WPAC: CHAMPI - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

TPPN11 PGTW 150024

A. TROPICAL STORM 25W (CHAMPI)

B. 14/2332Z

C. 15.50N

D. 152.81E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .65 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 394 NM
EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
CONTINUES TO DEPICT DEEPENED CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 142345Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS SHALLOW SPIRAL BANDING WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KNOT IS BASED ON THE
CURRENT STRUCTURE AND SLIGHTLY HEDGED HIGHER THAN CORRESPONDING
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES (T3.0) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. TS 25W IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS CHAMPI WILL TRACK ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 48.
AFTERWARDS, TS 25W WILL TURN TO A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AS IT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ALLOWING A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AND LEADING TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 25W WILL TURN POLEWARD AND ROUND THE
STEERING STR. THE CYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (BELOW 27 CELSIUS) AND INCREASING VWS IS OFFSET
BY THE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM
GAINS LATITUDE THE DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN IT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE TURN AND SPREAD AMONG
AVAILABLE TRACKERS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE JTWC TRACK CONFIDENCE
LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Tops are brutal cold, approaching -100*C in full-on daylight. Now, if only the center could find the convection...

[euro6208]

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN...
SAIPAN...ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.
TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

[euro6208]

TXPQ27 KNES 150922
TCSWNP

A. 25W (CHAMPI)

B. 15/0832Z

C. 16.0N

D. 150.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/WINDSAT

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM BEING SHEARED. LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN 1/3 OF A
DEGREE INTO DG FOR A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

15/0810Z 16.0N 150.5E WINDSAT


...VELASCO

[supercane]

Quite a difference between JTWC, which has Champi at 60kt, and JMA, which has it at 40kt.

WTPQ51 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 16.2N 150.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM WEST 150NM EAST
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 17.6N 145.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 171200UTC 19.4N 141.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 181200UTC 21.1N 140.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 191200UTC 22.7N 141.5E 240NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
120HF 201200UTC 24.6N 142.5E 375NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY =

WTPN52 PGTW 151500
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 151015140853
2015101512 25W CHAMPI 010 02 265 16 SATL 060
T000 159N 1495E 050 R034 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 150 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 164N 1467E 060 R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 171N 1442E 070 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 181N 1424E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 145 SW QD 135 NW QD
T048 196N 1411E 085 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 135 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 218N 1413E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 236N 1430E 090
T120 252N 1451E 080
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN...
SAIPAN...ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.
TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

[supercane]

WDPN32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 218 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. A
151150Z ASCAT IMAGE PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION OF THE
SYSTEM AND REINFORCES THE 50 KNOT CURRENT INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT EASTERLY DIVERGENCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE 15-25
KNOT NORTHEASTERLY VWS IN CHECK. TS CHAMPI IS TRACKING UNDER THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS CHAMPI WILL TRACK ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR EXTENSION. THE SYSTEM
WILL BECOME MORE IN-PHASE WITH THE VWS FACTORS ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY, THE STR EXTENSION WILL SLOWLY RETREAT
TO THE EAST, ALLOWING TS 25W TO BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU
48. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS, ALLOWING
THE SYSTEM TO PEAK AT 100 KNOTS DUE TO INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK AROUND THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STR, SLOWLY DECAYING DUE
TO COLLING SSTS AND AN INCREASE IN VWS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IN
IS FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISPARITY IN THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM AFTER THE RECURVE. DESPITE THE SPREAD IN THE LATER TAUS,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN


180
WTPQ32 PGUM 151503
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAMPI (25W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP252015
200 AM CHST FRI OCT 16 2015

..TROPICAL STORM CHAMPI MOVING WEST

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN...
SAIPAN...ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
6 TO 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.
TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 148.8E

ABOUT 215 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 225 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 225 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 245 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 275 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 325 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...TROPICAL STORM CHAMPI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.8 EAST. MOVEMENT IS TOWARD THE
WEST AT 18 MPH. CHAMPI IS EXPECTED TO RESUME MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS
TRACK WOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF CHAMPI THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANAS
NORTH OF ANATAHAN EARLY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM CHAMPI IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON
SOMETIME TODAY.

LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND UP TO 115
MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE RADIUS
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM.


ZIOBRO

[supercane]

Latest ASCAT shows what NWS Guam referred to with 50kt winds in the SW quadrant:



Despite the continued presence of NE shear:

[supercane]

Flash flood warnings in effect for Tinian and Saipan with very heavy rains from Champi. Looking at METAR Saipan's hourly rainfall rates were 1.02" ending at 13Z, 0.28" ending at 14Z, 0.45" ending at 15Z, 0.70" ending at 16Z, and 0.36" so far this hour for a total of 2.81" over a little more than 4 hours.


000
WGMY50 PGUM 151544
FFWMY

FFWMY

- PGUM 000000
FFWGUM
GUC030-040-152300-
/O.NEW.PGUM.FF.W.0013.151015T1544Z-151015T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1255 AM CHST FRI OCT 16 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN GUAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE ISLANDS OF TINIAN...SAIPAN...

* UNTIL 900 AM CHST FRIDAY

* AT 1255 AM CHST...SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATED RAIN ASSCOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM CHANMPI WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. SATELLITE RAINFALL
ESTIMATES THAT AN ADDITIONAL 8 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE BEFORE NOON
TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 1522 14578 1516 14580 1517 14576 1511 14576
1504 14564 1495 14567 1492 14563 1501 14558
1509 14563 1508 14566 1510 14570 1521 14572
1529 14581

$$

ZIOBRO

[1900hurricane]

Convection might be backbuilding towards the center some. Overall the convection hasn't moved much, allowing the center to move underneath a bit.

[1900hurricane]

Radar from Guam starting to show storms coming around the backside of Champi.

[Extratropical94]

Now a Severe Tropical Storm:

WTPQ51 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1525 CHAMPI (1525) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 16.2N 148.7E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM WEST 150NM EAST
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 17.7N 143.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 171800UTC 19.8N 140.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 181800UTC 21.7N 141.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 191800UTC 23.8N 142.2E 240NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
120HF 201800UTC 25.4N 144.0E 375NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT =

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Typhoon.

TY 1525 (CHAMPI)
Issued at 01:00 UTC, 16 October 2015


<Analyses at 16/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N16°00'(16.0°)
E146°55'(146.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more W440km(240NM)
E280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 17/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°55'(17.9°)
E142°20'(142.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 18/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°00'(20.0°)
E140°40'(140.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 19/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°55'(21.9°)
E141°20'(141.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE Slowly
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM)

[euro6208]

Very heavy rains this morning in Guam as Tropical storm Champi moves over the area.



000
WGMY50 PGUM 160021
FFWMY

- PGUM 000000
FFWGUM
GUC110-120-160615-
/O.NEW.PGUM.FF.W.0014.151016T0021Z-151016T0615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1017 AM CHST FRI OCT 16 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN GUAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE ISLANDS OF TINIAN...SAIPAN...

* UNTIL 415 PM CHST

* AT 9 AM...7 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN HAD ALREADY FALLEN OVER TINIAN
AND SAIPAN FROM TROPICAL STORM CHAMPI. AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 6 INCHES
OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE. DO NOT
DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 1522 14578 1516 14580 1516 14574 1511 14576
1507 14566 1504 14564 1495 14567 1492 14563
1501 14558 1509 14563 1508 14566 1510 14570
1521 14572 1529 14582

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

000
WGMY80 PGUM 160058
FLSMY

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1051 AM CHST FRI OCT 16 2015

GUC010-160345-
/O.NEW.PGUM.FA.Y.0012.151016T0058Z-151016T0345Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GUAM GU-
1051 AM CHST FRI OCT 16 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN GUAM HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
THE ISLAND OF GUAM...

* UNTIL 145 PM CHST

* AT 1050 AM...RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS GUAM. AN
INCH OR MORE OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN THIS MORNING...AND 1 TO
2 INCHES MORE IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN MINOR
FLOODING OF ROADS...SMALL STREAMS...AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU WILL BE DRIVING...WATCH FOR MINOR FLOODING ON ROADS AND
BE ALERT FOR SLIPPERY ROAD SURFACES.

LAT...LON 1334 14464 1341 14465 1343 14463 1348 14476
1352 14481 1364 14485 1365 14488 1360 14490
1359 14495 1353 14494 1342 14478 1328 14476
1323 14467

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 160108
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAMPI (25W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP252015
1100 AM CHST FRI OCT 16 2015

...CHAMPI CONTINUING WEST AND SLOWLY INTENSIFYING...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN...
SAIPAN...ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.
TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 146.9E

ABOUT 90 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 105 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 165 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 215 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...TROPICAL STORM CHAMPI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.9 EAST. MOVEMENT IS TOWARD
THE WEST AT 18 MPH. CHAMPI IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
LATER TODAY WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF CHAMPI THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MARIANAS NEAR...OR JUST NORTH OF ANATAHAN THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
CHAMPI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY.

LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND UP TO 155
MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 200 PM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 500 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT

[1900hurricane]

Little surprised to the JMA upgrade Champi to a typhoon already. It also looks a little tilted. The mid-level center seen a bit NW of Saipan in the radar loop above (which can also kinda be seen in the vis) looks a bit displaced SW of the apparent low-level center on visible imagery.

[euro6208]

Latest obs from the Marianas showing gale winds and very heavy rains.

Anderson Guam reporting sustained west winds of 40 mph gusting to 56 mph, 1001 mb.

Guam airport 35 mph gusting to 43 mph, 1002 mb.

Rota 26 mph gusting to 45 mph, 1001.

Saipan northwest winds of 26 mph gusting to 41 mph. 990mb.

Tinian 23 mph gusting to 30 mph. 992 mb.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 OCT 2015 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 15:50:47 N Lon : 146:35:30 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 986.7mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.6 3.9

Center Temp : -82.4C Cloud Region Temp : -82.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 138km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 18.7 degrees

[euro6208]

Deepens it 2 mb lower in latest run...

12Z 913 mb



18Z 911 mb

[euro6208]

Almost making it's closest approach to Saipan and Anatahan...

WDPN32 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 73 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI
LOOP AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE
AND OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
(RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 25W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT BEING OFFSET BY
THE STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. TS CHAMPI IS TRACKING UNDER THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, TS 25W HAS TRACKED
MORE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, PLACING THE CURRENT POSITION
SLIGHTLY SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE, THE
CURRENT TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH TO
REFLECT THIS STORM MOTION CHANGE. SEE WARNING GRAPHIC FOR CPA
CHANGES.
B. TS CHAMPI WILL TRACK ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR EXTENSION. THE SYSTEM
WILL BECOME MORE IN-PHASE WITH THE VWS FACTORS ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY, THE STR EXTENSION WILL SLOWLY RETREAT
TO THE EAST, ALLOWING TS 25W TO BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU
48. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. CONCURRENTLY, ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING
LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS CHAMPI WILL REMAIN ON A NORTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECAY AS IT TRACKS INTO
COOLING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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