EPAC: OLAF - Post-Tropical

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#201 Postby wxmann_91 » Tue Oct 20, 2015 3:04 am

It's not updating on the tropical tidbits site but pretty similar to 12Z. Gets close to 150W and then recurves. Massive vortex forming in the Gulf of Alaska next week from recurving TY Champi in the WPAC should carve out a fairly deep weakness. Only concern for HI is if Olaf's poleward motion continues to be stinted.
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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#202 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 20, 2015 4:58 am

HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
1100 PM HST MON OCT 19 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT OLAF CONTINUES ON A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TREND THAT BEGAN LAST NIGHT. THE EYE HAS WARMED AND
BECOME INCREASINGLY DISTINCT SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHILE
SURROUNDING EYE WALL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING. AVAILABLE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 6.0/115 KT TO 6.5/127 KT...
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS DEEMED TO BE 130 KT
BASED ON THE OBSERVED TRENDS. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE LOW
SIDE...AS THE EYE CONTINUED TO WARM THROUGH THE TIME THAT THE
ANALYSES WERE CONDUCTED.

TRACKING THE NEARLY 15 NM WIDE EYE OF OLAF OVER THE PAST 6 TO 8
HOURS LEADS TO AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/09 KT. LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE TO THE ONGOING TRACK PHILOSOPHY HAS BEEN PRESENTED
BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE...WITH OLAF EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN NORTHWEST
TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ON DAY 2 AND 3. ON DAYS 3
THROUGH 5...A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES NORTH OF OLAF ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE A
BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN 145W-150W LONGITUDE. AN
ESPECIALLY STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING OLAF AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO IMPART A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST. THE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THIS
SOLUTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...LEADING TO INCREASED
CONFIDENCE THAT OLAF WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS NEAR THE
GFEX...TVCN AND UKMET SOLUTIONS...AND LIES EAST OF THE GFS ON DAYS 3
THROUGH 5.

LATEST UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES INDICATE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 5
KT OR LESS...WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OLAF IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO BOTH THE NORTH AND THE SOUTH.
SOME ADDITIONAL...BUT MODEST...STRENGTHENING IS STILL LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS OLAF WILL REMAIN IN A LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
WITH SSTS OVER 29C. WITH A CYCLONE THIS INTENSE HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. THE UPDATED
INTENSITY FORECAST...AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
INITIAL CONDITION...FOLLOWS TRENDS PRESENTED BY THE PREVIOUS...AND
INDICATES A PEAK INTENSITY OF 135 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER
THIS TIME...A SLOW WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED ON DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH A
GREATER RATE OF WEAKENING FORECAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS OLAF MOVES OVER GRADUALLY LOWERING SSTS AND INTO A MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REGIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...JUST BELOW THE
SHIPS FORECAST...AND CLOSE TO THE LGEM...BUT DOES NOT INDICATE AS
FAST A WEAKENING TREND THAT LGEM DOES ON DAYS 4 AND 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 10.3N 140.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 10.9N 141.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 11.8N 143.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 12.7N 144.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 13.7N 145.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 16.3N 146.9W 115 KT 135 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 19.0N 147.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 21.5N 146.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$

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#203 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:32 am

We never got T7,0 due to a series of botch ups. JTWC forgot how to Dvorak, SAB didn't break constraints, TAFB never Dvoraked this thing. It's a shame, though despite the fact this was probs 7.0 worthy, I don think this was 140 knots, but rather 135.
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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#204 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:39 am

HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
500 AM HST TUE OCT 20 2015

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OLAF HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH A 10 TO 15 NM WIDE EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING
OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY. THIS
RING REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY COLD...AND THE EYE SUFFICIENTLY WARM...TO
YIELD A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 6.5/127 KT. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY PHFO...SAB AND UW-CIMSS ADT AND SATCON ANALYSES...AND AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 130 KT WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR FOR THIS ADVISORY...285/09 KT...IS
EXACTLY AS IT WAS EARLIER...WITH OLAF SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING TRACK PHILOSOPHY IS PRESENTED
BY THE LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE. OLAF IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO ITS NORTH. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE
WILL KEEP THE RIDGE WEAK ON THURSDAY...WITH OLAF THEN MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BETWEEN 145W AND 150W LONGITUDE INTO FRIDAY.
THIS TREND OF TURNING TO THE RIGHT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN EVEN SHARPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDUCING A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON DAY 5. THE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS
REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THEY HAVE
FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF CYCLES...LEADING TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT
OLAF WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE UPDATED
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AGAIN LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS NEAR THE GFEX AND TVCN THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCN AND GFS IN
ACCELERATING OLAF NORTHEASTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LATEST UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES INDICATE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 5
KT OR LESS...WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OLAF IN A COL BETWEEN
HIGH-LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED TO THE DISTANT EAST AND WEST...WHICH IS
SUPPLYING OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. SOME SMALL
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT AS OLAF WILL
REMAIN IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH SSTS OVER 29C. DIFFICULT TO
ANTICIPATE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES MAY COMPLICATE THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST INTENSITY FORECAST...BUT THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK CALLS FOR
A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY. MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO
LOWERING SSTS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS IVCN BUT BELOW SHIPS GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM...AND IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN IVCN IN WEAKENING OLAF AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS LGEM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 10.6N 141.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 11.3N 142.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 12.2N 144.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 13.2N 145.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 14.4N 146.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 17.1N 147.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 20.0N 147.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 22.5N 145.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$

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#205 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:40 am

it keeps missing the forecast points to the south
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#206 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 20, 2015 11:03 am

may have a G-IV flight on Friday
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#207 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 20, 2015 11:09 am

GFS shifting west. However, it is far too north even at its 18Z point. Has it at 11N at 18Z, when it is not going to be above 10.6N then
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#208 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 20, 2015 11:14 am

Alyono wrote:it keeps missing the forecast points to the south


Yeah and the GFS reflects this with each run.
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#209 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 20, 2015 11:20 am

we need a G-IV before Friday. This could make landfall as soon as Saturday
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#210 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 20, 2015 11:25 am

Alyono wrote:we need a G-IV before Friday. This could make landfall as soon as Saturday


Likely getting to the point where TS watches will be a sure bet for the Big Island and any more western movement would increase the chances for warnings.

Movement for the past 4 hours has been straight West.

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#211 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 20, 2015 11:36 am

MU has a NORTH California landfall after the west shift
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#212 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:06 pm

may be starting to make the turn
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#213 Postby Ntxw » Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:29 pm

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#214 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:29 pm

ECMWF was 25 miles too far north after just 6 hours... same as MU
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#215 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:32 pm

EC recurves. Looks to come close to missing the trough, which is why I wish there was a model that could actually get its short term motion correct. I wonder if there is a small ridge that the models simply havn't picked up on
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#216 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:37 pm

Alyono wrote:may be starting to make the turn


Lot's of climbing to do if it wants to remain on track.
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#217 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:54 pm

every time this looks to be turning, it reverts back to a 270 heading
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#218 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 20, 2015 3:11 pm

Models giving too much emphasis on upper level winds

The 200-700mb mean steering flow says a recurve

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

However, use any other level, lets say 400 to 850mb and you get a different evolution

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

Has the trough been too high in the atmosphere to turn this? The model verification stats have not been good at all for this hurricane (and by not good, I mean they have been close to useless based upon objective metrics)
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#219 Postby supercane » Tue Oct 20, 2015 3:55 pm

WTPA35 PHFO 202041
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
1100 AM HST TUE OCT 20 2015

...OLAF REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 142.1W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
<rest omitted>

WTPA45 PHFO 202041
TCDCP5

HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
1100 AM HST TUE OCT 20 2015

OLAF SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO SHOW A ROBUST AND HEALTHY
TROPICAL SYSTEM THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL-DEFINED 15 NM WIDE EYE
AND A CONCENTRIC RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE UNANIMOUS SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 6.5...127 KT...FROM ALL
THREE SATELLITE CENTERS PROMPTS US TO KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT
130 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

WHILE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCHANGED AT 285/09 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...OLAF APPEARS TO BE WOBBLING A BIT...WITH SIX HOUR MOTION
ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER...SINCE THE 1800 UTC
ANALYSIS CYCLE...OLAF MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE PICKED UP A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT ONCE AGAIN. THE OVERALL TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES...WITH ALL
GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A RECURVING TRACK KEEPING OLAF
WELL EAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SWELL GENERATED BY
OLAF WILL AFFECT THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS INTO THE
WEEKEND...PRODUCING SURF THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THEN BE LARGE...POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING AND DAMAGING.
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU FOR DETAILS.
OLAF WILL GRADUALLY GAIN LATITUDE THROUGH TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SLIDING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF DEEP
RIDGING TO ITS NORTH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS
EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND ALLOWING OLAF TO SLIP NORTHWARD
MORE QUICKLY. A STRONGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS EASTWARD
SATURDAY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND SCOOPING OLAF NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE DEEP TROPICS. THE CURRENT TRACK WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE LEFT THROUGH 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR INITIAL MOTION...THEN
FOLDED BACK INTO THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AFTERWARDS...FOLLOWING THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND TVCN CONSENSUS.

SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS INDICATE SHEAR IN THE 6 TO 8 KT
RANGE...GENERALLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. WHILE OUTFLOW DOES
APPEAR TO BE HINDERED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST...SHEAR HAS YET TO
IMPACT THE CENTRAL STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM. OLAF HAS NEARED ITS
PEAK INTENSITY AND MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING
FROM HERE ON OUT. HOWEVER...SINCE SHIPS INDICATES THAT SHEAR WILL
LIKELY REMAIN LOW THROUGH 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER
29C WATER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 12 HOURS. A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST AFTERWARDS THROUGH DAY THREE...WITH
RAPID WEAKENING FORECAST FOR DAYS FOUR AND FIVE AS SHEAR INCREASES
TO OVER 20 KT AND OLAF MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. THE WEAKENING TREND
MATCHES THAT OF IVCN...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN SHIPS AND SOME OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 10.8N 142.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 11.2N 143.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 12.2N 144.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 13.5N 145.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 14.8N 146.3W 115 KT 135 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 17.5N 147.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 20.3N 146.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 22.8N 145.1W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
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#220 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 20, 2015 4:11 pm

so cphc goes with an even sharper turn despite it showing no signs of turning?
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