EPAC: OLAF - Post-Tropical

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Alyono
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#241 Postby Alyono » Wed Oct 21, 2015 10:58 am

In other words, this will not weaken steadily as CPHC forecast. Did they not look at the microwave?
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#242 Postby Alyono » Wed Oct 21, 2015 3:20 pm

clearly reintensifying now

This appears to have been another very predictable eyewall replacement
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Re:

#243 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Oct 21, 2015 3:22 pm

Alyono wrote:clearly reintensifying now

This appears to have been another very predictable eyewall replacement


There were no signs of an ERC in microwave other than the eye expanding, but visible satellite definitely supported an ERC earlier.
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Re: Re:

#244 Postby Alyono » Wed Oct 21, 2015 3:33 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Alyono wrote:clearly reintensifying now

This appears to have been another very predictable eyewall replacement


There were no signs of an ERC in microwave other than the eye expanding, but visible satellite definitely supported an ERC earlier.


It wasn't clean, but there was at times a partial moat present

I do not expect it to regain its former intensity. However, it could briefly touch cat 4 again
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#245 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Oct 21, 2015 3:46 pm

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Nice looking eye. Imagine if it clears out completely.
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#246 Postby Alyono » Wed Oct 21, 2015 3:58 pm

at least this has gained 2 degrees of latitude the last day. Still a wnw motion, but it should turn. Thinking the turn will occur around 148W
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Re:

#247 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Oct 21, 2015 4:00 pm

Alyono wrote:at least this has gained 2 degrees of latitude the last day. Still a wnw motion, but it should turn. Thinking the turn will occur around 148W


Yes, fortunately.
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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#248 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 21, 2015 5:00 pm

HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
1100 AM HST WED OCT 21 2015

MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT OLAF APPARENTLY UNDERWENT AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT LAST NIGHT. OLAF ONCE AGAIN HAS A WELL-DEFINED EYE ON
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. DVORAK SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
FROM HFO...JTWC AND SAB ALL HAD CURRENT INTENSITIES OF 5.5/102 KT.
THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE WAS 5.5/104.6 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 105 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 315/06 KT WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN RECENT CENTER POSITIONS. OLAF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTH IN 72 HOURS. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTH TOWARD THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STARTING ON
SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...OLAF WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS OUR PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF
THE TRUSTED MODELS.

THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE...SST...ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL FROM NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS MORNING
TO 26 DEGREES 120 HOURS FROM NOW. THE INITIAL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...VWS...WAS RATHER LOW...WITH SHIPS SHOWING 5 KT FROM THE WEST
SOUTHWEST AND UW-CIMSS SHOWING 12 KT FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. SHIPS
SHOWS THE VWS INCREASING STEADILY TO 31 KT SUNDAY NIGHT. ONLY SLOW
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WEAKENING TREND IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AFTER THAT DUE TO STRONGER VWS AND LOWER SST.
THE FORECAST WEAKENING IS SLOWER THAN SHOWN BY SHIPS AND REMAINS
CLOSE TO IVCN GUIDANCE AND OUR PREVIOUS FORECASTS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 12.1N 145.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 12.9N 145.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 14.0N 146.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 15.5N 146.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 17.0N 147.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 20.0N 146.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 22.5N 144.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 25.0N 142.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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#249 Postby supercane » Wed Oct 21, 2015 9:57 pm

WTPA45 PHFO 220250
TCDCP5

HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
500 PM HST WED OCT 21 2015

THE SATELLITE CLOUD PATTERN AROUND OLAF HAS WEAKENED SINCE THIS
MORNING. THE SURROUNDING TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THE EYE HAS COOLED...
BUT SOME OF THESE CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED SINCE THE 21/2330 UTC DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES WERE DONE. THE ESTIMATES FROM HFO...JTWC AND
SAB WERE ALL UNCHANGED SINCE THIS MORNINGS WITH CURRENT INTENSITIES
OF 5.5/102 KT. THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE WAS 5.7/107.2 KT. I
HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 105 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 315/08 KT WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN RECENT CENTER POSITIONS. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE
REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OLAF
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GRADUALLY
TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH IN 72 HOURS. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
STARTING ON SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...OLAF WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS OUR PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE TRUSTED MODELS.

THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE...SST...ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL FROM NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS AFTERNOON
TO 26 DEGREES 120 HOURS FROM NOW. THE INITIAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...
VWS...WAS RATHER LOW WITH SHIPS SHOWING 3 KT FROM THE SOUTHEAST
UW-CIMSS SHOWING 15 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHIPS SHOWS THE VWS
INCREASING STEADILY TO 28 KT SUNDAY NIGHT. SHIPS SHOWS SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN STEADY WEAKENING. ICON
AND IVCN SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING FROM THE START. I HAVE FOLLOWED THE
CONSENSUS MODELS WITH SLOW WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN
FASTER WEAKENING DUE TO STRONGER VWS AND LOWER SST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 12.6N 145.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 13.3N 146.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 14.6N 146.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 15.9N 147.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 17.5N 147.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 20.0N 146.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 22.0N 144.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 25.5N 141.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#250 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:11 am

HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
1100 PM HST WED OCT 21 2015

THE RAGGED EYE OF OLAF CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PHFO AND SAB WERE 5.5/102 KT...WHILE JTWC INDICATED
5.0/90 KT. THE MOST RECENT UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS 5.6/105 KT. AS
A RESULT...WE HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 105 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 315/07 KT. OLAF IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE 24 TO 36 HOUR TIME
PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH FROM DAYS 2 THROUGH 3.
A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH TOWARD
THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LATER THIS WEEKEND. ONCE THIS
OCCURS...OLAF IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS
JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE TVCN AND GFEX CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...BUT TO
THE RIGHT OF THE LATEST HWRF MODEL.

THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE
VICINITY OF OLAF ARE 7 KT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACCORDING TO
SHIPS...AND 12 KT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACCORDING TO UW-CIMSS.
THE LATEST CIRA ANALYSIS OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT /OHC/ ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK OF OLAF SHOWS IT WILL MOVE OVER MODEST VALUES OF
THIS PARAMETER DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE OHC IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARED WITH THE OCEANIC AREAS TO THE EAST AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LARGE NUMBER OF
TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT HAVE TRAVERSED THESE WATERS DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS CAUSING A LINGERING UPWELLING SIGNAL. THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE...SST...ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY COOL FROM NEAR 29C NOW TO AROUND 25C 5 DAYS FROM NOW. THE
LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE IN THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. HOWEVER...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR STARTS TO RAMP UP BY 36 HOURS...WITH
STEADILY INCREASING VALUES THROUGH DAY 5. SHIPS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE
IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY STEADY
WEAKENING. THE LATEST IVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL
WEAKENING DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST. OUR LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS...WHICH MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 13.1N 146.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 14.0N 146.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 15.3N 147.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 16.7N 147.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 18.1N 147.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 20.5N 146.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 22.5N 144.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 25.5N 140.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
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#251 Postby supercane » Thu Oct 22, 2015 4:19 pm

WTPA45 PHFO 221500
TCDCP5

HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
500 AM HST THU OCT 22 2015

THE EYE OF OLAF WAS SURROUNDED BY AN IMPRESSIVE RING OF COLD
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUD TOPS IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO REMAINS ROBUST THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM JTWC AND SAB
WERE 5.0/90 KT...WHILE PHFO WAS 5.5/102 KT. THE MOST RECENT UW-CIMSS
ADT ESTIMATE WAS ALSO 5.0/90 KT. DUE TO THE APPARENT WEAKENING OF
OLAF TONIGHT...WE HAVE LOWERED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 100 KT. NOTE
THAT A 0646Z ASCAT PASS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE INITIAL WIND RADII
FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 320/06 KT. OLAF IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTH DURING THE 24 TO 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN THE NORTHEAST
DURING DAYS 3 AND 4 DUE TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH TOWARD
THE SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEKEND. ONCE THIS OCCURS...OLAF IS FORECAST
TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS FORECAST
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MOST RECENT TVCN AND GFEX CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...
AS WELL AS THE HWRF MODEL.

THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE
VICINITY OF OLAF ARE 5 KT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACCORDING TO
SHIPS...AND 17 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACCORDING TO UW-CIMSS. THE
CIRA ANALYSIS OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT /OHC/ ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK OF OLAF CONTINUES TO SHOW IT WILL MOVE OVER MODEST VALUES OF
THIS PARAMETER DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE OHC
REMAINS SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARED WITH THE OCEANIC AREAS TO THE EAST
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LARGE
NUMBER OF TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT HAVE TRAVERSED THESE WATERS DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS CAUSING A LINGERING UPWELLING SIGNAL. THE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SST...ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL FROM SLIGHTLY ABOVE 28C NOW TO AROUND 25C
5 DAYS FROM NOW. THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE
IN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY INCREASINGLY HOSTILE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
VALUES BEYOND DAY 1...WITH VALUES OF AROUND 30 KT EXPECTED BY DAY
4. SHIPS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING. NOTE THAT SHIPS NOW
DISSIPATES OLAF BY DAY 5...LIKELY DUE TO STRONG SHEAR AND COOLER
SST. THE LATEST IVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING
DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD STARTING IN 24 HOURS...WHICH FOLLOWED
THE MOST RECENT CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND THE SHIPS OUTPUT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 13.5N 146.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 14.3N 146.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 15.7N 146.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 17.4N 146.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 18.8N 146.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 20.7N 145.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 22.5N 142.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 25.0N 139.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

-------------------------------------------------------------------

WTPA45 PHFO 222048
TCDCP5

HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
1100 AM HST THU OCT 22 2015

OLAF CONTINUES TO HAVE A RAGGED BUT EASILY DISCERNIBLE 10-15 NM
WIDE DIAMETER EYE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A RECENT 1657 UTC
SSMIS PASS SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL IS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE.
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 5.3 FROM THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
FROM CIMSS...5.0 FROM PHFO AND 4.5 FROM SAB. HAVE LOWERED THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY SLIGHTLY TO 95 KT...WHICH IS STILL ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF THE ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/6. OLAF CONTINUES TO BE A
WELL-BEHAVED HURRICANE AND THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED.
OLAF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERALLY NORTHWARD DIRECTION OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OR SO THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AFTER 36 HOURS...OLAF WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL START TO IMPART MORE OF AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...A STRONGER
DIGGING TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
OLAF TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST IS MAINLY AN
UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT REFLECTS A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
MOTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IN DEFERENCE TO THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.

GRADUAL WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY AS THE FORECAST TRACK OF OLAF
TAKES THE HURRICANE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND INTO INCREASING WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE UNREALISTICALLY FAST WITH WEAKENING
OLAF...AND IN FACT SHIPS SHOWS OLAF TO BE DISSIPATED BY 120 HOURS.
THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT AGREE AND THEY ALL STILL SHOW A WELL-
DEFINED LOW CENTER AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SIDE WITH THE STRONGER DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND A SLOWER
WEAKENING TREND...WITH THE POSSIBLITY FOR SOME BAROCLINIC
ENHANCEMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 13.8N 146.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 14.8N 146.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 16.3N 146.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 17.8N 146.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 19.0N 146.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 21.0N 144.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 23.5N 141.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 26.0N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
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#252 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 22, 2015 9:09 pm

Trying to make a comeback

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#253 Postby Ntxw » Thu Oct 22, 2015 9:16 pm

:uarrow: Patricia has stolen the spotlight. No less, Olaf has been adding tremendous ACE. I didn't think we'd get another long tracker like he has provided. He will likely exceed Ignacio's 25.4 units. May end up similar to Joaquin's 28 units. Currently sitting at 23 units
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#254 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 22, 2015 9:18 pm

:uarrow: Still an impressive storm!
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#255 Postby supercane » Thu Oct 22, 2015 10:04 pm

WTPA45 PHFO 230259
TCDCP5

HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192015
500 PM HST THU OCT 22 2015

CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SOME AROUND THE RAGGED EYE OF OLAF TODAY...
AND A ROUGHLY 10 NM DIAMETER PUKA IS STILL EVIDENT. ON THE OTHER
HAND...MICROWAVE PASSES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE SHOWN THAT THE EYEWALL
REMAINS OPEN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE. THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE A UNANIMOUS 5.0...WITH THE CIMSS ADT SHOWING 5.6.
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INTENSITY MAY HAVE BEEN A BIT
GENEROUS...THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 95 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY AS A COMPROMISE AMONG THIS DATA.

OLAF IS NOW MOVING DUE NORTH...360 DEGREES...AT ABOUT 8 KT...
INTO A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF OLAF IN ABOUT THREE DAYS
AND A STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING NEAR OLAF IN FIVE DAYS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPART MORE OF A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT IN THE FIRST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND A MINOR ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS AS WELL AS THE RECENT NORTHWARD MOTION. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST AND THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE.

EVEN THOUGH THE CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES SHOW SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
STARTING TO INCREASE OVER THE CYCLONE...THE CORE REMAINS LARGELY
INTACT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT
GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND LOWERING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TAKING A TOLL ON THE CYCLONE ON
FRIDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO INDICATE A GRADUAL
WEAKENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS MUCH SLOWER
THAN THE SHIPS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM IN 4
TO 5 DAYS...AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH KEEP
OLAF AS A DISCRETE ENTITY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. SOME OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT OLAF MAY BE FEELING SOME BAROCLINIC
INFLUENCES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 14.5N 146.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 15.5N 146.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 16.9N 146.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 18.2N 145.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 19.4N 145.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 21.5N 143.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 24.2N 139.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 26.7N 135.8W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
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#256 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 22, 2015 10:16 pm

"Puka" is Hawaiian slang/pidgin for hole if anyone is wondering, lol. The cphc is funny somtimes.
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Ntxw
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#257 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:56 am

No love for Olaf, he's getting some colder cloud tops again

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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2015 Time : 050000 UTC
Lat : 14:41:16 N Lon : 146:14:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 945.9mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +6.2C Cloud Region Temp : -69.7C

Scene Type : EYE
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#258 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 23, 2015 12:59 am

Patricia has dominated the spotlight tonight and rightfully so, but Olaf is making a nice comeback tonight. Colder cloud tops within the eyewall redeveloping. Could make a run at Cat 4 status tomorrow.
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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#259 Postby hurricaneCW » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:00 am

Olaf looks good and it along with Patricia will push this season into #2 spot ACE wise. #1 is not that much further away either after those storms die out.
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#260 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:00 am

Olaf trying to rival her sister Patricia.
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