WPAC: KOPPU - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 91W

#21 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 12, 2015 7:54 am

TXPQ26 KNES 120951
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 12/0832Z

C. 14.4N

D. 148.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT OF 1.0 IS BASED ON GT 0.2 BANDING. MET IS 1.0 AND PT
IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 91W

#22 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 12, 2015 8:02 am

Image

Deep convection continues to be sheared to the west of the LLC that's located east of Guam due to shear
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#23 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 12, 2015 11:08 am

Fairly stark contrast between the American and European guidance in the extended range, with the ECMWF runs keeping 91W stewing in prime Philippine Sea real estate for several days longer than the GFS has been. Considering recent events, it's hard not lean towards the European solution at this point, but the split in solutions doesn't occur for another 5-7 days, so there is still plenty of time to work towards a more unified solution. Either way, I would not at all be surprised to see something very intense develop from 91W. The Hadley Cell is very deep and the tropopause is very cold in this part of the world right now (more so than usual) and issues with subsidence over the Philippine Sea appear to be...subsiding (insert boos for bad pun here).
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#24 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 12, 2015 11:16 am

In the meantime though, the circulation is still elongated roughly along an east-west axis. Shear pushing the convection to the west of the low level circulation is probably contributing to this issue in the near term, but will likely let up in the Philippine Sea.

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 91W

#25 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 12, 2015 12:48 pm

12z GFS is more closer to Luzon and as a SuperTyphoon.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 91W

#26 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 12, 2015 2:35 pm

JMA upgrades to TD.

TD
Issued at 19:30 UTC, 12 October 2015


<Analyses at 12/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N15°20'(15.3°)
E145°50'(145.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 13/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°35'(15.6°)
E141°05'(141.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 91W

#27 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 12, 2015 4:01 pm

TXPQ26 KNES 121507
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 12/1432Z

C. 14.8N

D. 147.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON .2+ WH BAND. PT=1.5. MET=1.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 91W

#28 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 12, 2015 4:02 pm

Still remains HIGH

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST AREA 91W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 149.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 147.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 121112Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS THE CIRCULATION REMAINS
HIGHLY ELONGATED WITH 20 KNOT CORE WINDS AND 20 TO 25 KNOT
PERIPHERAL FLOW PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND WEST UNDERNEATH THE DEEP
CONVECTION. MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS HAMPERING CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, HOWEVER THE
EFFECTS OF VWS IS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
NEAR 160E. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE
QUICKLY WHILE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOWER VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 120800) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 91W

#29 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 12, 2015 4:13 pm

Oh no not again...

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 91W

#30 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 12, 2015 4:22 pm

12Z GFS bottoms this to 871 mb. :eek:

Looks like a big hit coming up for Okinawa.
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#31 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 12, 2015 6:43 pm

The tropopause is the highest and coldest in the entire world over the Philippine Sea right now, which is supported both by upper air analysis and 91W's extremely cold cloudtops, which are regularly chilling below -90*C in the overshoots, even in daylight. Even though the GFS is still pulling 91W out of the Philippine Sea before the ECMWF and UKMET, it is trending longer with time spent there, now letting it sit and stew for 5-6 days. The future for 91W looks bright to me, and I'm buying super typhoon more and more.

Image

Image
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#32 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 12, 2015 7:57 pm

Barring inner core issues, this should become a potent typhoon. The GFS forecasts an insane poleward outflow channel, and also forecasts low shear as the depression moves due west.
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#33 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 12, 2015 8:19 pm

JTWC now has TD 24W.
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Re: WPAC: 24W - Tropical Depression

#34 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 12, 2015 8:21 pm

JTWC first warning peaks at 115kts.

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120751ZOCT2015//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 15.6N 143.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 143.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 16.1N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.9N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.9N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 16.0N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.3N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.7N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.4N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 142.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z
IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.
THIS CANCELS AND SUPRSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 120800).//
NNNN
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#35 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 12, 2015 8:30 pm

I'd've gone with 30 kt considering a recent ASCAT pass.

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Re: WPAC: 24W - Tropical Depression

#36 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 12, 2015 8:57 pm

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTYFOUR)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
155 NM NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 22
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEEPENED AS FORMATIVE BANDS,
ALBEIT STILL FRAGMENTED, WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE. THE SAME ANIMATION INDICATES THE MAIN BULK OF THE
CONVECTION IS SHEARED WESTWARD OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
GUAM AND SAIPAN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 20-KNOT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS EASILY OFFSET BY A NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 24W WILL TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS IT TRAVERSES THE WARM PHILIPPINE
SEA (WITH SSTS 29-31 CELSIUS), THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX. THIS
COUPLED WITH A CONTINUED VIGOROUS OUTFLOW WILL PROMOTE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHERN LUZON,
PHILIPPINES. ENHANCED OUTFLOW, IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WILL PROMOTE A RAPID INTENSIFICATION - REACHING
115 KNOTS, POSSIBLY STRONGER, BY END OF FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME BIFURCATION TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INITIAL POSITION AND STORM MOTION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE TO
THE INITIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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#37 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 12, 2015 9:03 pm

Given the low bias and large area of 30 knots winds in the ASCAT, I'd go 35 knots.

JTWC is busy ignoring data. Doing what they do best.
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#38 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Oct 13, 2015 3:55 am

Oh my, 125 kts over Luzon :eek:

Image
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Re: WPAC: 24W - Tropical Depression

#39 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Oct 13, 2015 3:56 am

spiral wrote:Image
JT'S is taking the wise approach some models are stalling and re-curving atm while the ukmet @ this point is barreling west over north PI.


^I know UKMET is reliable on non-tropical systems but I'm not sure in this case. More often it shows where the cyclone wouldn't go. :lol: However Euro and GFS were showing the same scenario days ago until both of them trended towards a recurve. I'll be leaning on the Euro solution at the moment.
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Re: WPAC: 24W - Tropical Depression

#40 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 13, 2015 4:48 am

Watch out P.I.

WDPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTYFOUR)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
303 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
29 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEPENING CONVECTION SHEARED JUST
WEST OF A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO
PERSISTENT 10 TO 20 KNOT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A
130029Z ASCAT BULLSEYE SHOWED A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC WITH 25 TO
30 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON INCREASING DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE JUST NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM, PROVIDING STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND THE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE NEAR 30 CELSIUS. TD
24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO
THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL MARGINALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED. BEYOND
TAU 48, VWS WILL DROP BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SSTS WILL INCREASE ABOVE 30
CELSIUS, SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PHILIPPINES.

C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 24W WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK
AS THE STR REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE RI THROUGH TAU 96 DUE TO THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. AFTERWARDS THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR
POSSIBLY WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN ON LUZON. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL TRACK; HOWEVER, THERE IS A BIFURCATION AT THE VERY END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM REACHES LUZON. DUE TO THIS
BIFURCATION AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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