EPAC: OLAF - Post-Tropical

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Kingarabian
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#221 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 20, 2015 5:07 pm

18z GFS through 4 days is less north than 12z.
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#222 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 20, 2015 5:12 pm

still recurves at 148W. The 0Z point looks as if it will verify for once
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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#223 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Tue Oct 20, 2015 7:53 pm

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#224 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:02 pm

Structure remains great.

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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#225 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:06 pm

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:[img]http://i.imgur.com/pCI2GNy.gif[img]


Chris, how is the xtrap forecast data calculated?
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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#226 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:20 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Chris_in_Tampa wrote:[img]http://i.imgur.com/pCI2GNy.gif[img]


Chris, how is the xtrap forecast data calculated?
It's just a simple extrapolation using the past twelve hour motion.

OCD5 (same track as CLP5, it just releases intensity data with it) and CLIP are special models too.

Model name listing:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/dat ... age=models

If you want an interactive version of those models:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/dat ... atestrun=1
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#227 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:06 pm

:uarrow:

Thank you.

I would like to see more ensemble support before I feel comfortable about a recurve. Euro ensembles @ 12z shifted more west after it heads north:

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#228 Postby supercane » Tue Oct 20, 2015 11:09 pm

WTPA35 PHFO 210244
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
500 PM HST TUE OCT 20 2015

...OLAF MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD FAR SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 143.1W
ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES
<rest omitted>

WTPA45 PHFO 210244
TCDCP5

HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
500 PM HST TUE OCT 20 2015

A WELL-DEFINED 15 NM MILE WIDE EYE PERSISTS WITHIN A SOLID AND
SYMMETRICAL RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW THAT OLAF MAY HAVE WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY FROM ITS EARLIER 130 KT PEAK. RANGING FROM 6.5...127
KT...FROM PHFO AND SAB TO 6.0...115 KT...FROM JTWC...THESE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE JOINED BY A UW-CIMSS ADT OF 6.1...117 KT. USING A
BLEND OF THESE...WE WILL ASSIGN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.

OLAF HAS GAINED ALMOST AS MUCH LATITUDE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS
IT HAS OVER THE PREVIOUS THREE DAYS...POSSIBLY INDICATING THAT THE
LONG-AWAITED RECURVATURE PROCESS HAS BEGUN. INITIAL MOTION IS ONCE
AGAIN SET AT 285/09 KT...WHICH IS ACTUALLY A 12 HOUR MOTION.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE 0000 UTC ANALYSIS CYCLE...OLAF APPEARS TO HAVE
ADOPTED A MORE NORTHERLY SHORT TERM MOTION. RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED...DEPICTING A RECURVING TRACK THROUGH THE
FIVE DAY FORECAST PERIOD. OLAF WILL GRADUALLY GAIN LATITUDE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SLIDING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
DEEP RIDGING TO ITS NORTH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS
EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND ALLOWING OLAF TO SLIP NORTHWARD
MORE QUICKLY. A STRONGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS EASTWARD
SATURDAY...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND SCOOPING OLAF NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE DEEP TROPICS. GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL CONFIDENCE IN THE
RECURVATURE SCENARIO...ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...MAINLY A SMALL BUMP
ONCE AGAIN TO THE LEFT THROUGH 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR INITIAL
MOTION. ALSO...TVCN CONSENSUS SHIFTED A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 15 MILES TO
THE LEFT AT 72 HOURS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED
ACCORDINGLY TO CLOSELY MATCH IT.

SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS SHOW 2 KT AND 12 KT OF WEST TO SOUTHWEST SHEAR
ACROSS OLAF...RESPECTIVELY. SATELLITE PRESENTATION SHOWS THE SYSTEM
CORE COMPLETELY UNAFFECTED BY SHEAR...ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW MAY BE
HINDERED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
MODELS AGREE WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
AND...GIVEN THAT OLAF APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED EARLIER TODAY...OUR
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. SHIPS DEPICTS SHEAR OF LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH 48 HOURS...SO WEAKENING WILL BE SLOW THROUGH THEN. SHEAR
ACROSS OLAF IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 72 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS COOLER WATERS...SO THE RATE OF WEAKENING WILL
INCREASE BY DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. OUR FORECAST WEAKENS OLAF TO A
TROPICAL STORM AT DAY FIVE. INTERESTINGLY...GLOBAL MODELS KEEP OLAF
UNREALISTICALLY STRONG...IN EXCESS OF 110 KT...THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE LGEM WEAKENS OLAF MORE RAPIDLY THAN OUR
FORECAST...TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT 96 HOURS.

THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS OLAF WILL REMAIN FAR EAST OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SWELL GENERATED BY OLAF WILL AFFECT THE
ISLANDS INTO THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING SURF THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN BE LARGE...POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING AND
DAMAGING. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU FOR
DETAILS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 11.1N 143.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 11.7N 144.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 12.8N 145.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 14.1N 146.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 15.5N 146.9W 115 KT 135 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 18.3N 147.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 21.0N 146.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 23.6N 145.3W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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#229 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Oct 21, 2015 1:57 am

No deep recurve from the 00z Euro.

Moving west @ 192hrs and then recurves to the NW.
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Re:

#230 Postby AJC3 » Wed Oct 21, 2015 2:44 am

Kingarabian wrote:No deep recurve from the 00z Euro.

Moving west @ 192hrs and then recurves to the NW.


The ECM solution turns Olaf northward along 146W, then tries to recurve it off to the NE. However, Olaf stalls around 25N 137W, then turns back toward the W and NW. Eventually, Olaf enters a second recurve about 10 degrees farther to the north, and at nearly the same LON as the first, this time at about 145W. At H240, it has Olaf near 33N 143W and heading NE, well embedded in the westerlies.

If this solution were to verify, if would necessitate NHC resuming advisories for about a day and a half, before handing them back over to CPHC again. :lol:
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Re: Re:

#231 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Oct 21, 2015 2:59 am

AJC3 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:No deep recurve from the 00z Euro.

Moving west @ 192hrs and then recurves to the NW.


The ECM solution turns Olaf northward along 146W, then tries to recurve it off to the NE. However, Olaf stalls around 25N 137W, then turns back toward the W and NW. Eventually, Olaf enters a second recurve about 10 degrees farther to the north, and at nearly the same LON as the first, this time at about 145W. At H240, it has Olaf near 33N 143W and heading NE, well embedded in the westerlies.

If this solution were to verify, if would necessitate NHC resuming advisories for about a day and a half, before handing them back over to CPHC again. :lol:


Lol that would be something. I've yet to see a hand off back and forth between the agencies regarding a storm.
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Re: Re:

#232 Postby AJC3 » Wed Oct 21, 2015 3:16 am

Kingarabian wrote:
AJC3 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:No deep recurve from the 00z Euro.

Moving west @ 192hrs and then recurves to the NW.


The ECM solution turns Olaf northward along 146W, then tries to recurve it off to the NE. However, Olaf stalls around 25N 137W, then turns back toward the W and NW. Eventually, Olaf enters a second recurve about 10 degrees farther to the north, and at nearly the same LON as the first, this time at about 145W. At H240, it has Olaf near 33N 143W and heading NE, well embedded in the westerlies.

If this solution were to verify, if would necessitate NHC resuming advisories for about a day and a half, before handing them back over to CPHC again. :lol:


Lol that would be something. I've yet to see a hand off back and forth between the agencies regarding a storm.


Hurricane-Typhoon-Hurricane John (1994) did a similar cross over the IDL and back again.

It was officially forecast by NHC-CPHC-JMA-CPHC(2), and actually came within 1.5 degrees (178.6E) of necessitating NHC-CPHC-JMA-CPHC(2)-JMA(2)-CPHC(3) when it did a loop just west of the IDL, several days before it's second crossing of the IDL. :lol:

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Re: Re:

#233 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Oct 21, 2015 4:37 am

AJC3 wrote:
Hurricane-Typhoon-Hurricane John (1994) did a similar cross over the IDL and back again.

It was officially forecast by NHC-CPHC-JMA-CPHC(2), and actually came within 1.5 degrees (178.6E) of necessitating NHC-CPHC-JMA-CPHC(2)-JMA(2)-CPHC(3) when it did a loop just west of the IDL, several days before it's second crossing of the IDL. :lol:


WOW. :eek:

Thanks for the share. I'm going to google and see if I can find some articles about John 1994. I wonder what caused such a bizarre track.
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#234 Postby Alyono » Wed Oct 21, 2015 6:13 am

Hawaii threat appears very small now. Even the few ensembles that were indicating a threat have shifted east
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#235 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Oct 21, 2015 6:45 am

WTPA45 PHFO 210917 CCA
TCDCP5

HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 26...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
1100 PM HST TUE OCT 20 2015

ALTHOUGH OLAF CONTINUES TO PRESENT A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE THIS EVENING...THE OVERALL PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE EYE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOUD-FILLED WHILE
SURROUNDING CONVECTION IS NOT AS INTENSE AS IT ONCE WAS. THE OUTFLOW
PATTERN ALOFT IS STILL FAIRLY SYMMETRIC...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIMITED
OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE OBSERVED SATELLITE TRENDS LED
TO LOWERING DVORAK DATA-T VALUES...WHILE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGED FROM 5.5/102 KT FROM PGTW...TO 6.0/115 KT FROM PHFO AND
SAB...WITH UW-CIMSS SATCON INDICATING AN INTENSITY NEAR 110 KT. A
CONSERVATIVE BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES LEADS TO AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 300/08 KT...WITH OLAF
FINALLY MAKING THE EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE
EVENTUALLY MOVING ON AN INCREASINGLY NORTHWARD VECTOR. A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN NORTH OF OLAF OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS
IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD...WHICH IS
ALLOWING OLAF TO GAIN LATITUDE. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED EAST OF OLAF...
WITH A WEAKER MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF OLAF ASSOCIATED WITH A
HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
IMPART A STEERING MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHWEST...AS PASSING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO
THE NORTH ENSURE THAT THE RIDGE NORTH OF OLAF REMAINS WEAK. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OLAF IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL STEER IT TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST.

THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER THE FIRST 3 TO 4
DAYS OF THE FORECAST...AND DIVERGES SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS OLAF BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THE UPDATED
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS...AND THE RELIABLE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN...BUT RIDES THE LEFT EDGE OF THE NARROW GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS. THE 96 AND 120 HOUR FORECAST
POSITIONS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS...TO BE IN
LINE WITH THE GFEX AND TVCN CONSENSUS...WHICH INDICATE A FASTER TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY OFFICIALLY FORECAST.

LIGHT SHEAR AND SSTS BETWEEN 28C AND 29C OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO LITTLE CHANGE IN OLAF/S INTENSITY.
INCREASING SHEAR AND GRADUALLY LOWERING SSTS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AND MORE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING SSTS THEREAFTER LEADING TO A MORE
RAPID WEAKENING. THE UPDATED FORECAST FOLLOWS TRENDS PRESENTED BY
THE PREVIOUS...AS WELL AS THE SHIPS...LGEM AND IVCN INTENSITY
CONSENSUS...AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR A LOWER THAN EXPECTED INITIAL
INTENSITY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 11.5N 143.8W 115 KT 135 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 12.3N 144.7W 115 KT 135 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 13.5N 145.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 14.7N 146.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 16.0N 146.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 19.1N 147.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 21.5N 145.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 24.0N 143.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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#236 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Oct 21, 2015 6:45 am

Appears to be suffering from mid-level shear.
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#237 Postby Alyono » Wed Oct 21, 2015 8:08 am

doesn't look like mid level shear. Looks like internal changes to me
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#238 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 21, 2015 10:08 am

HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
500 AM HST WED OCT 21 2015

THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF OLAF CONTINUES TO DEGRADE...WITH THE
CLOUD-FILLED EYE SPORADICALLY COMING AND GOING IN CONVENTIONAL
INFRARED IMAGERY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO
LOWER...WITH SUBJECTIVE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES A UNANIMOUS
5.5/102 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS THEREFORE
ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KT...THUS INDICATING THAT OLAF HAS RAPIDLY
WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 300/08 KT...WITH A SMALL
WARM SPOT ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER SOMEWHAT COMPLICATING THE SHORT
TERM MOTION ESTIMATE. OLAF APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING
THE EXPECTED GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
TO ITS NORTH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS. TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE STEERING PATTERN WILL INCREASINGLY FEATURE A MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED EAST OF OLAF...WITH A WEAKER MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF OLAF
EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE
LINE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO IMPART A STEERING MOTION THAT TAKES OLAF
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST...AS PASSING MID-
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO THE NORTH ENSURE THAT THE RIDGE NORTH
OF OLAF REMAINS WEAK. A MORE SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THIS RIDGE WILL
BEGIN ON FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...DUE TO A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS OCCURS OLAF WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL STEER IT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS... AND
LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE SUITE THROUGH
THE FIRST 72 HOURS. ON DAYS 4 AND 5...A GREATER SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE IS SEEN...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSE TO THE TVCN
CONSENSUS.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST TAKES OLAF OVER STEADILY COOLER
SSTS...DIMINISHING FROM 29C TODAY TO 26C BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER. THUS A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IN THE SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MORE
SIGNIFICANT RATE OF WEAKENING ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE IVCN GUIDANCE...BUT REPRESENTS
A BLEND BETWEEN IVCN AND SHIPS ON DAY 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 11.9N 144.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 12.7N 145.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 13.8N 146.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 14.9N 146.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 16.4N 147.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 19.5N 146.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 22.0N 145.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 24.6N 143.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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#239 Postby Alyono » Wed Oct 21, 2015 10:51 am

this thing could start turning at any time... would be nice if this thing could actually make a forecast point for once
Last edited by Alyono on Wed Oct 21, 2015 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#240 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 21, 2015 10:55 am

Looks like Olaf just finished eyewall replacement. The eye is notably larger than before on microwave.

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