SPAC: 02F - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
jaguarjace
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 946
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
Location: Perth, Australia

SPAC: 02F - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Oct 12, 2015 7:14 pm

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Oct 12/2207 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F CENTRE [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 9.8S 173.9E
AT 122100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON VIS MTSAT IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500 HPA. SST IS AROUND
29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

SOME GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

Image
Last edited by jaguarjace on Sun Oct 18, 2015 10:33 am, edited 3 times in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer: Any statements I make are only my opinion. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Current Storm Floaters are available here | Past Storm Floaters are available here

User avatar
jaguarjace
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 946
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
Location: Perth, Australia

Re: SPAC: 02F - Tropical Disturbance (INVEST 91P)

#2 Postby jaguarjace » Tue Oct 13, 2015 12:54 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST AREA 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.3S 174.7E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED BUT
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A 122113Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS DO
NOT SHOW DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer: Any statements I make are only my opinion. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Current Storm Floaters are available here | Past Storm Floaters are available here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11261
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 13, 2015 7:44 am

Looks like a TC to me, ableit a weak one. IMO 02F is likely the start of a long SPAC season.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18136
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: SPAC: 02F - Tropical Disturbance (INVEST 91P)

#4 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 13, 2015 8:46 am

Looks like it was sheared apart over the last 4-6 hours. Looked good on visible imagery last evening, but not anymore.
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4181
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

#5 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 14, 2015 10:32 am

Ha, after completely dropping it yesterday, JTWC is back up to medium. Looking much better for the time at least.

Image
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2855
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#6 Postby supercane » Thu Oct 15, 2015 10:46 am

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Oct 15/1023 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F CENTRE [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 12.3S 177.5E
AT 150900UTC. TD02F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR/EIR MTSAT
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION.

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF LLCC IN LAST 06
HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN
A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
TO 700HPA. SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

TXPS28 KNES 151206
TCSWSP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91P)
B. 15/1132Z
C. 12.3S
D. 177.4E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/WINDSAT/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...DT OF 2.0 BASED ON .35 BANDING. MET IS 1.5 BASED ON SLOW
WEAKENING COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
15/0623Z 12.2S 177.6E WINDSAT
15/0722Z 12.4S 177.4E SSMIS

...LIDDICK
0 likes   

User avatar
jaguarjace
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 946
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
Location: Perth, Australia

Re: SPAC: 02F - Tropical Depression (INVEST 91P)

#7 Postby jaguarjace » Thu Oct 15, 2015 10:48 am

Image
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer: Any statements I make are only my opinion. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Current Storm Floaters are available here | Past Storm Floaters are available here

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4181
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

#8 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:44 pm

JTWC has classified it as 02P now.
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2855
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

Re: SPAC: 02F - Tropical Depression (JTWC: 02P)

#9 Postby supercane » Thu Oct 15, 2015 11:19 pm

WTPS51 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02P SWP 151015190805
2015101518 02P TWO 001 01 025 02 SATL 030
T000 121S 1778E 035
T012 124S 1767E 040 R034 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 132S 1750E 045 R034 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD
T036 144S 1728E 035
T048 165S 1707E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
----
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 177.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM NORTH OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PERSISTENT BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATED
LLCC THAT HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. A 151604Z 91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE FURTHER REVEALS THE
TIGHTLY WRAPPED, COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE WESTERN QUADRANTS. A 151309 RSCAT PASS
INDICATES 30-35 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM CENTER WHILE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES REMAIN AT 2.0.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE RSCAT IMAGE
AS WELL AS THE SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND HEDGED ON THE
HIGHER END. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. TC 02P IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MIGRATE TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
45 KNOTS AS VWS IS FORECAST TO RELAX IN THE NEAR TERM. AFTER THAT TC
02P WILL THEN DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS
ALONG TRACK. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT;
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE RECENT QS MOTION OF THE SYSTEM THERE IS
CURRENTLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND
162100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN 141921 OCT 15 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW
141930).//
NNNN



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Oct 16/0316 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD02F CENTRE [1003HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9S
177.5E AT 160000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 02
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION REMAINS
PERSISTENT BUT DETACHED TO EAST OF LLCC. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO THE SOUTH DUR TO DIFFLUENT UPPER RIDGE. SST IS AROUND 28
DEGRESS CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.0, MET
AND PT AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 18 TO 30 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 13.3S 176.0E MOV WSW AT 08 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 14.5S 171.1E MOV WSW AT 09 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 16.3S 172.1E MOV SW AT 11 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 18.5S 170.7E MOV SW AT 11 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THIS NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD02F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 160800 UTC.
0 likes   

User avatar
jaguarjace
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 946
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
Location: Perth, Australia

Re: SPAC: 02F - Tropical Depression (JTWC: 02P)

#10 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Oct 16, 2015 12:00 am

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Depression

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 10 issued 0417 UTC Friday 16 October 2015

Image
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer: Any statements I make are only my opinion. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Current Storm Floaters are available here | Past Storm Floaters are available here

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2855
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

Re: SPAC: 02F - Tropical Depression (JTWC: 02P)

#11 Postby supercane » Fri Oct 16, 2015 9:43 am

ZCZC 505
WTPS11 NFFN 161200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Oct 16/1434 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F CENTRE 1002 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 176.5E
AT 161200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS IR/EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. THE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT DETACHED TO SOUTHEAST OF LLCC.
SYSTEM LIES IN MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO SOUTH OF AN UPPER
RIDGE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH DUE TO DIFFLUENT UPPER RIDGE. SST AROUND
AROUND 28 DEGREE CELSIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP YIELDS DT2.0, MET AND PAT AGREE.
THUS YIELDING T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARD WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 30 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 14.5S 174.6E MOV SW AT 10KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 16.1S 172.7E MOV SW AT 12KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 17.9S 171.2E MOV SW AT 12KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 19.6S 170.3E MOV SSW AT 10 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 160800 UTC.


NNNN
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18136
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: SPAC: 02F - Tropical Depression (JTWC: 02P)

#12 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 16, 2015 10:46 am

A recent ASCAT pass indicated winds to 40kts south of the center. Fiji should be upgrading it on the next advisory. I think the next name on their list is "Tuni".
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2855
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

Re: SPAC: 02F - Tropical Depression (JTWC: 02P)

#13 Postby supercane » Fri Oct 16, 2015 3:54 pm

ZCZC 234
WTPS11 NFFN 161800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Oct 16/2021 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F CENTRE 1002 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 176.7E
AT 161800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR/EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. THE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT DETACHED TO SOUTHEAST OF LLCC.
SYSTEM LIES IN MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS MOVING TO AREA OF
INCREASING SHEAR. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH DUE TO DIFFLUENT UPPER RIDGE.
SST AROUND AROUND 28 DEGREE CELSIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP YIELDS DT2.0, MET AND PAT AGREE.
THUS YIELDING T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND AGREE ON ITS SOUTHWESTWARD
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 30 HOURS IS MODERATE.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 15.8S 173.6E MOV SW AT 13KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 17.9S 172.0E MOV SW AT 13KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 20.2S 171.4E MOV SSW AT 12KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 21.7S 171.8E MOV SSW AT 11 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 170200 UTC.


NNNN
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2855
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

Re: SPAC: 02F - Tropical Depression (JTWC: 02P)

#14 Postby supercane » Fri Oct 16, 2015 3:54 pm

WTPS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 14.2S 175.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 175.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.0S 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.2S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.6S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 174.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PULSING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATED AND COMPACT
LLCC. A 161757Z AMSU-B IMAGE REVEALS THE TIGHT WRAPPING OF THE LLCC
AS WELL AS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A 161023Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES 35-45 KT WIND
BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE RANGE FROM 2.0-2.5, RESPECTIVELY. THE
INITIAL POSITIONS OF THE STORM IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
ASCAT PASS AND FIXES AND HEDGED ON THE HIGHER END AT 40 KTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 02P IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THE CURRENT FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS, HOWEVER INCREASING VWS
THEREAFTER WILL LEAD TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 36
HOURS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.
//
NNNN
0 likes   

User avatar
jaguarjace
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 946
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
Location: Perth, Australia

Re: SPAC: 02F - Tropical Depression (JTWC: 02P)

#15 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Oct 16, 2015 7:11 pm

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Depression

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 13 issued 2151 UTC Friday 16 October 2015

Image
Image
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer: Any statements I make are only my opinion. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Current Storm Floaters are available here | Past Storm Floaters are available here

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18136
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: SPAC: 02F - Tropical Depression (JTWC: 02P)

#16 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 16, 2015 7:18 pm

I guess the Fiji met office isn't using ASCAT imagery.
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2855
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#17 Postby supercane » Fri Oct 16, 2015 9:03 pm

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Oct 17/0200 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F CENTRE [1002 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S
174.8E AT 170000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR/VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. THE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHWEST
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT DETACHED TO SOUTHEAST OF LLCC.
SYSTEM LIES IN MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS MOVING TO AREA OF
INCREASING SHEAR. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH DUE TO DIFFLUENT UPPER RIDGE.
SYSTEM IS STEERED TOWARDS SOUTHWEST BY NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW. SST AROUND AROUND 27 DEGREE CELSIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 WRAP YIELDS DT2.0, MET AND PAT AGREE.
THUS YIELDING T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND AGREE ON ITS SOUTHWESTWARD
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 17.8S 173.0E MOV SW AT 13KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 20.0S 171.7E MOV SW AT 13KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 21.7S 171.4E MOV SSW AT 11KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC 22.7S 171.6E MOV SSW AT 09KT WITH 20 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 170800 UTC.
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2855
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

Re: SPAC: 02F - Tropical Depression (JTWC: 02P)

#18 Postby supercane » Sat Oct 17, 2015 8:03 am

ZCZC 485
WTPS11 NFFN 170600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Oct 17/0745 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F CENTRE 1002HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 173.7E
AT 170600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR/VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. THE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 11 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT DETACHED TO SOUTH OF LLCC.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. OUTFLOW FAIR
TO SOUTH DUE TO DIFFLUENT UPPER RIDGE. SST AROUND AROUND 28 DEGREE
CELSIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP YIELDS DT2.0, MET AND PAT AGREE.
THUS YIELDING T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARD WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 18.0S 172.0E MOV SSW AT 11 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 20.0S 171.0E MOV SW AT 10 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 21.4S 170.9E MOV S AT 08 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC 22.0S 171.4E MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 171400 UTC.


NNNN

WTPS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 173.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 173.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.5S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.8S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 172.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 170316Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH LIMITED
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 35
KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE CURRENT WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE SEEN IN THE ABOVE
IMAGERY. TC 02P IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE STILL CONDUCIVE AT 28 CELSIUS. TC
02P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY BEFORE MOVING INTO A REGION OF HIGH VWS AND
COOLING SSTS WHICH WILL LEAD TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
172100Z and 180900Z.//
NNNN
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2855
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#19 Postby supercane » Sat Oct 17, 2015 9:34 am

ZCZC 085
WTPS11 NFFN 171200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Oct 17/1418 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F CENTRE [1001HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7S
174.1E AT 171200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. THE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT DETACHED TO SOUTH OF LLCC.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. OUTFLOW FAIR
TO SOUTH DUE TO DIFFLUENT UPPER RIDGE. SST AROUND AROUND 28 DEGREE
CELSIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP YIELDS DT2.0, MET AND PAT AGREE.
THUS YIELDING T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARD WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 19.0S 172.8E MOV SSW AT 13 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 20.0S 172.7E MOV SSW AT 11 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC 21.8S 173.3E MOV S AT 09 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC 22.1S 174.0E MOV S AT 07 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 172000 UTC.


NNNN
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2855
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

Re: SPAC: 02F - Tropical Depression (JTWC: 02P)

#20 Postby supercane » Sat Oct 17, 2015 5:34 pm

Final advisories on this system from both RSMC Nadi and JTWC.
ZCZC 372
WTPS11 NFFN 171800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Oct 17/1951 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F CENTRE [1004HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3S
173.8E AT 171800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARDS AT ABOUT 16
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND SHEARED FROM LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS NOT
IMPROVED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER
RIDGE IN HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW FAIR TO THE SOUTH BUT
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 26 DEGREE CELSIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.2 WRAP YIELDS DT 1.5, MET AND PT AGREES.
THUS YIELDING T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARD WITH
NO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS LOW.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 20.6S 173.4E MOV S AT 12 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 22.1S 174.1E MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 20
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC 22.8S 175.3E MOV ESE AT 07 KT WITH 20
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 191800 UTC 22.9S 176.4E MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 20
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY FOR TD02F.


NNNN


WTPS51 PGTW 172100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02P SWP 151017190041
2015101718 02P TWO 005 01 205 19 SATL 025
T000 188S 1715E 030
T012 218S 1714E 025
AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 18.8S 171.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 171.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.8S 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 171.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z
IS 10 FEET.//
0215101300 99S1744E 30
0215101306 116S1744E 30
0215101312 133S1747E 30
0215101318 144S1752E 30
0215101400 141S1761E 30
0215101406 128S1762E 30
0215101412 116S1756E 30
0215101418 123S1757E 30
0215101500 123S1771E 30
0215101506 124S1775E 30
0215101512 123S1777E 30
0215101518 121S1778E 35
0215101600 122S1776E 35
0215101606 131S1771E 35
0215101612 134S1764E 35
0215101618 142S1753E 40
0215101700 151S1743E 35
0215101706 161S1732E 35
0215101712 171S1723E 35
0215101718 188S1715E 30
NNNN
0 likes   


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests