WPAC: CHAMPI - Post-Tropical

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#81 Postby NotoSans » Sun Oct 18, 2015 5:50 am

Champi is definitely undergoing RI. It may have a slight shot at Cat 5 strength before conditions deteriorate.
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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#82 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Oct 18, 2015 7:39 am

must be a "super" in JTWC's next advisory
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#83 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 18, 2015 8:08 am

Based on the NRL trackfile, JTWC might go with a super typhoon (130 kt) next advisory. It also looks like 06Z was revised upwards to 115 kt.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc15/WPAC/25W.CHAMPI/trackfile.txt
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#84 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 18, 2015 8:13 am

Classic looking.

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#85 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 18, 2015 8:37 am

WTPQ51 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 19.8N 140.2E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 21.1N 140.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 201200UTC 22.6N 140.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 211200UTC 24.7N 141.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 221200UTC 26.4N 143.9E 240NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
120HF 231200UTC 28.0N 147.6E 300NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT =

WTPQ31 RJTD 180600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 180600 UTC IS FAIR.
TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

TPPN11 PGTW 181221

A. TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI)
B. 18/1130Z
C. 19.75N
D. 140.20E
E. ONE/HIMA-8
F. T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. MET AND PT YIELD A 6.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
18/0814Z 19.43N 140.27E MMHS
18/0858Z 19.52N 140.17E WIND
18/0921Z 19.55N 140.18E SSMS

BERMEA
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#86 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 18, 2015 9:18 am

Not a Cat 5 yet, as eye needs to warm, but this is IMO around 130 knots. CDO seems to have shrunk a little and is a little ragged.
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#87 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 18, 2015 9:41 am

Eyewall replacement perhaps?

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#88 Postby NotoSans » Sun Oct 18, 2015 10:00 am

Agree that an ERC is underway.

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#89 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 18, 2015 11:39 am

WTPN52 PGTW 181500
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 151018132843
2015101812 25W CHAMPI 022 02 025 04 SATL 025
T000 199N 1402E 130 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD 160 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 206N 1402E 140 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 145 SE QD 150 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 214N 1401E 145 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 145 SE QD 145 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 222N 1401E 140 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 230N 1402E 125 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 145 SE QD 140 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 257N 1415E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 145 SE QD 140 SW QD 135 NW QD
T096 277N 1448E 075
T120 292N 1497E 055
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 022
1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 022
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 25W
<rest omitted>

WDPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR
22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS WITH A DISTINCT 28-NM EYE SURROUNDED BY AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE
CORE. AN 181017Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER EXHIBITS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
AROUND THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE EYE IN THE EIR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CYCLONE HAS
ACHIEVED SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT
SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 128 KNOTS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW SUPPORTING THE CURRENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION. STY
CHAMPI IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 25W WILL TRACK SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STEERING STR OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. BEYOND TAU
48, STY CHAMPI WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WHERE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS VWS INCREASES
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, STY CHAMPI WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN DUE TO POOR ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL START TO INTERACT WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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#90 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 18, 2015 12:36 pm

Eyewall replacement is becoming evident on IR now.

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#91 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 18, 2015 2:20 pm

WTPQ51 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 20.2N 140.3E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 21.2N 140.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 201800UTC 22.5N 139.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 211800UTC 24.4N 139.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 221800UTC 26.4N 142.6E 240NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
120HF 231800UTC 28.3N 147.8E 300NM 70%
MOVE ENE 12KT =
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#92 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 18, 2015 3:22 pm

Eyewall replacement seems to be progressing rather smoothly. However, with Champi not moving very fast, some weakening due to upwelling may be a possibility over the next few days. The water is still fairly heat laden at the moment, but it it a little lower since this is very near where Krovanh passed, and Champi could burn through it.

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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#93 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 18, 2015 3:30 pm

JTWC downgrades to typhoon with MSW down to 125kt.

WTPN52 PGTW 182100
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 151018193408
2015101818 25W CHAMPI 023 02 015 03 SATL 060
T000 202N 1403E 125 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD 160 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 208N 1403E 125 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 213N 1401E 125 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 145 SE QD 145 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 218N 1399E 120 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 225N 1398E 110 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 145 SE QD 140 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 244N 1406E 095 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 145 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 267N 1438E 075 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 005 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 293N 1503E 055
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 023
1. TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 023
DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON 25W

WDPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED EVEN AS IT
MAINTAINED A 17-NM EYE SURROUNDED BY AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN THE EIR ANIMATION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS
THE SLIGHT WEAKENING. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TY
CHAMPI IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING STR
THAT IS BUILDING. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS VWS
INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY CHAMPI WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN DUE TO POOR ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL START TO INTERACT WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#94 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 18, 2015 4:16 pm

Could be a problem for Iwo To down the road...

WDPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED EVEN AS IT
MAINTAINED A 17-NM EYE SURROUNDED BY AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN THE EIR ANIMATION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS
THE SLIGHT WEAKENING. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. TY
CHAMPI IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING STR
THAT IS BUILDING. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS VWS
INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY CHAMPI WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN DUE TO POOR ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL START TO INTERACT WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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#95 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 18, 2015 4:40 pm

Uhh, JTWC?

TPPN11 PGTW 182121

A. TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI)

B. 18/2030Z

C. 20.39N

D. 140.43E

E. ONE/HIMA-8

F. T4.5/5.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: W1.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 17NM OW EYE SURROUNDED BY
OW YIELDS AN E# OF 4.0. ADDED .5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A
DT OF 4.5. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS DUE TO
RAPID EROSION OF THE EYEWALL IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
18/1704Z 20.18N 140.27E MMHS
18/1723Z 20.25N 140.23E SSMI


UEHARA


Image

I don't know where that analysis came from.
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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#96 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 18, 2015 8:43 pm

WTPQ51 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 20.4N 140.3E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 21.3N 140.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 210000UTC 22.8N 139.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 220000UTC 24.4N 140.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 230000UTC 25.9N 143.5E 240NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
120HF 240000UTC 27.9N 147.7E 300NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT =

WTPQ31 RJTD 190000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 1525 CHAMPI (1525)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 190000 UTC IS GOOD.
TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHEAST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
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#97 Postby supercane » Sun Oct 18, 2015 9:11 pm

JTWC 03Z drops winds from 125 to 115kt, and now predicts weakening from now on instead of strengthening as prior (e.g., 15Z) forecast.

WTPN52 PGTW 190300
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 151019012412
2015101900 25W CHAMPI 024 02 015 03 SATL 015
T000 205N 1404E 115 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD 160 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 210N 1403E 115 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 215N 1401E 110 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 145 SE QD 145 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 221N 1399E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 228N 1399E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 145 SE QD 140 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 247N 1410E 095 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 145 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 269N 1447E 075 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 005 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 290N 1498E 055
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 024
<rest omitted>

WDPN32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED EVEN AS IT
MAINTAINED A 16-NM EYE SURROUNDED BY AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MSI ANIMATION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS
THE SLIGHT WEAKENING. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MOSTLY
FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DUAL OUTFLOW;
HOWEVER, THE POLEWARD CHANNEL HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE SUBSIDENT
EFFECT OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THAT IS
BUILDING. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS VWS INCREASES AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY CHAMPI WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN DUE TO POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL START TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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#98 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 18, 2015 9:26 pm

I wonder if upwelling has already begun to affect Champi. Convection has warmed considerably over the past 12 hours, but it is also going through a somewhat lengthy eyewall replacement cycle, so it's hard to tell. A clean SSMIS pass would be nice right about now to help determine.
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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#99 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 19, 2015 5:22 am

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
SURROUNDING AN 18NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS INCREASED PRESSURE ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED BASED ON AN
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND
DECREASED SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WEAKENING THE
TYPHOON. HOWEVER, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ARE PREVENTING RAPID DECAY. TY CHAMPI IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THAT IS
BUILDING. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER
DETERIORATE AS VWS INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY CHAMPI WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN DUE TO POOR ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL START TO INTERACT WITH
THE ZONAL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN A WEAK EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: CHAMPI - Typhoon

#100 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 19, 2015 5:47 am

Looks like the EWC is finished and is strengthening...

Image

Image

VMAX is at 134 knots...
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