE is needed to beat 1990, about 30 units

[supercane]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 151448
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
800 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E's cloud pattern has changed little
during the past 6-12 hours and consists of a persistent cluster of
deep convection near the low-level center and a lengthening band
extending to the north and northeast. The maximum winds remain 30
kt based on Dvorak estimates of T2.0 from TAFB and SAB. Although
the depression has not strengthened yet, low vertical shear, very
warm waters, and a moist atmosphere favor intensification
throughout the five-day forecast period. As such, the NHC
intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and shows
the depression reaching hurricane intensity in a couple of days.
The intensity models all show intensification to varying degrees,
and the official forecast closely follows the intensity consensus
through 48 hours but then is a little higher (close to the SHIPS
and LGEM models) on days 3 through 5.

The low-level center has been difficult to locate, but the
depression appears to be moving westward, or 270/11 kt. An
elongated mid-level ridge is expected to remain north of the
depression for the next 3 days or so, but the ridge is expected
to weaken through the weekend as broad troughing develops west of
the Baja California peninsula. This pattern change should cause the
cyclone to gradually slow down and turn west-northwestward by day 3
and northwestward by day 5. With the exception of the UKMET model,
which does not show a northwestward turn by day 5, the remainder of
the track models are tightly clustered. The updated NHC track
forecast is close to the multi-model consensus and essentially
unchanged from the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 10.2N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 10.1N 121.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 10.0N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 10.0N 126.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 10.0N 128.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 10.8N 131.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 12.0N 133.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Kingarabian]

So this should be another long tracker? ACE is needed to beat 1990, about 30 units

Navy and CMC keep it weak and take it all the way to the CPAC.

Euro and GFS continue to blow it up in the medium range while they differ track. GFS tracks thus far have been promising in terms of ACE.

[Alyono]

visible shows the center may be as far south as 7N

[Darvince]

I agree with that Based on that it might not be getting much of anywhere today or tomorrow.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF seems to have backed off somewhat. This better not be another Nora.

[Yellow Evan]

Seeing some mid-level shear that may hinder this over the next 24-36 hours. Thereafter, real intensification should start.