EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

the Weather Channel's reporting they can no longer reach the iCyclone crew.

No surprise given this was a Category 5 landfall after all.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1000 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

...PATRICIA WEAKENING BUT REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
MAJOR HURRICANE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 104.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES

[brunota2003]

I just wanted to let you guys know that per calculations done by Jim Edds on Twitter, it would appear that the official landfall point given by the NHC is exactly 2.8 miles to the NE from where Josh (icyclone) and Erik hunkered down at. From what Jim was saying, Josh also had 3 Kestrels with him, which means that there will be plenty of data to Quality Control with.

[Ptarmigan]

Part of me is not surprised that Patricia became a Category 5 hurricane. I am stunned that it bottomed out at 879 millibars and had 200 mph winds!


I am very concerned for Mexico.

[supercane]

WTPZ45 KNHC 240244
TCDEP5

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1000 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

Satellite and surface data indicate that the center of Patricia made
landfall at about 615 PM CDT (2315 UTC) near Cuixmala, Mexico with
maximum sustained winds estimated at 145 kt/165 mph. Since that
time, the eye has become obscured, with a large circular area of
deep convection continuing near the center. The initial wind speed
is reduced to 115 kt in agreement with the TAFB Dvorak
classification. Rapid weakening should continue as the cyclone
interacts with the mountains of Mexico. The forecast intensity is
largely based on the Decay-SHIPS model, but is a little lower than
that model due to the very high terrain. Patricia should move to
the north-northeast and northeast ahead of a mid-level trough over
the south-central United States until it dissipates in a day or so.

The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend and this system should be
non-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to draw
significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could
result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer to
statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for
details.

An unconfirmed sustained wind report of 185 mph and a gust to 211
mph was received from a NOAA/NWS Hydrometeorological Automated Data
System (HADS) elevated station (295 ft) at Chamela-Cuixmala, Mexico
near the time of landfall. This observation should be considered
unofficial until it has been quality controlled.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Now that Patricia has moved inland, while the coastal threat is
decreasing, strong and damaging winds, especially at higher
elevations, will persist through Saturday morning.

2. Very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides in the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco,
Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero through Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 20.2N 104.6W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND
12H 24/1200Z 22.7N 103.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 25/0000Z 25.0N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake/Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

Can you post those please? After a lifetime of doing this sort of thing and being invested in forecasting and tropical cyclones, who knows, there could be some tears being shed right as we type all this.

Old, but:

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12?lang=en

[dixiebreeze]

My daughter just reported from Lake Chapala, Jalisco (Guadalaharja). Said 1 inch of water in house so far, but house is solid brick and she feels secure. Said Patricia is passing right over her. Said she is amazed she still has internet!

[dixiebreeze]

A prayer or two sent her way wouldn't hurt.....

[asd123]

As I know hurricanes churn out incredible warmth into the atmosphere. For example, I looked at other hurricanes (weaker ones) where they hit. They brought 500 mb temps from an average -6C to 0C.

This powerful hurricane caused 710 mb temps to soar to 32.2C! https://twitter.com/splillo/status/657618453012975616

To put this into perspective, around this area it seems 700 mb temps are between 10 and 15 degrees(out of boundary, educated assumption, plus 710 mb close to 700): http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... b&hour=000

710 mb height was about 1km lower than usual.

[DPTX]

Prayers for your daughter, Dixiebreeze, as well as all others in harms way.

[dixiebreeze]

Thank you DPTX. Just spoke with her again and she is doing ok so far.

[ozonepete]

Thank you DPTX. Just spoke with her again and she is doing ok so far.

Same here, Dixie. Send her our best from storm2k. She should be ok as long as she stays inside until the winds die down.

[ozonepete]

Has there been any contact with Josh?

[WeatherGuesser]

From VisibleEarth: http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=86882




More images on the page above.

[WeatherGuesser]

I've got a series of close-detail 'After' images of Biloxi and Gulfport in '05 that show building level detail, but I don't remember where I got them. I thought they were from one of the Modis sites, but I can't find anything similar yet.

Edit -- found an old bookmark: http://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/eri_page/index.html

Looks to be US only though. Won't be anything for this storm.

[jasons2k]

What an amazing day. I've been surprised by a number of things about Patricia. One of them being -- nobody saw that this would become the strongest storm in this hemisphere. Truly a historic moment. Like many of you, my feelings have vacillated between extreme excitement and fascination with such an amazing meteorological & historical event and at other moments, deep and reflective sadness; almost despair at what must be happening along the Mexican coast tonight.

It's going to be a dicey few days with flooding in Texas and severe weather upstream from there. I'm really concerned right now about the flooding potential for the Houston metro area.

I cannot emphasize enough that the #1 killer of tropical cyclones is inland flooding.

If you have a minute, whatever your beliefs are, take some time tonight for a moment of silence or prayer for those folks out there dealing with a real disaster on their hands. Pray that they come through this historic event safely and OK.

[Sanibel]

here's a weather station near the landfall point. note some of the gusts (flagged as suspect) http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman ... type=LOCAL

211mph gust recorded by that station with instrument failures for the previous 12 readings.

[supercane4867]

That wind report at landfall is extremely impressive, comparable to some highest sustained wind ever observed on land.

[Sanibel]

Geesh I can't imagine what some of those poorly-built Mexican dwellings are like now. That is a weak side reading at that location unless it wobbled really far left. That station had 162mph sustained. You can imagine what the business quadrant delivered by the coast.

[WeatherGuesser]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
100 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...PATRICIA WEAKENING BUT STILL A STRONG HURRICANE AS IT MOVES
FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 104.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...75 KM N OF APOZOLCO MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF ZACATECAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES




< snip >




DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 104.0 West. Patricia is
moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). Patricia is
forecast to move quickly north-northeastward farther inland over
northern and northeastern Mexico during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 2 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is expected to
continue, and Patricia is forecast to become a tropical storm
later this morning, and a tropical depression this afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.64 inches).