EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#1321 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 24, 2015 5:27 am

Satellite and surface data indicate that the center of Patricia made
landfall at about 615 PM CDT (2315 UTC) near Cuixmala, Mexico with
maximum sustained winds estimated at 145 kt/165 mph.


I'm sure nothing much is left from this beautiful resort in Cuixmala, what a shame.
I hope people in these little villages were able to get into stronger shelters prior to the storm.

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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#1322 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 24, 2015 6:20 am

Meanwhile just a few miles away in Puerto Vallarta the highest winds that I could find officially at the airport was less than 15 mph. The Mountains protected them besides Patricia's hurricane windfield being small.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Tropical Storm

#1323 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 24, 2015 6:55 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
700 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...PATRICIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 102.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM...NE OF ZACATECAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Tropical Storm

#1324 Postby tolakram » Sat Oct 24, 2015 7:07 am

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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#1325 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 24, 2015 7:33 am

bamajammer4eva wrote:When people say this was the strongest Hurricane ever they are right. However wasn't Typhoon Tip stronger?


Strongest Hurricane in the Western Hemisphere.

Remember Patricia got lucky it had recon. Recon ended in 1987 over here and there are way more typhoons more impressive than Patricia and for a longer time.

Patricia was a freak of a hurricane that got into levels and records normally seen in Super Typhoons and probrably the only one from the WHemisphere.

So i think it isn't wise to compare Patricia to post recon typhoons and record holder STY Tip when recon isn't available anymore.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Tropical Storm

#1326 Postby tolakram » Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:02 am

Strongest HURRICANE, not typhoon. :) Play on words to make headlines.
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#1327 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:08 am

I heard some people question if this was actually still a Cat.5 at landfall?
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Re:

#1328 Postby tolakram » Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:11 am

TheStormExpert wrote:I heard some people question if this was actually still a Cat.5 at landfall?


It was dropping fast due to the mountains, we've seen slower moving storms completely dissipate as they get close to the coast, but the forward speed was fast enough I expect someone experienced cat 5 winds.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#1329 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:28 am

NDG wrote:Meanwhile just a few miles away in Puerto Vallarta the highest winds that I could find officially at the airport was less than 15 mph. The Mountains protected them besides Patricia's hurricane windfield being small.


obs may have been suspended during the storm
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#1330 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:30 am

euro6208 wrote:
bamajammer4eva wrote:When people say this was the strongest Hurricane ever they are right. However wasn't Typhoon Tip stronger?


Strongest Hurricane in the Western Hemisphere.

Remember Patricia got lucky it had recon. Recon ended in 1987 over here and there are way more typhoons more impressive than Patricia and for a longer time.

Patricia was a freak of a hurricane that got into levels and records normally seen in Super Typhoons and probrably the only one from the WHemisphere.

So i think it isn't wise to compare Patricia to post recon typhoons and record holder STY Tip when recon isn't available anymore.


from the recon we did have in 2010, WPAC storms typically don't have pressures much lower. We can surmise that the traditional P/W relationships were inaccurate. What we had was a storm forming from a monsoon trough. These hurricanes/typhoons will have lower pressures than others. It's not the basin. It's the type of genesis and its surrounding environment that determines the P/W relationship
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Tropical Depression

#1331 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 24, 2015 9:38 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

Patricia continues to weaken rapidly over the mountains of central
Mexico. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that
the mid- to upper-level center is now displaced to the northeast of
the surface center, and there is little organized convection
associated with the cyclone. The initial intensity is reduced to
30 kt based mainly on surface observations, and this could be
generous. Patricia is likely to degenerate to a remnant low or
trough during the next 6-12 hours as it moves northeastward into
northeastern Mexico.

A low pressure area is developing over southern Texas, with the
system forecast to move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico later
in the weekend. This system should be non-tropical in nature.
However, the low is likely to absorb the remnants of Patricia along
with the associated moisture, and this is expected to result in
locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico coastal area. Refer to statements from local National
Weather Service forecast offices for details on this system.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Even though Patricia is weakening rapidly, continued very heavy
rainfall is likely to cause life- threatening flash floods and
mudslides in the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima,
Michoacan and Guerrero through today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 23.9N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 26.0N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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#1332 Postby talkon » Sat Oct 24, 2015 9:47 am

Looks like this will hold the record of fastest weakening ever too. 879mb to 1000mb in 18 hours
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Tropical Depression

#1333 Postby karenfromheaven » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:02 am

Any word yet from Josh Morgerman and the landfall area?
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Tropical Depression

#1334 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:13 am

Not yet.Hopefully he is fine and reports soon.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#1335 Postby blp » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:17 am

Alyono wrote:
euro6208 wrote:
bamajammer4eva wrote:When people say this was the strongest Hurricane ever they are right. However wasn't Typhoon Tip stronger?


Strongest Hurricane in the Western Hemisphere.

Remember Patricia got lucky it had recon. Recon ended in 1987 over here and there are way more typhoons more impressive than Patricia and for a longer time.

Patricia was a freak of a hurricane that got into levels and records normally seen in Super Typhoons and probrably the only one from the WHemisphere.


So i think it isn't wise to compare Patricia to post recon typhoons and record holder STY Tip when recon isn't available anymore.


from the recon we did have in 2010, WPAC storms typically don't have pressures much lower. We can surmise that the traditional P/W relationships were inaccurate. What we had was a storm forming from a monsoon trough. These hurricanes/typhoons will have lower pressures than others. It's not the basin. It's the type of genesis and its surrounding environment that determines the P/W relationship


Great post. I hear a lot of those comments about WPAC Typhoons being stronger. I had heard before that the pressure relationship is different so you cannot just do a straight comparison just on pressure. No question Typoons last longer and more frequent due to the vast expanse of warm water available.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#1336 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:22 am

blp wrote:
Alyono wrote:from the recon we did have in 2010, WPAC storms typically don't have pressures much lower. We can surmise that the traditional P/W relationships were inaccurate. What we had was a storm forming from a monsoon trough. These hurricanes/typhoons will have lower pressures than others. It's not the basin. It's the type of genesis and its surrounding environment that determines the P/W relationship


Great post. I hear a lot of those comments about WPAC Typhoons being stronger. I had heard before that the pressure relationship is different so you cannot just do a straight comparison just on pressure. No question Typoons last longer and more frequent due to the vast expanse of warm water available.


Monsoonal trough storms in the WPAC likely have low pressures as well. However that didn't apply in the case of Megi in 2010, and likely didn't apply in the case of Haiyan in 2013 based on the limited data available either (from surface observations).

The outermost closed isobar in Patricia was 1004mb, which is very low.
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#1337 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:27 am

I'll likely do a Best Track tonight (based on my own analysis), but here are some key points that I believe (before looking at the fixes):

* Peak intensity I believe was at 1200Z yesterday between posts. At this time, I am analyzing 180 kt as the peak intensity with a pressure of 875.

* It likely weakened slightly between 1200Z and 1800Z (when Recon found 879) then weakened rapidly afterward in agreement with satellite and Recon. A non-synoptic 2100Z point will be necessary to show the changes.

* Landfall at 2315Z I have estimated at 140 kt, with a pressure of 918, based on the previous Recon data, continued weakening and that station data (using the Schloemer equation was the basis for that pressure). It likely weakened below Cat 5 shortly after landfall at 0000Z.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Tropical Depression

#1338 Postby blp » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:31 am

As part of another topic I guess or thread it would be interested to know which basin has the most TCHP on average because I suspect Western Carribean has to be up there among the top. And yes Wilma formed from a monsoon trough so that theroy is very good in what really adds the juice to make these systems so intense.
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Re:

#1339 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:51 am

ConAntares wrote:I think we may have a systematic underestimate on those intense storms which have not been measured!
Such as SP192005Olaf and Typhoon Dianmu(2004), They are very similar to Patricia.


Yep, as this recon, along with recon form Jagami, Megi, and Allen, and various studies suggest a low bias with storms T7.0 or higher.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane: History is made

#1340 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:57 am

ConAntares wrote:
bamajammer4eva wrote:When people say this was the strongest Hurricane ever they are right. However wasn't Typhoon Tip stronger?



Ty Gay(1992), Ty Haiyan Ty Andy(1989), Ty Yuri(1991), and Haiyan are likely stronger than Tyhoon Tip based on satellite cloud image analysis.

Image
Typhoon Tip(1979)

Image
Typhoon Andy(1989)

Image
Typhoon Yuri(1991)

Image
Typhoon Gay(1992)

Image
Typhoon Haiyan(2013)


Patricia is definitely up there.

I'd say Haiyan is 185 knots, Gay is around 180 knots, while the other two look around 170 knots. All clearly T8.0.
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