WPAC: KOPPU - Post-Tropical

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supercane
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#101 Postby supercane » Thu Oct 15, 2015 10:51 am

1900hurricane wrote:JMA is way more aggressive than JTWC right now wrt intensity. They're both currently at 100 kt at 12Z on the 17th, but JMA's 100 kt equates to a T6.5 on their Dvorak table, which would equate to 125 kt using 1 minute sustained winds.


Both are within the realm of possibility, though for JMA's forecast to verify the system would need to start rapidly intensifying soon and continue it for 48hr.

dexterlabio wrote:I'm thinking if this can only manage to strengthen at a climatological rate then it may fall quite short to the major Cat3 forecast of JTWC.


Climatologic intensification rates are about 1 T number a day. Based on the current SAB and JTWC classifications of 3.5, in 48hr it would be at 5.5 ~ 100kt.
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#102 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 15, 2015 11:19 am

JMA's forecast hinges on the current core-building process. If it's successful, they're going to look real good. If this one fails too, it'll fall short of their forecast. Based on the last two hour trend on IR, Koppu is definitely doing work right now, but it remains to be seen if it can finish. The 1436Z GPM pass I posted above has the center at about 15.75*N, and I don't think the center has appreciably gained latitude since then. The coldest cloudtops are currently bulldozing north around the backside of the center, which is a healthy sign for the storm. The northern part of the mega-cold sub -90*C overshoot might actually be pretty close to the center right now.

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#103 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 15, 2015 1:15 pm

Looks like Koppu is running slower than the forecast points in the near term.

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#104 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 15, 2015 2:08 pm

Oh boy... Image Image Image

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#105 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 15, 2015 2:14 pm

VIIRS nighttime visible got Koppu a couple of hours ago. Check out the gravity waves in the northern part of the CDO.

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#106 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 15, 2015 2:22 pm

JMA actually got even more aggressive with their intensity forecast, going up to 100 kt within 24 hours. Based on what is going on right now, I wouldn't go against them.

TY 1524 (KOPPU)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 15 October 2015

<Analyses at 15/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°30'(15.5°)
E127°50'(127.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SW390km(210NM)
NE280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 16/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°40'(15.7°)
E126°10'(126.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 16/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°55'(15.9°)
E124°35'(124.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 17/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°00'(16.0°)
E122°00'(122.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 18/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°35'(16.6°)
E121°10'(121.2°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Typhoon

#107 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:18 pm

Structure continues to improve.

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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Typhoon

#108 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:24 pm

JTWC upgrades to Typhoon at 70kts.

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#109 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 15, 2015 5:46 pm

Looks like it's trying to develop dual outflow channels.

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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Typhoon

#110 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Oct 15, 2015 7:29 pm

I know I've been negative on this storm but it still doesn't look that symmetric and organized to my untrained eyes. Though I am just looking at the peripherals and not at what's going on deeper into the cold cloud cover..
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Typhoon

#111 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Oct 15, 2015 8:03 pm

Still looks sheared IMO, with the LLCC located just north of the CCC.
There's still that possibility that Koppu can bomb out into something big if it manage to align itself.

The worst thing about this system is its rainfall. If JTWC's forecast track holds true, it could easily match Parma's total rain accumulation in 2009.
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Typhoon

#112 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 15, 2015 8:22 pm

mrbagyo wrote:Still looks sheared IMO, with the LLCC located just north of the CCC.
There's still that possibility that Koppu can bomb out into something big if it manage to align itself.

The worst thing about this system is its rainfall. If JTWC's forecast track holds true, it could easily match Parma's total rain accumulation in 2009.


Do you have the data of the rainfall that Parma brought? Agree that the biggest threat will be the copious amounts of rain this slow moving system will dump.
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#113 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 15, 2015 8:30 pm

The center looks very near the overshoot to me. If anything, it's a little to the southeast. Either way, Koppu is aligned vertically, and that overshoot is a legit hot tower.

Himawari-8 Rapid Scan of Koppu

Looking at microwave, it might be a pinhole candidate (although we might not be able to tell until the sun goes down).

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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Typhoon

#114 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 15, 2015 9:30 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 OCT 2015 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 15:32:13 N Lon : 126:56:41 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 981.6mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.0 4.0

Center Temp : -81.9C Cloud Region Temp : -83.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 123km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.6 degrees
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Typhoon

#115 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 15, 2015 9:33 pm

Yeah conditions will become more favorable but i find it hard to believe that it will rapidly intensify before landfall like what the models are hinting given it's current but improving structure.

Image

The Philippine sea is the number 1 spot globally for these rapidly intensifying monsters...

Let's see what happens...
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Typhoon

#116 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 15, 2015 10:21 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (KOPPU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES
TO SHOW DEEPENED CONVECTIVE BANDING OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND
CORRESPONDING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 24W REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL
OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT OF THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TY 24W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR EXTENSION, WITH
THE STR ANCHORED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, DUE TO SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG
AVAILABLE TRACKERS, THERE IS A CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS. SEE PARAGRAPH 3.C. FOR DETAILS.
B. TY KOPPU WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR EXTENSION. UPPER-LEVEL
AND ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE, LEADING TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 36. BEYOND THAT, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL
AND BEGIN DECAYING OVER LUZON.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 24W WILL SLOW AND TURN POLEWARD DUE TO A
SLIGHT BREAK IN THE STR. ADDITIONALLY, THE TERRAIN OF LUZON WILL
CONTINUE TO DECAY THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT RE-EMERGES INTO THE LUZON STRAIT. MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AFTER TAU 48. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
MOTION AND DISPARITY AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS,
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Typhoon

#117 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 15, 2015 11:04 pm

euro6208 wrote:Yeah conditions will become more favorable but i find it hard to believe that it will rapidly intensify before landfall like what the models are hinting given it's current but improving structure.


Based on the structure, I'd be very surprised if this didn't reach Cat 5.
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#118 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 15, 2015 11:35 pm

SAB has this at T3.5/T4.0, but with a curbed band pattern. Given the tick CDO, thi slooks around T5.0 from a CDO pattern. This is likely 85 or 90 knots IMO.
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Typhoon

#119 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 15, 2015 11:40 pm

Typhoon Hunter James Reynolds will intercept this in Luzon.
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#120 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 16, 2015 3:00 am

i'll go with 80 kts for 9Z
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