ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#21 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Oct 16, 2015 3:56 pm

Throw climo out this is a totally different pattern this year something we don't see to often heck nothing might not even form but all this climo talk lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#22 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Oct 16, 2015 3:58 pm

If high pressure is strong in se us it can't go to Far East with a cold front approaching and trough going to suck it up
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#23 Postby ROCK » Fri Oct 16, 2015 4:06 pm

the GFDL and HWRF have yet to run this invest. interesting to see if anything comes of this as far as development. Still plenty warm in the GOM.


http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#24 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 16, 2015 5:46 pm

GFS keeps the system over land for all but 12 hours as it passes from Brownsville to Corpus. I'd say overall less than 10% chance of anything but rain coming of it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#25 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 16, 2015 5:50 pm

Hammy wrote:GFS keeps the system over land for all but 12 hours as it passes from Brownsville to Corpus. I'd say overall less than 10% chance of anything but rain coming of it.


I honestly have no idea, but with Joaquin the GFS went west, the euro went west, then the euro corrected back east and it took a while for the GFS to follow. The GFS has been pretty bad at either slamming things into the coast or showing systems over land when in fact they end up well east of the forecast. I suspect euro will swing back east, but I have to wonder if anything will really come of this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#26 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Oct 16, 2015 5:54 pm

That high in se looks mighty mighty strong
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#27 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 16, 2015 6:12 pm

tolakram wrote:
Hammy wrote:GFS keeps the system over land for all but 12 hours as it passes from Brownsville to Corpus. I'd say overall less than 10% chance of anything but rain coming of it.


I honestly have no idea, but with Joaquin the GFS went west, the euro went west, then the euro corrected back east and it took a while for the GFS to follow. The GFS has been pretty bad at either slamming things into the coast or showing systems over land when in fact they end up well east of the forecast. I suspect euro will swing back east, but I have to wonder if anything will really come of this.


If anything I see the Joaquin comparison to mean a more westward track in this case--GFS (as well as early Euro) had it going into the NE because it over-estimated the intensity of the low pressure to the west (as well as the distance between the two). I think that is the same case where both models are assuming pressures will be lower, but in this case it'll mean it's pushed into land rather than escaping a cutoff low.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#28 Postby ronjon » Fri Oct 16, 2015 7:31 pm

It's 8-9 days out on track. Enjoy you're weekend and check back Monday, lol. If you're playing the odds this far out, look for gradual adjustments to the east.
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#29 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 16, 2015 11:57 pm

Latest GFS barely develops anything as it keeps the low pretty much over land, and it gets strung out by a frontal system after that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#30 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 17, 2015 12:03 am

OMG, the 0Z GFS brings the low back down to the NW Caribbean and then on the 2nd go round it takes the classic path NE from there and just misses S FL way out on 10/31 with a H!! Might this be farm betting potential?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#31 Postby Hammy » Sat Oct 17, 2015 12:19 am

LarryWx wrote:OMG, the 0Z GFS brings the low back down to the NW Caribbean and then on the 2nd go round it takes the classic path NE from there and just misses S FL way out on 10/31 with a H!! Might this be farm betting potential?


GFS is determined at any cost to throw a storm of some kind at Florida/Cuba in October. :lol:
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Re: Re:

#32 Postby La Breeze » Sat Oct 17, 2015 12:20 am

Sambucol wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Yep, Euro 216 hrs.

Image

I'll be surprised if that happens!! Rain is fine. But not an organized storm!

Agreed - rain is fine, but nothing organized. We have to remember that the shear is expected to be quite strong, so it may get ripped apart if it does form. Any word on the expected shear?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#33 Postby stormlover2013 » Sat Oct 17, 2015 12:21 am

I just don't see anything developing been getting prolonged on each run...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#34 Postby La Breeze » Sat Oct 17, 2015 12:23 am

stormlover2013 wrote:I just don't see anything developing been getting prolonged on each run...

I don't either stormlover, but let's hope that we get some moisture out of whatever may be there. :rain:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#35 Postby stormlover2013 » Sat Oct 17, 2015 12:26 am

I hope we can atleast get some rain but heck who knows been a weird pattern just year
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#36 Postby Hammy » Sat Oct 17, 2015 12:27 am

Euro run begins in about a half hour, I'm expecting a decent westward (and weaker) shift with that run since development is trending more into the Pacific only.
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Re:

#37 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 17, 2015 12:31 am

Hammy wrote:Euro run begins in about a half hour, I'm expecting a decent westward (and weaker) shift with that run since development is trending more into the Pacific only.


The 0Z CMC has a 2nd NW Carib low day 10 in position to maybe give a run at FL. Time to pop popcorn for the King though I'm tempted to take a catnap instead.
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#38 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Oct 17, 2015 12:46 am

0zGFS has some crazy rainfall totals thru day 10 for South Texas! :eek:

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#39 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 17, 2015 1:19 am

The 0Z GEFS has a lot of members with a NW C low very late in the run!

The 0Z EC sure has a much weaker EPAC low. Will that affect rest of run?
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#40 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 17, 2015 1:47 am

Euro hugs Mexico/Texas coasts.
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