WPAC: CHAMPI - Post-Tropical

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Kingarabian
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#141 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 22, 2015 2:28 pm

Goodness gracious.

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#142 Postby supercane » Thu Oct 22, 2015 2:48 pm

WTPQ51 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221800UTC 24.7N 143.9E GOOD
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 231800UTC 26.3N 148.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 241800UTC 29.2N 154.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 251800UTC 38.7N 170.1E 325NM 70%
MOVE NE 40KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 261800UTC 50.2N 179.8E 350NM 70%
MOVE NNE 34KT =

WTPN52 PGTW 221500
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 151022123305
2015102212 25W CHAMPI 038 02 075 08 SATL 035
T000 242N 1425E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 180 NW QD
T012 248N 1444E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 150 SE QD 105 SW QD 165 NW QD
T024 255N 1467E 095 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 145 SE QD 115 SW QD 155 NW QD
T036 266N 1495E 085 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 145 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 282N 1528E 075 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 341N 1646E 055
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 038
<rest omitted>

WDPN32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 39//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM EAST OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MOSTLY UNCHANGED CONVECTIVE CORE STRUCTURE THAT IS SURROUNDING A 40NM
EYE WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL,
ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE ZONAL FLOW. TY 25W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO ERODE THE TYPHOON AS IT GAINS LATITUDE. TY CHAMPI WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36 AS IT EMBEDS IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETES ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS A STRONG COLD CORE LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#143 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 4:09 pm

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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

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http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#144 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 4:14 pm

Eye remains very distinct...

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Re: Re:

#145 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:01 pm

spiral wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:This is a legit annular hurricane. Holy crap. Great symmetry and structure and the eye is perfectly round. CDO not overly cold but thick. Good upper-level outflow pattern. I'd estimate this is around 105 maybe 110 knots.


JTWC makes no mention of a legit annular typhoon likely because there are conditions, ir brightness patterns for one.




http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10. ... F2007031.1


AFAIK it doesn't blatantly fail any of the criteria but please correct me if I'm wrong.
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#146 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 22, 2015 9:15 pm

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#147 Postby supercane » Thu Oct 22, 2015 10:09 pm

WTPQ51 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 25.0N 145.1E GOOD
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 26.9N 150.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 250000UTC 30.3N 157.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 260000UTC 41.5N 175.1E 325NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

WTPQ31 RJTD 230000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 230000 UTC IS GOOD.
TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE.
TY WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHEAST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.
TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 72 HOURS.=

WTPN52 PGTW 230300
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 151023020403
2015102300 25W CHAMPI 040 02 070 12 SATL 030
T000 251N 1451E 095 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 260N 1475E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 145 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 271N 1500E 075 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 285N 1532E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 125 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 310N 1580E 060 R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 105 SW QD 105 NW QD
T072 403N 1729E 045
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 040
<rest omitted>

WDPN32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 40//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 207 NM EAST OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONVECTIVE
CORE SURROUNDING A 40 NM EYE FEATURE, HOWEVER MORE RECENT IMAGERY
INDICATES THIS CORE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) BEING OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, ENHANCED BY
THE MID-LATITUDE ZONAL FLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE UP TO 30 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. TY 25W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO ERODE THE TYPHOON AS IT GAINS LATITUDE. TY CHAMPI WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36 AS IT EMBEDS IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETES ETT SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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#148 Postby supercane » Fri Oct 23, 2015 9:56 am

WTPQ21 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 26.0N 147.8E GOOD
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 27.9N 152.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 251200UTC 35.7N 166.4E 210NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

WTPN52 PGTW 231500
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 151023130529
2015102312 25W CHAMPI 042 01 080 15 SATL 045
T000 257N 1481E 080 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 125 SE QD 140 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 270N 1515E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 135 SE QD 150 SW QD 145 NW QD
T024 290N 1555E 060 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 145 SE QD 155 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 324N 1608E 050
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 042
<rest omitted>

WDPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 42//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 643 NM NORTH OF
SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED
EYE FEATURE WITH CONTINUED DETERIORATION OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
AS IT BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST. A 231046Z GPM
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS ALL CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE TYPHOON EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND BEGINNING
TO SHOW FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS; INDICATING THE BEGINNING OF EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR
ENVIRONMENT WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS WITH A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE ZONAL FLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 28 CELSIUS. TY 25W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 25W WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING VWS
AND DECREASING SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE TYPHOON AS IT GAINS
LATITUDE. TY CHAMPI WILL CONTINUE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS
IT EMBEDS IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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#149 Postby supercane » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:20 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 26.5N 149.3E GOOD
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 241800UTC 29.0N 155.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 251800UTC 38.6N 170.7E 210NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

WTPN52 PGTW 232100
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 151023195837
2015102318 25W CHAMPI 043 01 055 13 SATL 060
T000 265N 1493E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 278N 1521E 065 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 299N 1562E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 105 NW QD
T036 340N 1627E 050
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 043
<rest omitted>

WDPN32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 43//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 444 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN ELONGATED AND RAGGED EYE FEATURE WITH CONTINUED DETERIORATION OF
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, SPECIFICALLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE, AS IT
BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST. A 231605Z AMSU-B IMAGE
SHOWS ALL CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ELONGATED
LLCC. THE OVERALL SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM INDICATES THAT IT IS
CURRENTLY GOING ETT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR
ENVIRONMENT WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS WITH NEAR
DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, WITH THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE MID-
LATITUDE ZONAL FLOW. TY 25W IS TRACKING ALONG THE POLEWARD SIDE OF
THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 25W WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING VWS AND
DECREASING SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE TYPHOON AS IT GAINS
LATITUDE. TY CHAMPI WILL CONTINUE ETT AS IT EMBEDS IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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#150 Postby supercane » Fri Oct 23, 2015 9:23 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 27.0N 150.3E GOOD
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 31.1N 158.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 27KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 260000UTC 42.6N 175.1E 210NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

WTPQ31 RJTD 240000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
INTERACTION BETWEEN TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL BECOME STRONG FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 240000 UTC IS GOOD.
TY WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TY WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHEAST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO LOW SST AREA
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.
TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.=

WTPN52 PGTW 240300
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 151024020601
2015102400 25W CHAMPI 044 01 065 11 SATL 060
T000 270N 1504E 070 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 135 SE QD 100 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 286N 1539E 060 R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 317N 1589E 055 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 365N 1665E 045
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 044
<rest omitted>

WDPN32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 43//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 444 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN ELONGATED AND RAGGED EYE FEATURE WITH CONTINUED DETERIORATION OF
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, SPECIFICALLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE, AS IT
BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST. A 231605Z AMSU-B IMAGE
SHOWS ALL CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ELONGATED
LLCC. THE OVERALL SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM INDICATES THAT IT IS
CURRENTLY GOING ETT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR
ENVIRONMENT WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS WITH NEAR
DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, WITH THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE MID-
LATITUDE ZONAL FLOW. TY 25W IS TRACKING ALONG THE POLEWARD SIDE OF
THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 25W WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING VWS AND
DECREASING SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE TYPHOON AS IT GAINS
LATITUDE. TY CHAMPI WILL CONTINUE ETT AS IT EMBEDS IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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#151 Postby supercane » Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:16 am

WTPN52 PGTW 240900
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 151024063314
2015102406 25W CHAMPI 045 01 075 14 SATL 030
T000 274N 1519E 065 R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 298N 1565E 060 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 341N 1633E 050
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 045
<rest omitted>

WDPN32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 45//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION,
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM STILL RETAINS CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A 35-NM
RAGGED EYE. A 240324Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CURVED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYMMETRIC LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TY 25W IS TRACKING UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER, THE SHEAR VECTOR IS PARALLEL TO
THE MOTION VECTOR, WHICH IS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO RETAIN CENTRAL
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ADDITIONALLY, VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
OFFSETTING THE VWS. TY 25W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 25W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT). TY 25W WILL COMPLETE ETT NEAR TAU 24 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

WTPQ21 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 28.0N 153.7E GOOD
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 37.0N 167.2E 130NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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supercane
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#152 Postby supercane » Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:51 am

WTPN52 PGTW 241500
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 151024130548
2015102412 25W CHAMPI 046 01 065 16 SATL 045
T000 283N 1532E 060 R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 315N 1590E 055 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 364N 1664E 050
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 046
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 046
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 25W
<rest omitted>

WDPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR
46//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
NORTH OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION, DISPLACED OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
241110Z METOP-A 89GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH A CURVED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. OVERALL, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE METOP-A IMAGE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 25W IS TRACKING UNDER MODERATE TO
STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER, THE SHEAR
VECTOR IS PARALLEL TO THE MOTION VECTOR, WHICH IS ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO RETAIN CENTRAL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ADDITIONALLY,
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS OFFSETTING THE VWS. TS 25W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 25W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT). TS 25W WILL COMPLETE ETT NEAR TAU 24 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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#153 Postby supercane » Sat Oct 24, 2015 3:26 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 29.6N 155.5E FAIR
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 40.2N 171.8E 130NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

WTPN32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 047
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 29.6N 155.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.6N 155.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 34.0N 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 43 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 39.6N 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 30.7N 156.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 876 NM
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED DECAYING CONVECTION, DISPLACED OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE RAGGED AND ELONGATED LLCC. IT IS CLEAR THE
SYSTEM IS INTERACTING STRONGLY WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DROPPED SLIGHTLY TO 55 KNOTS TO REFLECT THE
DETERIORATION OF THE TS 25W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND TRACK RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT
COMPLETES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW BY TAU 12. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 24
FEET.//
NNNN
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#154 Postby supercane » Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:54 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 31.1N 158.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 260000UTC 42.9N 175.1E 130NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

WTPQ31 RJTD 250000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR STS 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
INTERACTION BETWEEN TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 250000 UTC IS FAIR.
STS WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 12 HOURS.=
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#155 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 25, 2015 9:01 am

WTPQ21 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER STS 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 38N 168E
MOVE NE 55KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
30KT 400NM =
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#156 Postby ConAntares » Sun Oct 25, 2015 12:40 pm

Goodbye CHAMPI~ :sun:

It witnessed the whole process of development of Patricia.
Although his name sounds very ugly in Chinese.
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