WPAC: KOPPU - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Tropical Storm

#81 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Oct 14, 2015 9:07 pm

I wonder if this is one of the cases where the GFS overestimates in the intensity forecast with a 900mb cyclone..there is deep convection popping at the moment but it still looks badly sheared.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Tropical Storm

#82 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 14, 2015 9:33 pm

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#83 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 14, 2015 10:08 pm

Well, once the center went back under the convection, it didn't take long for Koppu to start organizing quickly, much like Dujuan before it. Global models are generally good at picking up on favorable conditions, but aren't really capable of picking up on tropical cyclone nuances like the process of building an inner core. However, with Koppu appearing to be building a core now, I'd still side with the more aggressive guidance in terms of intensity. Even if it doesn't bomb out, this could still be a big deal because of rainfall and flooding due to slow movement near/over Luzon, as Alyono already stated.

Image
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Tropical Storm

#84 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 14, 2015 10:13 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (KOPPU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 627 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI
AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY THE STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. TS 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS KOPPU WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS VWS SLOWLY BECOMES MORE IN-PHASE WITH
THE STORM MOTION. IN ADDITION TO THE IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS, SSTS AND OHC ALONG TRACK ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION, LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 24W WILL SLOW AND TURN MORE
NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN LUZON.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT TROUGH TAU 72.
HOWEVER, DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Tropical Storm

#85 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 14, 2015 10:50 pm

Huge flooding likely. +250mm of rain over a large portion of Luzon.

EURO stalls this over Luzon for 3 days while UKMET is 5 days!

Image
Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Tropical Storm

#86 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Oct 15, 2015 1:27 am

Looks like the convection is inching closer to the LLCC
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Tropical Storm

#87 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:03 am

Starting to get that look...

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#88 Postby Alyono » Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:37 am

microwave is showing an eye. I am going with 55 kts for the intensity
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Tropical Storm

#89 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:38 am

It's intensifying alright...

It's got that feathery outflow starting to develop that will help it to ventilate...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Tropical Storm

#90 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 15, 2015 4:48 am

WDPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (KOPPU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 537 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS GOOD CLOUD
BANDING WHICH WRAPS INTO AN OBSCURED LLCC. A 150530Z NPP IMAGE SHOWS
THE DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WHICH GIVES GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT
50 KNOTS, REFLECTIVE OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VWS BEING OFFSET BY EASTERLY
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. TS 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR EXTENSION, WITH THE STR ANCHORED
FAR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS KOPPU WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR EXTENSION AND A BUILDING
EXTENSION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED AS VWS CONTINUES TO BECOME IN-PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION.
THE SYSTEM WILL REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS SST
VALUES WILL PEAK. HOWEVER, PRIOR TO TAU 72, TS KOPPU WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN EASTERN LUZON, WITH THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY DECAYING DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 24W WILL SLOW AND TURN MORE
POLEWARD DUE TO A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONALLY, THE TERRAIN OF LUZON WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY THE SYSTEM
THOUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH TAU 72, THERE IS A GREAT SPREAD WITH REGARD TO
THE SPEED OF THE POLEWARD TURN. AS SUCH, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Tropical Storm

#91 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 15, 2015 6:07 am

TXPQ26 KNES 150943
TCSWNP

A. 24W (KOPPU)

B. 15/0901Z

C. 15.6N

D. 129.6E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/GMI

H. REMARKS...CURVED BANDING WRAPS .8 ON LOG-10 SPIRAL FOR A DT OF
3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. CENTER FIX LOCATION BASED ON ADT. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

15/0306Z 15.6N 130.9E GMI


...VELASCO
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#92 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 15, 2015 9:26 am

First attempt to build a core failed, putting it behind schedule intensity wise. I still think it'll get strong, but it only has about 48 hours left now.

Image
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2856
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Tropical Storm

#93 Postby supercane » Thu Oct 15, 2015 9:33 am

No storm signals yet posted by PAGASA for Lando (aka Koppu). 12Z updates from JMA and 15Z from JTWC both have Koppu at 60kt:

WTPQ50 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1524 KOPPU (1524)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 15.4N 129.0E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 16.1N 125.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 171200UTC 16.4N 122.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 181200UTC 16.4N 120.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 191200UTC 17.0N 120.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
120HF 201200UTC 17.9N 120.2E 260NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY =

WTPN51 PGTW 151500
WARNING ATCG MIL 24W NWP 151015132935
2015101512 24W KOPPU 011 02 275 13 SATL 060
T000 158N 1289E 060 R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 160N 1270E 075 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 162N 1255E 085 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 125 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 164N 1242E 095 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 125 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 165N 1230E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 120 SE QD 125 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 168N 1215E 075
T096 180N 1214E 065
T120 194N 1218E 055
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2856
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#94 Postby supercane » Thu Oct 15, 2015 9:49 am

WDPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (KOPPU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 463 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO AN OBSCURED LLCC. THE
151235Z METOP-A SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION, SPECIFICALLY
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM AND INDICATIONS OF TIGHT
LOW LEVEL WRAPPING. THE POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGREY. ADDITIONALLY, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
RAISED TO 60 KNOTS BASED ON INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH 20
KNOTS OF IN-PHASE VWS BEING OFFSET BY EASTERLY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. TS
24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
STR EXTENSION, WITH THE STR ANCHORED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS KOPPU WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR EXTENSION AND A BUILDING
RIDGE EXTENSION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED AS VWS CONTINUES TO BECOME IN-PHASE WITH THE STORM
MOTION IN ADDITION TO INCREASING SSTS ALONG THE SYSTEMS TRACK.
EXPECT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 48. BEYOND THAT, THE
SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND BEGIN DECAYING IN CENTRAL LUZON.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 24W WILL SLOW AND TURN POLEWARD
DUE TO A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, THE
TERRAIN OF LUZON WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY THE SYSTEM THOUGH TAU 96 AND
TS KOPPU RE-EMERGING IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH TAU 48, HOWEVER THERE IS A GREAT
SPREAD WITH REGARD TO THE SPEED OF THE POLEWARD TURN. AS SUCH, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO
THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS./=

WTPH21 RPMM 151200
TTT STORM WARNING 06
STS {KOPPU} (1524) TIME 151200 UTC
00 15.6N 129.0E 982HPA 29M/S
P06HR W AT 04M/S
P+24 16.0N 125.4E
P+48 16.7N 122.7E
P+72 17.7N 121.1E
P+96 19.4N 120.4E
P+120 21.2N 120.3E=
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#95 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 15, 2015 9:50 am

JMA is way more aggressive than JTWC right now wrt intensity. They're both currently at 100 kt at 12Z on the 17th, but JMA's 100 kt equates to a T6.5 on their Dvorak table, which would equate to 125 kt using 1 minute sustained winds.
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Tropical Storm

#96 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Oct 15, 2015 9:57 am

I'm thinking if this can only manage to strengthen at a climatological rate then it may fall quite short to the major Cat3 forecast of JTWC. Just a little trivia, the last major Cat3+ system to hit Northern Luzon was Typhoon Utor in 2013.


EDIT: My bad, it was actually Noul last May. :lol: Thanks for the correction.
Last edited by dexterlabio on Thu Oct 15, 2015 10:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#97 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 15, 2015 10:03 am

What about Noul from this past May?

Looks like it shall try to build a core once again.

Image
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re:

#98 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Oct 15, 2015 10:08 am

My bad Noul was just a few months ago and I already forgot. :lol:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

#99 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Oct 15, 2015 10:11 am

Jeez it's like the storms in WPAC are on steroids..just look at the amount of convection these two are spewing. :eek:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

NotoSans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1366
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

#100 Postby NotoSans » Thu Oct 15, 2015 10:50 am

JMA brings it to TY at 15Z. Their forecast is quite aggressive - 25-kt RI in the upcoming 24 hours.

WTPQ20 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1524 KOPPU (1524) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 15.3N 128.4E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 161500UTC 16.1N 125.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 171200UTC 16.4N 122.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 181200UTC 16.4N 120.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
0 likes   


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests