WPAC: KOPPU - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Typhoon

#181 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Oct 18, 2015 5:58 am

Disparity betweem the asian weather agencies and JTWC... JMA, among others, has the center still well inland and stationary while the JTWC latest fix has the center almost off the coast of western Luzon. The latest satellite images to me support the JTWC position. I don't know what "center" the other agencies are looking at..

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/?name=KOPPU
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#182 Postby NotoSans » Sun Oct 18, 2015 6:02 am

Satellite imagery shows the ULCC but not the LLCC. Tropical cyclones may become less vertically aligned due to land interaction, especially when they are over mountainous terrains. The other agencies may be following the LLCC based on available surface observations.
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Re:

#183 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Oct 18, 2015 6:08 am

NotoSans wrote:Satellite imagery shows the ULCC but not the LLCC. Tropical cyclones may become less vertically aligned due to land interaction, especially when they are over mountainous terrains. The other agencies may be following the LLCC based on available surface observations.



Nice point. More than anyone, the most accurate estimate of exact location should be from the field itself.
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Typhoon

#184 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 18, 2015 8:35 am

WTPQ50 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1524 KOPPU (1524)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 16.6N 121.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 17.4N 121.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 201200UTC 18.0N 121.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 211200UTC 19.0N 121.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 221200UTC 20.9N 121.6E 240NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
120HF 231200UTC 23.1N 121.2E 300NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT =

WTPQ30 RJTD 180600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 1524 KOPPU (1524)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 180600 UTC IS FAIR.
TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY LANDED AND WILL CONTINUOUSLY STAY ON LAND
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

TPPN10 PGTW 181216

A. TYPHOON 24W (KOPPU)
B. 18/1130Z
C. 17.56N
D. 119.52E
E. THREE/HIMA-8
F. T5.5/6.5/W1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. MET AND PT
YIELD A 5.5. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
18/0632Z 16.23N 120.40E SSMI
18/0747Z 16.22N 120.27E SSMS

BERMEA
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Typhoon

#185 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 18, 2015 9:06 am

News from the areas affected is not so good as there are people missing.

http://www.weather.com/storms/typhoon/n ... o_20151018
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Typhoon

#186 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 18, 2015 11:36 am

WTPN51 PGTW 181500
WARNING ATCG MIL 24W NWP 151018133109
2015101812 24W KOPPU 023 02 310 05 SATL 060
T000 165N 1201E 080 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 035 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 145 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 169N 1198E 070 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 174N 1198E 065 R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 120 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 178N 1201E 065 R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 182N 1207E 060
T072 187N 1213E 050 R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 203N 1208E 050
T120 222N 1195E 060
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR 023
<rest omitted>

WDPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (KOPPU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM THAT APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED BACK
OVER WATER; HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED BASED ON THE
CONTINUED DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD SYSTEM STRUCTURE DUE TO THE
LAND INTERACTION OVER LUZON. THE TYPHOON IS NOW ENCOUNTERING 20 TO
25 KNOT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS BEING PARTLY
OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. TY 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 24W WILL TRACK SLIGHTLY POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BEFORE A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, DRIVING
IT EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. TY KOPPU WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF LUZON. NEAR
TAU 72, TY KOPPU WILL RE-EMERGE OVER WATER IN THE LUZON STRAIT AT
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY KOPPU WILL TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO A BUILDING STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TYPHOON
WILL BEGIN TO RE-INTENSIFY AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS LOW VWS, GOOD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WIDE SPREAD AND A BIFURCATION DUE TO THEIR DEPICTION OF THE BUILDING
STR WITH GFS, COAMPS-TC, AND HWRF TRACKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD
TOWARDS HONG KONG AND THE REMAINING BULK OF GUIDANCE TRACKING THE
SYSTEM CLOSER TO TAIWAN. DUE TO THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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#187 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 18, 2015 2:18 pm

WTPQ50 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1524 KOPPU (1524)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 16.7N 121.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 17.5N 121.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 201800UTC 18.3N 121.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 211800UTC 19.2N 121.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 221800UTC 21.0N 121.5E 240NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
120HF 231800UTC 23.4N 121.4E 300NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT =
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Typhoon

#188 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 18, 2015 3:13 pm

Up to 90kts?

Image
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Typhoon

#189 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 18, 2015 3:45 pm

cycloneye wrote:Up to 90kts?


Agreed that increasing the MSW is a strange choice. Dvorak classifications from JTWC at 18Z were T4.0/5.0/W2.0/24HRS and from SSD at 15Z were T4.0/4.5, so hard to believe reasoning that "THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM REPORTING AGENCIES," especially in light of JMA having this as a borderline typhoon.CIMSS ADT at T4.5/77kt.

WDPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (KOPPU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
(EIR) IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED AS THE
MAIN CONVECTION HAS SHEARED WESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT HAS BECOME OBSCURED AND ILL-DEFINED. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND ON COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY
LOOPS FROM THE PHILIPPINES WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
NOW IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS BEING PARTLY OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW.
LAND INTERACTION DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LUZON CONTINUES TO RETARD
THE SYSTEM FROM CONSOLIDATING, HOWEVER. TY 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 24W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH NUDGES IT EASTWARD BACK
INTO LUZON AT THE NORTHWESTERN POINT NEAR LAOAG, ALBEIT MOMENTARILY.
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, TY 24W WILL EXIT INTO THE LUZON STRAIT,
DEGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY KOPPU WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS
A BUILDING STR TO THE NORTHEAST ASSUMES STEERING. THE TYPHOON WILL
RE-INTENSIFY AS LOW VWS, GOOD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS PREVAIL. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WIDE SPREAD AND A BIFURCATION
LEADING TO AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH
IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Typhoon

#190 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 18, 2015 4:15 pm

Interesting it's going to make a second landfall...
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Typhoon

#191 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 18, 2015 7:58 pm

WTPQ50 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1524 KOPPU (1524) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 17.1N 119.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 18.0N 120.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 210000UTC 18.6N 121.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 220000UTC 19.8N 122.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 230000UTC 21.1N 122.8E 240NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
120HF 240000UTC 23.6N 122.9E 300NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT =
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#192 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 18, 2015 8:58 pm

JTWC 03Z in, drops winds to 75kt, but insists on long term past 48hr.

WTPN51 PGTW 190300
WARNING ATCG MIL 24W NWP 151019010744
2015101900 24W KOPPU 025 02 025 04 SATL 020
T000 174N 1203E 075 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 178N 1205E 065
T024 182N 1209E 060
T036 185N 1213E 050
T048 189N 1219E 055
T072 200N 1224E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 085 NW QD
T096 218N 1223E 065 R034 000 NE QD 005 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 244N 1223E 070 R034 000 NE QD 005 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR 025

WDPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (KOPPU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED
DISORGANIZED AS THE MAIN CONVECTION IS SHEARED WESTWARD OF A RAGGED
AND PARTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGES AND IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
75 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) THAT IS PARTLY OFFSET BY STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW. LAND INTERACTION
DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LUZON IS ALSO INHIBITING THE SYSTEM FROM
CONSOLIDATING. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
AN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 24W WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTH ASSUMES STEERING AND NUDGES THE SYSTEM BACK INTO LAND AT THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF LUZON, ALBEIT MOMENTARILY. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36,
TY 24W WILL EXIT INTO THE LUZON STRAIT, DEGRADED TO A 50-KNOT
TROPICAL STORM.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY KOPPU WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS A
BUILDING STR TO THE NORTHEAST ASSUMES STEERING. THE TYPHOON WILL
RE-INTENSIFY AS LOW VWS, GOOD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS PREVAIL REACHING
70 KNOTS BY THE END OF FORECAST JUST EAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODEL ENVELOPE
LEADING TO AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH
IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
Last edited by supercane on Sun Oct 18, 2015 9:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#193 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 18, 2015 9:00 pm

JMA prognostic reasoning for today in:

WTPQ30 RJTD 190000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR STS 1524 KOPPU (1524)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 190000 UTC IS FAIR.
STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
STS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
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#194 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 18, 2015 9:29 pm

That's quite a bit of upstream convection aimed at western Luzon. Flood threat is very far from over.

Image
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Severe Tropical Storm

#195 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 19, 2015 5:15 am

Image

Next stops:

The Batanes group of islands, Taiwan, and the southern Ryukyu's...

WDPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (KOPPU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM NORTH OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
RAGGED AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE WEST DUE TO PERSISTENT 10 TO 20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE LLCC
SEEN IN THE MSI LOOP WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DECREASING DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED VWS BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY A
STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION, LAND INTERACTION CONTINUES
TO IMPACT THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 24W WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTH ASSUMES STEERING AND NUDGES THE SYSTEM BACK INTO LAND OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF LUZON. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24, TY 24W WILL RE-
EMERGE OVER THE LUZON STRAIT. AS THE TYPHOON TRACKS OVER LAND IT
WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO RECONSOLIDATE CAUSING IT TO CONTINUE
THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND. AS TY KOPPU MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM
LUZON, IT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ONCE UNDER MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. BEYOND TAU 48, TY 24W WILL TURN POLEWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING STR TO THE EAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY KOPPU WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING STR. THE TYPHOON WILL
SLOWLY INTENSIFY DUE AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM SSTS. AS THE TYPHOON
NEARS TAIWAN, THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN
A SECOND WEAKENING PHASE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE TO FIND A SOLUTION TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
SHOWING A WIDE SPREAD OF POSSIBILITIES. IN ADDITION, THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING STR EAST OF TAIWAN IS DEPENDENT ON TY 25W
ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO THE COMPLICATED STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND THE UNRELIABILITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Severe Tropical Storm

#196 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 19, 2015 6:31 am

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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Severe Tropical Storm

#197 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 19, 2015 7:02 am

12Z NAVGEM has Koppu hitting southern Guangdong province east of Hong Kong as a strong TS.

CMC closer to Hong Kong but even weaker.
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Severe Tropical Storm

#198 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 19, 2015 7:08 am

EURO is further east, passes Taiwan and hits the entire Ryukyu Islands as a TD/TS... :roll:
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Severe Tropical Storm

#199 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 19, 2015 7:25 am

Likewise, GFS same on track but stronger. It has a very small midget looking typhoon hitting Yaeyama, passes it north of Miyako and hits Okinawa.
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#200 Postby supercane » Mon Oct 19, 2015 9:00 am

WTPQ50 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1524 KOPPU (1524)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 18.3N 119.7E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 201200UTC 19.0N 120.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 211200UTC 19.4N 121.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 221200UTC 19.9N 121.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 231200UTC 22.3N 121.6E 240NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
120HF 241200UTC 24.3N 122.9E 300NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT =
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