WPAC: KOPPU - Post-Tropical

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#201 Postby supercane » Mon Oct 19, 2015 9:10 am

JTWC finally drops this to a TS at 15Z:
WTPN51 PGTW 191500
WARNING ATCG MIL 24W NWP 151019130127
2015101912 24W KOPPU 027 02 015 04 SATL 060
T000 183N 1205E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 186N 1209E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 189N 1215E 050 R034 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 193N 1221E 045 R034 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 197N 1225E 045 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 207N 1227E 045 R034 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 224N 1227E 050
T120 242N 1230E 055
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR 027
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR 027
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 24W
<snip>
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 120.6E.
<rest omitted>

WDPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR
27//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (KOPPU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 224 NM
NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UNORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191021Z PARTIAL
CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM AND
PROVIDES SUPPORT THAT THE LLCC IS ALONG THE LUZON COAST. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED DUE TO DECREASING DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE IN ALL
IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION, LAND INTERACTION CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC. TS KOPPU IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 24W WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, SKIRTING THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF LUZON, OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH ASSUMES STEERING. NEAR TAU
24, TS 24W WILL MOVE OVER THE LUZON STRAIT. AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS
NEAR LAND THE LLCC WILL STRUGGLE TO RECONSOLIDATE CAUSING IT TO
CONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND. AS TS KOPPU MOVES FURTHER AWAY
FROM LUZON, IT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN UNDER MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. BEYOND TAU 48, TS 24W WILL TURN POLEWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING STR TO THE EAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS KOPPU WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING STR. THE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM SSTS WITH GOOD DIVERGENT
OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO FIND A
SOLUTION TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT; SHOWING A WIDE SPREAD
OF POSSIBILITIES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A BULK OF GUIDANCE NOW IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT TRACK POSITIONING. THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING STR EAST OF TAIWAN IS STILL DEPENDENT
ON TY 25W ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND THE CONTINUED SPREAD OF MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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#202 Postby NotoSans » Mon Oct 19, 2015 10:33 am

ASCAT shows the LLCC is near 17.5N 120E. Winds are around 45 kt.
Image
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#203 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:10 am

Guidance is starting to suggest Koppu could linger around the Ryukyus for a bit once finally moving away from Luzon. Koppu should be real torn up from spending so much time over or near Luzon, but it'll be interesting to see if any redevelopment can occur.
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#204 Postby supercane » Mon Oct 19, 2015 4:31 pm

WTPQ50 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1524 KOPPU (1524) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 18.8N 119.8E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 19.3N 120.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 211800UTC 19.7N 121.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 221800UTC 20.5N 121.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 231800UTC 22.9N 121.9E 240NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
120HF 241800UTC 25.3N 124.3E 300NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT =

WTPN51 PGTW 192100
WARNING ATCG MIL 24W NWP 151019210756
2015101918 24W KOPPU 028 02 360 04 SATL 060
T000 186N 1201E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 191N 1206E 050 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 193N 1212E 050 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 196N 1217E 045 R034 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD
T048 201N 1222E 045 R034 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD
T072 212N 1226E 045 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD
T096 231N 1230E 050 R034 000 NE QD 005 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 247N 1236E 055 R034 000 NE QD 005 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR 028

WDPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR
28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (KOPPU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY UNORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DISPLACED
TO THE WEST OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH MAY
ACTUALLY BE A MID-LEVEL FEATURE. A 191729Z NPP IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC, THE POSITION OF WHICH IS
LAID WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 191834Z N-19 89 GHZ
IMAGE. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON OVERALL
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND SOME OBSERVATIONS OFF THE COAST OF
LUZON. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 20
KNOTS OF EASTERLY VWS BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY DUAL CHANNEL
OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION, LAND INTERACTION CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC. TS KOPPU IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF A NER SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND AN INDUCED RIDGE BETWEEN TY
25W AND TS 24W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. OF NOTE, THE PREVIOUS 3 BEST TRACK
POSITIONS HAVE BEEN MOVED SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER FROM THE LUZON
COASTLINE DUE TO THE DIFFICULTY IN THE POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM
WHEN AS THE LLCC MAY BE MID-LEVEL AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED BACK OVER
WATER.
B. TS 24W WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, NORTH OF LUZON
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE NER IS THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM.
DUE TO CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASED VWS, THE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY DECEASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 72. BEYOND TAU 36, THE NER
WILL TRACK TO THE WEST, PROMOTING THE INDUCED RIDGE TO BECOME THE
MAIN STEERING MECHANISM, FORCING A POLEWARD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS KOPPU WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING STR. THE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM SSTS WITH GOOD DIVERGENT
OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD BEYOND TAU 24 WITH
SOME TRACKERS FOLLOWING THE VORTEX TO THE WEST TOWARDS SOUTHERN
CHINA. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF TRACKERS HAVE THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO
THE EAST AND POLEWARD, SPREADING FROM THE EASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN TO
EAST OF THE RYUKYU ISLAND CHAIN. DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND THE CONTINUED SPREAD OF MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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#205 Postby supercane » Mon Oct 19, 2015 10:44 pm

WTPQ50 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1524 KOPPU (1524)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 19.0N 120.1E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 19.5N 120.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 220000UTC 20.1N 121.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 230000UTC 20.8N 121.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 240000UTC 23.1N 122.1E 240NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
120HF 250000UTC 25.4N 124.6E 300NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT =

WTPQ30 RJTD 200000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 1524 KOPPU (1524)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 200000 UTC IS FAIR.
TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
TS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

WTPN51 PGTW 200300
WARNING ATCG MIL 24W NWP 151020023115
2015102000 24W KOPPU 029 02 010 05 SATL 060
T000 191N 1202E 050 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 194N 1208E 045 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 196N 1215E 045 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 198N 1221E 040 R034 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD
T048 203N 1223E 040 R034 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD
T072 217N 1225E 040 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD
T096 238N 1236E 040 R034 000 NE QD 005 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 250N 1247E 035 R034 000 NE QD 005 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR 029
<snip>
200300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 120.4E.
<rest omitted>

WDPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR
29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (KOPPU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A DISORGANIZED
SYSTEM THAT CONTINUES TO HUG THE LUZON COAST, WITH THE BULK OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RAGGED LLCC. A PREVIOUS
192008Z SSMIS IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH LIMITED BANDING. DUE TO THE LOOSE
STRUCTURE OF THE LLCC, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DROPPED TO 50 KNOTS TO REFLECT
THE DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. TS 24W REMAINS IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH ALMOST OFFSETS
THE 20+ KNOTS OF VWS. TS KOPPU IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF A NER SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND AN INDUCED RIDGE BETWEEN TY 25W AND
TS 24W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 24W WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, NORTH OF LUZON
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE NER IS THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM.
DUE TO CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASED VWS, THE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 36, THE NER
WILL TRACK TO THE WEST, PROMOTING THE INDUCED RIDGE TO BECOME THE
MAIN STEERING MECHANISM, FORCING A POLEWARD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS
THOUGH TAU 72 AS THE SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE INCREASED OUTFLOW WILL BE
OFFSET BY INCREASED VWS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS KOPPU WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING STR. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS ADDITIONAL VWS BETWEEN
THE HIGHLY ZONALLY WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND THE STR TO THE EAST.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE SO BE FAIRLY WIDELY SPREAD TRACKING
FROM THE EASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN TO EAST OF THE RYUKYU ISLAND CHAIN.
DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THE CONTINUED SPREAD OF
MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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#206 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:45 am

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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Tropical Storm

#207 Postby supercane » Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:19 am

Just barely a TS now.
WTPQ50 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1524 KOPPU (1524)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 19.1N 120.2E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 210600UTC 19.6N 121.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 220600UTC 20.4N 121.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 230600UTC 21.1N 121.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 240600UTC 23.1N 122.2E 240NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
120HF 250600UTC 25.4N 124.8E 300NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT =
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#208 Postby supercane » Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:47 pm

WTPQ50 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1524 KOPPU (1524)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 19.3N 120.5E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 19.5N 121.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 221200UTC 20.0N 121.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 231200UTC 21.1N 122.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 241200UTC 22.7N 122.9E 240NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
120HF 251200UTC 23.5N 124.1E 300NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY =

WTPN51 PGTW 201500
WARNING ATCG MIL 24W NWP 151020135634
2015102012 24W KOPPU 031 02 070 03 SATL 060
T000 192N 1210E 045 R034 085 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 193N 1217E 040 R034 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 195N 1223E 040 R034 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 200N 1227E 035
T048 205N 1229E 035
T072 220N 1234E 030
T096 237N 1248E 030
T120 247N 1269E 025
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR 031
<rest omitted>

WDPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR
31//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (KOPPU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM
NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED
CENTER POSITIONED JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF LUZON. A 201328Z
NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW, FRAGMENTED BANDING ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND SPARSE DEEP CONVECTION.
BASED ON THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND LACK OF VISIBLE
IMAGERY, THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A 200220Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWING 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
LAND INTERACTION AS WELL AS MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TS 24W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK, COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND AN INDUCED RIDGE TO THE
EAST (BETWEEN TS 24W AND TY 25W) PRODUCING A SLOW EASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT. ADDITIONALLY, TS 24W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH
IS LIKELY HAMPERING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. AS A RESULT OF THE COMPLEX SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT, DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS WITH THE BULK
INDICATING A NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 48.
GFDN AND NAVGEM SHOW AN UNLIKELY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO
SOUTHEAST CHINA WHILE COAMPS-TC TRACKS THE SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN
TAIWAN. BASED ON THE BULK OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE, TS 24W IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT
ENCOUNTERS THE INDUCED STR AND TURNS POLEWARD AFTER TAU 36. AFTER
TAU 36, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY AS THE STR TO THE EAST
BUILDS AFTER TY 25W RE-CURVES NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MAINTAIN AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM UNDER MARGINAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 24W SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TRACK SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN SLOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN
JAPAN AND OKINAWA, WHICH WILL ALSO SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DUE TO
THE COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR. TS 24W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND COULD
POSSIBLY DISSIPATE MORE QUICKLY THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. OVERALL,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND LARGE SPRAED IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.//
NNNN
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#209 Postby supercane » Tue Oct 20, 2015 3:44 pm

WTPQ50 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1524 KOPPU (1524)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 19.4N 121.7E FAIR
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 211800UTC 19.5N 122.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 221800UTC 20.2N 122.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 231800UTC 21.3N 122.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 241800UTC 23.1N 123.4E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
120HF 251800UTC 23.9N 125.4E 375NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY =

WTPN51 PGTW 202100
WARNING ATCG MIL 24W NWP 151020195602
2015102018 24W KOPPU 032 02 090 05 SATL 060
T000 192N 1215E 035
T012 192N 1221E 030
T024 194N 1225E 030
T036 197N 1231E 025
T048 208N 1235E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR 032
<rest omitted>

WDPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR
32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (KOPPU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM
NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED
CENTER POSITIONED JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF LUZON. BASED ON THE
WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND LACK OF RELIABLE IMAGERY, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN DECREASED TO 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE LACK OF DEEP DEFINING
CONVECTION AND LLCC. WHILE PREVIOUS ASCTA DOES SHOW HIGHER WINDS AT
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, THESE ARE ATTRIBUTED TO FUNNELING
AFFECTS OF THE LUZON TERRAIN AND TAIWAN. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN MARGINAL MODERATE EASTERLY VWS AND A WEAKENING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TS 24W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF A NER TO THE SOUTH AND AN INDUCED RIDGE TO THE EAST (BETWEEN
TS 24W AND TY 25W).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. DUE TO THE OVERALL WEAKNESS, ILL-DEFINED NATURE AND BROADNESS
OF THIS SYSTEM, IN ADDITION TO LAND INTERACTION AND POOR STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, IT IS ASSESSED THAT THIS SYSTEM IS PROBABLY NO LONGER
TROPICAL IN NATURE.
B. TS 24W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
UNTIL THROUGH TAU 48 AS THE STEERING MECHANISM CHANGES FROM
PRIMARILY THE NER TO THE INDUCED RIDGE. THIS RIDGE BEGINS TO TAKE ON
CHARACTERISTICS OF A STR ALONG 19 NORTH. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
POLEWARD, IT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TRACK SPEED AND WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY. TS KOPPU IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BY TAU
48. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO THE
COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.//
NNNN
Last edited by supercane on Tue Oct 20, 2015 3:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#210 Postby NotoSans » Tue Oct 20, 2015 3:52 pm

The circulation has become very broad as per latest ASCAT and almost all the deep convection associated with the system has dissipated. Barely qualifies for a tropical cyclone now.
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#211 Postby supercane » Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:57 pm

JMA has Koppu hanging on with 00Z update:
WTPQ50 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1524 KOPPU (1524)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 19.4N 122.3E FAIR
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 19.6N 122.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 230000UTC 20.8N 122.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 240000UTC 22.6N 123.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 250000UTC 24.0N 125.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
120HF 260000UTC 24.4N 126.8E 375NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY =

WTPQ30 RJTD 210000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TS 1524 KOPPU (1524)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 210000 UTC IS FAIR.
TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
TS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 1.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

JTWC writes the final advisory on Koppu.
WTPN51 PGTW 210300
WARNING ATCG MIL 24W NWP 151021015903
2015102100 24W KOPPU 033 02 100 07 SATL 060
T000 191N 1222E 025
T012 192N 1227E 020
T024 196N 1230E 020
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR 033
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR 033
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 24W
<snip>
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 122.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (KOPPU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM
SOUTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LLCC
THAT CONTINUES TO EXPAND AS WELL AS FAIRLY SHALLOW CONVECTION ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A 202308Z SSMIS PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE BROAD LLCC AND FAIRLY WEAK WRAPPING
CONVECTION, PROVIDING OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITIONING OF
THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE
SYSTEM, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 25 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO AN AREA OF
HIGH VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE DUE TO
INCREASING VWS. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD, THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE LOSES THE VORTEX DUE TO ITS BROAD, WEAK NATURE
AND TRACKS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#212 Postby supercane » Wed Oct 21, 2015 9:47 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 21.6N 157.7E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 27.5N 158.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 22KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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#213 Postby supercane » Wed Oct 21, 2015 9:48 am

JMA 12Z:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 20N 123E EAST SLOWLY.
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Re:

#214 Postby NotoSans » Wed Oct 21, 2015 9:49 am

supercane wrote:WTPQ20 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 21.6N 157.7E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 27.5N 158.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 22KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


that's 94W advisory
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Re: WPAC: KOPPU - Post-Tropical

#215 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 6:38 am

Devastating...already 54 dead.

A storm total of 1,077.8 mm (42.43 in) was observed in Baguio, with 800 mm (31 in) falling in a 24-hour span.[33] Just south of Baguio at the San Roque Dam, an unconfirmed 24-hour accumulation of 1,317 mm (51.9 in), including 717 mm (28.2 in) in 12 hours, was reported. If verified, these would be the greatest 12- and 24-hour rainfall totals on record in the Philippines.
:double:
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http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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