WPAC: CHAMPI - Post-Tropical

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#101 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 19, 2015 5:51 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 OCT 2015 Time : 100000 UTC
Lat : 20:59:20 N Lon : 140:08:04 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 946.5mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.8 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 29 km

Center Temp : -0.0C Cloud Region Temp : -66.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 140km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.2 degrees
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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#102 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 19, 2015 7:22 am

06Z GFS bottoms Champi to 917 mb just before it hits Iwo Jima...
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#103 Postby supercane » Mon Oct 19, 2015 9:01 am

WTPQ51 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 21.0N 140.2E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 230NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 201200UTC 21.7N 139.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 211200UTC 23.0N 139.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 221200UTC 24.6N 141.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 231200UTC 26.9N 144.5E 240NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
120HF 241200UTC 29.9N 150.8E 300NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT =
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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#104 Postby supercane » Mon Oct 19, 2015 9:12 am

JTWC 15Z at 100kt:
WTPN52 PGTW 191500
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 151019130258
2015101912 25W CHAMPI 026 02 335 02 SATL 025
T000 210N 1402E 100 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 145 SE QD 175 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 215N 1399E 095 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 160 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 222N 1397E 095 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 140 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 230N 1397E 090 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 145 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 236N 1400E 090 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 255N 1428E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 135 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 283N 1484E 060
T120 310N 1556E 040
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 026
<rest omitted>

WDPN32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE
SURROUNDING A 24NM EYE WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. A 191004Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE ERODING DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION, ELONGATING THE CLOUD SYSTEM STRUCTURE.
THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED BASED ON THE WEAKENING STRUCTURE AND
IS SUPPORTED BY DECREASING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENT
WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY
CHAMPI IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING STR. AFTER
TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER
DETERIORATE AS VWS INCREASES ABOVE 30 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DECREASE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY CHAMPI WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN DUE TO POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH
SSTS DROPPING BELOW 26 CELSIUS. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL START
TO INTERACT WITH THE ZONAL MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND BEGIN A WEAK EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE TYPHOON WILL COMPLETE ETT BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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#105 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 19, 2015 10:42 am

Eyewall replacement got too long and drawn out. Champi also moved north of 20*N, where mid-latitude hazards start coming into play, and sure enough, it took in a finger of dry air. The dry air got the northern portion of the eyewall, interrupting eyewall replacement. Cloud tops have cooled some due to the added convergence back to remains of the inner eyewall, but the eye has cooled considerably too, which is not a glaring endorsement of overall system health.

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#106 Postby supercane » Mon Oct 19, 2015 4:32 pm

WTPQ51 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 21.1N 140.1E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 230NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 21.9N 139.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 211800UTC 23.2N 139.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 221800UTC 25.1N 142.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 231800UTC 27.1N 146.2E 240NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
120HF 241800UTC 30.0N 153.3E 300NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT =

WTPN52 PGTW 192100
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 151019194745
2015101918 25W CHAMPI 027 02 315 01 SATL 030
T000 211N 1401E 100 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 145 SE QD 175 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 214N 1399E 100 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 218N 1396E 095 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 140 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 225N 1396E 090 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 145 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 234N 1399E 090 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 253N 1423E 085 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 278N 1482E 070 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 005 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 310N 1570E 055 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 005 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 027

WDPN32 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY WEAKENING ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE SURROUNDING
A 14NM EYE WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A 191652Z N-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING
INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION WHICH, IN TURN,
SLIGHTLY ELONGATES THE CLOUD SYSTEMS STRUCTURE. THE INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS. TY CHAMPI IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR EXTENSION TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN AXIS OF THE STR EXTENSION. WHILE THE
INTENSITY WILL MAINTAIN FOR A LIMITED AMOUNT OF TIME, INCREASING VWS
WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM THOUGH TAU 48. THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STR
AXIS THOUGH TAU 48. BY TAU 72 TY 25W WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY CHAMPI WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN DUE TO POOR ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WITH SSTS DROPPING BELOW 26 CELSIUS. ADDITIONALLY, THE
CYCLONE WILL START TO INTERACT WITH THE ZONAL MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND
BEGIN A WEAK EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE TYPHOON WILL
COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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#107 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 19, 2015 6:16 pm

Ick, major dry air wrap. That's going to be tough to mix out.

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Last edited by 1900hurricane on Mon Oct 19, 2015 6:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#108 Postby supercane » Mon Oct 19, 2015 10:41 pm

WTPQ51 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 21.4N 140.2E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 230NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 22.1N 139.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 220000UTC 23.4N 140.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 230000UTC 25.4N 143.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 240000UTC 27.5N 147.2E 240NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
120HF 250000UTC 31.3N 154.1E 300NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT =

WTPQ31 RJTD 200000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 200000 UTC IS GOOD.
TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE.
TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 36 HOURS FROM 200000 UTC.
TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHEAST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

WTPN52 PGTW 200300
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 151020014429
2015102000 25W CHAMPI 028 02 360 04 SATL 060
T000 215N 1401E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 155 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 219N 1400E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 145 SE QD 145 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 223N 1399E 095 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 229N 1399E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 135 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 236N 1404E 090 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 253N 1432E 085 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 140 SE QD 135 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 276N 1482E 070 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 005 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 307N 1560E 055 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 005 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 028
<snip>
200300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 140.1E.
<rest omitted>

WDPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 209 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY WEAKENING ASYMMETRIC
CONVECTIVE CORE SURROUNDING A 12NM EYE WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 192237Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC, WHICH
IS INDICATIVE OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION WHICH, IN TURN, SLIGHTLY
ELONGATES THE CLOUD SYSTEMS STRUCTURE. THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 100
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND LOW VWS. TY CHAMPI IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED STR EXTENSION TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN AXIS OF THE STR EXTENSION. WHILE THE
INTENSITY WILL MAINTAIN FOR A LIMITED AMOUNT OF TIME, INCREASING VWS
WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM THOUGH TAU 48. THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STR
AXIS THOUGH TAU 48. BY TAU 72 TY 25W WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY CHAMPI WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN DUE TO POOR ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WITH SSTS DROPPING BELOW 26 CELSIUS. ADDITIONALLY, THE
CYCLONE WILL START TO INTERACT WITH THE ZONAL MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND
BEGIN A WEAK EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE TYPHOON WILL
COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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#109 Postby supercane » Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:23 am

JMA shows Champi continuing to weaken at 80kt and no longer forecasting restrengthening.
WTPQ51 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 21.8N 140.2E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 230NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 210600UTC 22.4N 139.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 220600UTC 23.6N 141.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 230600UTC 25.3N 144.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 240600UTC 27.8N 148.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
120HF 250600UTC 32.6N 156.4E 375NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT =
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#110 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 20, 2015 11:58 am

Champi is trying to resume eyewall replacement. The eyewall is even bigger now, so I don't think it'll ever complete. Dry air still lurks about too.

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#111 Postby supercane » Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:46 pm

WTPQ51 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 22.0N 139.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 22.7N 140.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 221200UTC 23.8N 141.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 231200UTC 25.7N 145.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 241200UTC 29.2N 150.8E 280NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
120HF 251200UTC 35.3N 162.3E 375NM 70%
MOVE NE 29KT =

WTPN52 PGTW 201500
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 151020131230
2015102012 25W CHAMPI 030 02 360 04 SATL 030
T000 222N 1400E 080 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 140 SE QD 135 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 228N 1401E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 232N 1405E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 236N 1412E 070 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 241N 1423E 065 R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 135 SE QD 125 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 263N 1462E 055 R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 125 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 294N 1515E 050
T120 345N 1624E 045
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 030
<rest omitted>

WDPN32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 172 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) INDICATES CONTINUED WEAKENING OF CORE CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A 201146Z
GPM 36GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. BASED ON THE RECENT WEAKENING
TREND, DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 77 KNOTS
(4.5), THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH
LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TY 25W IS TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 12
THEN IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR. TY
25W SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSET BY INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SST ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT 28C UNTIL TAU 36. AFTER
TAU 36, SST WILL DECREASE TO 27C WHILE VWS INCREASES TO MODERATE
LEVELS, WHICH WILL ALLOW A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH SHOWS A VERY SLOW, UNREALISTIC RE-CURVE,
THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 25W WILL WEAKEN MORE
RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (NEAR 25C) AND ENCOUNTERS
STRONG VWS GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS. TY 25W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 96 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHILE ACCELERATING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 120 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED
IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. AGAIN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN,
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED
FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET
GFDN.//
NNNN
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#112 Postby supercane » Tue Oct 20, 2015 3:43 pm

WTPQ51 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 22.3N 139.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 211800UTC 22.8N 140.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 221800UTC 24.0N 142.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 231800UTC 26.2N 146.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 241800UTC 29.2N 152.6E 280NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
120HF 251800UTC 36.5N 167.0E 375NM 70%
MOVE ENE 35KT =

WTPN52 PGTW 202100
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 151020200607
2015102018 25W CHAMPI 031 02 360 02 SATL 060
T000 224N 1400E 080 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 125 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 228N 1403E 080 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 130 SE QD 125 SW QD 135 NW QD
T024 232N 1408E 075 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 125 SE QD 120 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 235N 1417E 075 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 130 SE QD 125 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 241N 1431E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 125 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 258N 1461E 060 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 110 SE QD 105 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 294N 1525E 055 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 005 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 374N 1670E 045 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 005 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 031
<rest omitted>

WDPN32 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 31//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 161 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES SOME WEAKENING OF CORE CONVECTION, HOWEVER, TIGHTLY-
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO A LOOSELY DEFINED
CENTER. A 201708Z NPP IMAGES CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BROAD MICROWAVE
EYE, LEADING TO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN POSITIONING AND SHOWS THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE RANGING
FROM DT4.5 TO 5.0 AND A SLIGHTLY WEAKENING TREND. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH LIMITED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND 10 TO 20 KNOTS OF NORTHWESTERLY VWS. TY 25W IS TRACKING
SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE AXIS OF AN EXTENSION OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU
12 AS IT SLOWLY ROUNDS THE RIDGE. EXPECT CONTINUED SLOW TRACK SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 36 AS IT IS TRACKING OVER THE WEAKENING
EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE. INTENSITIES MAY MAINTAIN OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS WITH SLOW DECAY OF THE SYSTEM AS INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ATTEMPTS TO OFFSET THE INCREASINGLY HAMPERING VWS. AFTER TAU 36, SST
WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE WHILE VWS CONTINUES TO INCREASE, WHICH WILL
ALLOW A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 25W WILL WEAKEN MORE
RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS STRONGER VWS. TY
25W IS EXPECT TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 96
AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHILE
ACCELERATING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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#113 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 20, 2015 3:52 pm

Much like Nuri last year, Champi could have some large ramifications on the entire northern hemispheric pattern. Models are becoming more consistent in bombing Champi as an extratropical low, and all are pretty much going below 950 mb in 6 days or so. Some are even going sub 920 mb.
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#114 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 20, 2015 5:44 pm

Not a bad recovery thus far.

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#115 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:13 pm

Well, I'll be darned, the eye might clear yet.

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#116 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:55 pm

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#117 Postby supercane » Tue Oct 20, 2015 11:00 pm

WTPQ51 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 22.7N 139.8E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 23.3N 141.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 230000UTC 24.3N 143.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 240000UTC 26.4N 147.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 250000UTC 29.9N 154.1E 280NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
120HF 260000UTC 39.5N 171.3E 375NM 70%
MOVE NE 43KT =

WTPQ31 RJTD 210000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 210000 UTC IS GOOD.
TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE.
TY WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHEAST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

WTPN52 PGTW 210300
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 151021010739
2015102100 25W CHAMPI 032 02 360 03 SATL 060
T000 227N 1400E 075 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 231N 1404E 075 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 234N 1412E 075 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 125 SE QD 115 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 236N 1423E 075 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 125 SE QD 120 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 242N 1438E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 105 NW QD
T072 274N 1488E 060 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 110 SE QD 105 SW QD 095 NW QD
T096 311N 1552E 055 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 005 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 032
<rest omitted>

WDPN32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME WEAKENING OF
CORE CONVECTION, SPECIFICALLY ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF A THE
VISIBLE DIMPLE/EMBEDDED CENTER. THE POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, REINFORCED BY A 202225Z SSMIS MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.
HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN KEEPING WITH A
SLIGHT FALL IN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW. EQUATORWARD
FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG, OFFSETTING 10 TO 15 KNOTS OF VWS. THE
SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR
EXTENSION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STR
AXIS. EXPECT MARGINAL TO NO INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL BE OFFSET BY
INCREASED VWS. BEYOND THAT TIME, COOLER SSTS WILL START TO HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE SYSTEM BRINGING FURTHER DECAY. FINALLY, BY TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT GAINS LATITUDE. ADDITION, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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#118 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 20, 2015 11:47 pm

Pretty good discussion for a fix bulletin.

TXPQ27 KNES 210321
TCSWNP

A. 25W (CHAMPI)

B. 21/0232Z

C. 22.7N

D. 139.9E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/W0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/WINDSAT/GMI

H. REMARKS...IN SOME WAYS CHAMPI HAS A BETTER APPEARANCE THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. IR ANIMATION SHOWS A NEARLY SYMMETRIC RING OF COLD TOPS AROUND A
LARGE INNER CLOUD FILLED CORE. MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 0106Z ALSO DEPICTS
A NEARLY CIRCULAR NARROW EYE WALL THAT IS QUITE BROAD AND WAS NOT PRESENT
24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...DRY AIR MAY BE GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM
WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS BREAKING THROUGH THE EASTERN EYE WALL. FOR THIS
CLASSIFICATION HAVE USED AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN WITH CENTER EMBEDDED
IN OW FOR DT=3.5. MET=4.5 BASED ON 24 HOUR STEADY TREND. PT=4.0. FT IS
BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

20/2051Z 22.4N 140.1E WINDSAT
21/0106Z 22.8N 140.0E GMI


...RUMINSKI
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#119 Postby supercane » Wed Oct 21, 2015 9:50 am

WTPQ51 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 23.2N 140.3E GOOD
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 23.8N 142.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 231200UTC 25.4N 146.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 241200UTC 28.5N 151.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 251200UTC 34.7N 164.2E 280NM 70%
MOVE ENE 30KT
120HF 261200UTC 47.2N 177.0W 375NM 70%
MOVE NE 47KT =

WTPN52 PGTW 211500
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 151021125940
2015102112 25W CHAMPI 034 02 045 04 SATL 020
T000 232N 1404E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 125 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 235N 1412E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 239N 1424E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 135 SE QD 125 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 246N 1443E 085 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 135 SE QD 130 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 255N 1464E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 135 SE QD 125 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 284N 1523E 060 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 334N 1621E 050
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 034

WDPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 34//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 108 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TREND WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 28-NM RAGGED EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
ENHANCED BY THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TY 25W HAS STARTED TO RE-
CURVE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 24,
PARTICULARLY THE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST, TY 25W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU
36, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE LEADING TO A STEADY
WEAKENING TREND. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST NEAR
TAU 48 WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TY 25W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 25W SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 96 WHILE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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#120 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 21, 2015 3:15 pm

Back up to 90 kt now. Champi could feasibly become a major once again before heading off to baroclinic bombogenesis.
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