WPAC: CHAMPI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#121 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 21, 2015 3:52 pm

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WDPN32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 35//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 96 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TREND WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN 18-NM RAGGED EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90
KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, RJTD.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED
BY THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TY 25W HAS STARTED TO RE-CURVE ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 24, PARTICULARLY THE ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS, TY 25W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A
PEAK OF 95 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE
LEADING TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOLER SSTS NEAR TAU 48 WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TY 25W IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 25W SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 96 WHILE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#122 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 21, 2015 4:24 pm

Last reported obs from Iwo To is 68 gusting to 106 kph with a pressure of 991 over 20 mins ago...Hasn't updated yet...
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#123 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 21, 2015 7:58 pm

Champi isn't looking too shabby today.

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#124 Postby supercane » Wed Oct 21, 2015 9:11 pm

WTPQ51 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220000UTC 23.7N 141.2E GOOD
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 230000UTC 24.8N 144.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 240000UTC 26.6N 148.7E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 250000UTC 30.7N 155.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 260000UTC 41.6N 174.0E 350NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

WTPQ31 RJTD 220000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 220000 UTC IS GOOD.
TY WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
TY WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHEAST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

Marked recovery on JTWC advisory from 75kt 24hr ago back up to 100kt now.
WTPN52 PGTW 220300
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 151022011142
2015102200 25W CHAMPI 036 03 050 06 SATL 010
T000 237N 1412E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 243N 1426E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 250N 1444E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 135 SE QD 125 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 259N 1467E 085 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 135 SE QD 130 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 273N 1496E 075 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 135 SE QD 130 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 319N 1581E 055
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 036
<rest omitted>

WDPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 36//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 66 NM SOUTH OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS FURTHER INTENSIFIED AS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO A 14-NM RAGGED EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER
AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TY 25W IS NOW TRACKING ALONG THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS - PRIMARILY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOLER SSTS - WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE CYCLONE. BY TAU 36, TY 25W
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHILE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD.
TY CHAMPI WILL BECOME A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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#125 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 21, 2015 9:31 pm

Call me crazy if it is needed, but Champi may meet the definition of an annular tropical cyclone.

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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#126 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 21, 2015 9:50 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Call me crazy if it is needed, but Champi may meet the definition of an annular tropical cyclone.

Image

Image

yeah, looks annular to me... what a comeback

also got its warm eye (10c+) for the 1st time in its life.
2015OCT21 220100 5.8 943.8 109.8 5.7 5.9 5.9 NO LIMIT ON OFF -1.03 -71.26 EYE/L 43 IR 48.7 23.58 -141.03 SPRL MTSAT2 27.9
2015OCT21 223200 5.8 943.8 109.8 5.7 6.1 6.1 NO LIMIT ON OFF 9.76 -71.02 EYE/L 41 IR 67.9 23.60 -141.07 SPRL MTSAT2 27.9
2015OCT21 231400 5.8 943.8 109.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 13.36 -66.46 EYE/L 43 IR 67.9 23.62 -141.02 SPRL MTSAT2 28.0
2015OCT21 233200 5.8 943.8 109.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 12.92 -67.96 EYE/L 48 IR 67.9 23.63 -141.04 SPRL MTSAT2 28.0
2015OCT22 003200 5.9 941.0 112.4 5.9 5.9 5.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 11.69 -68.79 EYE/L 50 IR 67.9 23.77 -141.22 SPRL MTSAT2 28.1
2015OCT22 010100 5.9 941.0 112.4 5.8 5.7 5.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF 13.58 -65.57 EYE/L 54 IR 67.9 23.78 -141.26 SPRL MTSAT2 28.1
2015OCT22 013200 5.9 941.0 112.4 5.8 6.0 6.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF 15.35 -68.69 EYE/L 58 IR 67.9 23.79 -141.25 SPRL MTSAT2 28.1
2015OCT22 020100 5.9 941.0 112.4 5.8 5.8 5.8 NO LIMIT ON OFF 15.01 -66.89 EYE/L 59 IR 67.9 23.81 -141.31 SPRL MTSAT2 28.1
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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#127 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Oct 21, 2015 11:46 pm

This looks like a Cat3 at least...I wonder how strong it would be when it transitions to an extratropical system.. Since Nuri last year I've become fascinated how these recurving typhoons affect the weather pattern in the other side of the world.
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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#128 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 22, 2015 12:12 am

dexterlabio wrote:This looks like a Cat3 at least...I wonder how strong it would be when it transitions to an extratropical system.. Since Nuri last year I've become fascinated how these recurving typhoons affect the weather pattern in the other side of the world.


This storm is causing Hurricane Olaf to recurve. The people in the Hawaiian Islands are thankful for this storm!
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#129 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 22, 2015 12:40 am

What a pass!

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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#130 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Oct 22, 2015 1:37 am

^My rough guess is that as of now Champi is not yet causing a recurve pattern in the EPAC just yet, not until it bombs into an extratropical cyclone in the far northeast...
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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#131 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 4:26 am

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 37//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A CLOUD FILLED 35NM EYE WITH A DEEP CONVECTIVE CORE
THAT IS BEING ELONGATED AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE STRONG MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. A 220318Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
A DEEP CONVECTIVE RING SURROUNDING THE LARGE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON
CONCURRING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY
A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE
ZONAL FLOW. TY 25W IS NOW TRACKING ALONG THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO ERODE THE TYPHOON AS IT GAINS LATITUDE. TY CHAMPI WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36 AS IT EMBEDS IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TY 25W WILL COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A STRONG COLD CORE LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#132 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 4:26 am

TPPN11 PGTW 220601

A. TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI)

B. 22/0530Z

C. 24.04N

D. 141.71E

E. FOUR/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 5.5. MET YIELDS A 5.0 AND PT YIELDS A 5.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA
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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#133 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 22, 2015 4:57 am

spiral wrote:
Can you or anybody please explain how this storm is causing Olaf to recurve.




wxmann_91 wrote:It's not updating on the tropical tidbits site but pretty similar to 12Z. Gets close to 150W and then recurves. Massive vortex forming in the Gulf of Alaska next week from recurving TY Champi in the WPAC should carve out a fairly deep weakness. Only concern for HI is if Olaf's poleward motion continues to be stinted.
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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#134 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:11 am

Very impressive...

Image
Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#135 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:13 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2015 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 24:10:57 N Lon : 142:13:44 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 947.7mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 5.1 5.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 56 km

Center Temp : +17.3C Cloud Region Temp : -59.9C

Scene Type : LARGE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 152km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 28.4 degrees
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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#136 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 6:16 am

Very warm eye +17.7C.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2015 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 24:08:30 N Lon : 142:28:46 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 947.7mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.4 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 57 km

Center Temp : +17.7C Cloud Region Temp : -64.3C

Scene Type : LARGE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 152km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 28.3 degrees
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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#137 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 22, 2015 6:17 am

euro6208 wrote:Very impressive...

[img]http://i.imgur.com/6OlmU5h.gif[img]
[img]http://i.imgur.com/KVm76qo.gif/img]
[img]http://i.imgur.com/M2JjUIU.gif[img]


Agreed. It sure has been a long time since I've seen a true annular hurricane.
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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#138 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 6:32 am

Looks like Iwo To got brushed by the northern eyewall.

Last reported reading from 2 hours ago was 46 knots gustin to 72KT, pressure of 988 mb...

No reading since... :double:
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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#139 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 6:36 am

Too organized to be just a minimal category 3.

Looks like a mid category 4 now...

Image
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#140 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 22, 2015 8:08 am

This is a legit annular hurricane. Holy crap. Great symmetry and structure and the eye is perfectly round. CDO not overly cold but thick. Good upper-level outflow pattern. I'd estimate this is around 105 maybe 110 knots.
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