EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[zeehag]

way too exciting. i musta gone to wrong camp this summer.........
this is waaay tooo close....

[cycloneye]

Wow.Really impressive.

[Yellow Evan]

way too exciting. i musta gone to wrong camp this summer.........
this is waaay tooo close....

Looking at your location, there is a chance you go be dealing with the direct hit of a Category 3 or 4 hurricane. If I were you, I'd listen very closely to local authorities and consider evacuating to shelters.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 OCT 2015 Time : 221500 UTC
Lat : 13:10:17 N Lon : 99:47:05 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1002.0mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.1 4.5

Center Temp : -82.2C Cloud Region Temp : -79.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

[1900hurricane]

A core is definitely starting to develop.

[Kingarabian]

A core is definitely starting to develop.

[img]http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc15/EPAC/20E.PATRICIA/tc_ssmis/91h/1degreeticks/20151021.2224.f16.x.91h_1deg.20EPATRICIA.40kts-999mb-130N-986W.76pc.jpg[img]

We're about to see some serious rapid intensification if it keeps up.

[cycloneye]

Up to 55kts.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
700 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

...PATRICIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 99.9W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 OCT 2015 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 13:12:13 N Lon : 99:53:14 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1001.9mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.2 4.5

Center Temp : -81.0C Cloud Region Temp : -80.2C

[EquusStorm]

Gotta say, knowing the expected path, the storm structure is really unnerving. Seen way too many intensity skyrockets in situations like this in the epac. That said, really, flooding will be the big problem no matter how strong the storm gets. Just with some added coastal destruction, perhaps. Hope the core comes in between and away from significant city centers... or really, a part of the coastline that is less surge and erosion prone to limit damage.

[cycloneye]

Majority of models are at consensus for a near Manzanillo hit and intensity continues to creep up.

[zeehag]

Gotta say, knowing the expected path, the storm structure is really unnerving. Seen way too many intensity skyrockets in situations like this in the epac. That said, really, flooding will be the big problem no matter how strong the storm gets. Just with some added coastal destruction, perhaps. Hope the core comes in between and away from significant city centers... or really, a part of the coastline that is less surge and erosion prone to limit damage.

seeems to be aimed directly at barra de navidad.
thee town is a beach town, with beachfront gonna be damaged hotels and restaurants.
where i am is isla navidad, in marina at the base of the hill, in a protected area in the protected somewhat lagoon. the town of barra will be damaged from the bahia navidad side of town. colimilla is inside lagoon, as is isla navidad. we may be ok. even with a strong slam. but barra and melaque will suffer damages.
a hit to the loong beach between santiago bay and barra is a good place for a hit, as it is mainly ejidos, and unoccupied beach.

[1900hurricane]

Here we go.

[Yellow Evan]

Gotta say, knowing the expected path, the storm structure is really unnerving. Seen way too many intensity skyrockets in situations like this in the epac. That said, really, flooding will be the big problem no matter how strong the storm gets. Just with some added coastal destruction, perhaps. Hope the core comes in between and away from significant city centers... or really, a part of the coastline that is less surge and erosion prone to limit damage.

seeems to be aimed directly at barra de navidad.
thee town is a beach town, with beachfront gonna be damaged hotels and restaurants.
where i am is isla navidad, in marina at the base of the hill, in a protected area in the protected somewhat lagoon. the town of barra will be damaged from the bahia navidad side of town. colimilla is inside lagoon, as is isla navidad. we may be ok. even with a strong slam. but barra and melaque will suffer damages.
a hit to the loong beach between santiago bay and barra is a good place for a hit, as it is mainly ejidos, and unoccupied beach.

I'm thinking so far landfall will be between the Jalisco/Colima border and Emiliano Zapata for now, or southern Jalisco. Looking at Google maps, it's not exactly where I'd want to be during a Category 3/4/5 hurricane. If I were you, I'd consider evacuating.

[Yellow Evan]

Here we go.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 220115.GIF

That's not an eye. The LLC is at the eastern edge of the CDG.

[1900hurricane]

Here we go.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 220115.GIF

That's not an eye. The LLC is at the eastern edge of the CDG.

I'd be surprised if it's on the eastern edge. The low level center should be more on the western side of the CDO, near the notch, which would line up well with previous microwave passes.

[dexterlabio]

That's certainly a developing eye to me with deep convection wrapping nicely to the eye..just like Koppu did last week. I don't know if EPAC has a record of having canes bombing to a Cat3-4 just off the coast but if this keeps up I think that'd be very possible.

[cycloneye]

Now peaks at100kts.


TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

The convective cloud pattern of Patricia has improved significantly
since the previous advisory. A large CDO feature and a pronounced
curved convective band in the western semicircle has developed, and
a primitive eye feature has been noted in recent passive microwave
imagery. The last report from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicated a SFMR surface wind value of 56 kt, which arrived
after the previous advisory had been issued. That data, along with a
2056Z UW-CIMSS AMSU intensity estimate of 59 kt and the improved
satellite appearance, is the justification for increasing the
intensity to a conservative 55 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt. The new forecast track is
similar to the previous advisory track except to widen the turn
toward the northwest slightly in 24-36 hours. The new 18Z GFS model
shifted slightly westward and is now very close to the ECMWF
solution. As a result, the official forecast track has been nudged
slightly westward at the 24-, 36-, and 48-hours, which delays
landfall by another 6 hours or so. Otherwise, the track forecast
reasoning remains unchanged. Patricia is expected to move
west-northwestward along the south side of a deep-layer ridge over
the Gulf of Mexico for the next 24 hours, followed by a
gradual turn toward the northwest, and a turn toward the north at
36-48 hours. The model guidance remains in excellent agreement on
this track scenario, and the official forecast lies between the
GFS-ECMWF (GFEX) and TVCE consensus model tracks.

The improved organization of Patricia along with favorable
environmental and oceanic conditions consisting of low vertical
wind shear of less than 5 kt, a very moist mid-level environment,
SSTs in excess of 30 deg C, and high upper-ocean heat content values
in excess of 60 units support rapid intensification of the tropical
cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN
consensus model through 24 hours and then is above the consensus
after that, following a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. The
justification for going above the IVCN consensus is due to the low
bias caused by the HWRF model, which moves Patricia inland sooner,
resulting in a much lower intensity at 48 hours. As a result, rapid
intensification is explicitly forecast for the next 36 hours, making
Patricia a major hurricane by the end of that period. The intensity
is then leveled off at 48 hours due to the possibility of modest
southerly wind shear and some land interaction affecting the cyclone
as Patricia nears the coast of southwestern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 13.5N 100.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 14.2N 102.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 15.5N 103.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 17.0N 104.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 19.0N 105.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 24.1N 103.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

I'd be surprised if it's on the eastern edge. The low level center should be more on the western side of the CDO, near the notch, which would line up well with previous microwave passes.

Would support a center near 99.5W then (a little east of warm spot) but that is an old pass.

[1900hurricane]

Patricia is really ripping the deep convection now that the sun is down. I don't remember the last time I've seen tops below -90*C (whites in image attached) this far east in the Pacific.

[1900hurricane]

For a good laugh, check out the October 22 0145Z raw T spit out by CIMSS ADT.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/20E-list.txt