EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

#1361 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 24, 2015 3:43 pm

There's an article saying "little damage reported" with a photo showing a masonary house that is completely in rubble.



(Don't hurt our tourism)
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#1362 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Oct 24, 2015 4:15 pm

There goes a legend. The post analysis will be interesting to read in how strong did it really get.
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#1363 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 24, 2015 4:24 pm

We should be fortunate the intense core focused on an area with relatively little population. This is very similar to after Hurricane Dean, where the core went into a remote area and no one was killed on the Yucatan.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

#1364 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 24, 2015 4:48 pm

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is completely unofficial. However, here is what I would set as the best track for Patricia.

EP202015, PATRICIA, 18,
20151020, 1200, , TD, 13.3N, 94.2W, 30, 1008,
20151020, 1800, , TS, 13.3N, 94.6W, 35, 1006,
20151021, 0000, , TS, 13.1N, 95.1W, 40, 1004,
20151021, 0600, , TS, 12.9N, 96.3W, 40, 1003,
20151021, 1200, , TS, 12.9N, 97.4W, 45, 1001,
20151021, 1800, , TS, 13.1N, 98.7W, 55, 996,
20151022, 0000, , HU, 13.4N, 100.1W, 65, 989,
20151022, 0600, , HU, 14.0N, 101.7W, 80, 980,
20151022, 1200, , HU, 14.7N, 103.2W, 95, 968,
20151022, 1800, , HU, 15.1N, 104.1W, 120, 956,
20151023, 0000, , HU, 15.8N, 104.9W, 150, 921,
20151023, 0600, , HU, 16.5N, 105.4W, 175, 886,
20151023, 1200, , HU, 17.2N, 105.6W, 180, 875,
20151023, 1800, , HU, 18.2N, 105.3W, 170, 879,
20151023, 2100, T, HU, 18.8N, 105.1W, 150, 902,
20151023, 2315, L, HU, 19.4N, 105.0W, 140, 918,
20151024, 0000, , HU, 19.6N, 104.9W, 130, 922,
20151024, 0600, , HU, 21.6N, 103.8W, 85, 970,
20151024, 1200, , TS, 23.2N, 102.3W, 45, 996,
20151024, 1800, , LO, 24.7N, 101.3W, 25, 1005,
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Re:

#1365 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 24, 2015 4:50 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:We should be fortunate the intense core focused on an area with relatively little population. This is very similar to after Hurricane Dean, where the core went into a remote area and no one was killed on the Yucatan.


Imagine if Acapulco was in the bulls eye.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

#1366 Postby Hammy » Sat Oct 24, 2015 4:56 pm

Any reports from the hardest hit areas?
Last edited by Hammy on Sat Oct 24, 2015 4:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

#1367 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 24, 2015 4:57 pm

Hammy wrote:So they're going with the 182kt VDM for the peak?


I believe the peak was *between* the Recon passes at 1200Z.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

#1368 Postby Hammy » Sat Oct 24, 2015 4:58 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Hammy wrote:So they're going with the 182kt VDM for the peak?


I believe the peak was *between* the Recon passes at 1200Z.


Edited my question as I was skimming and just noticed it wasn't official BT data :oops:
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

#1369 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 24, 2015 4:58 pm

Hammy wrote:Any reports from the hardest hit areas?


None at this time. I've heard from San Patricio (where the damage looked typical for a mid-level hurricane) but that was outside the core.
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#1370 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 24, 2015 6:47 pm

This so makes me wish that Recon had gone into Haiyan in 2013...I can only imagine what they would have found, maybe an SFMR reading over 200 knots?
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

#1371 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 24, 2015 6:51 pm

Patricia is a demon. It is pumping black IR off the Gulf Of Mexico as we speak...
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

#1372 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Oct 24, 2015 7:00 pm

Josh just posted on the icyclone Facebook page:

Why am I posting a picture of a dark bathroom with a mattress wedged in the ceiling? Because it protected me and seven other people.

Hurricane PATRICIA. All I can say is: terrifying storm.

After an hour or two of violent, destructive winds in Emiliano Zapata, the pressure bottomed out at 937.8 mb at 6:12 pm. We saw brightness in the sky and some touches of blue, and while the wind was still dangerous, it seemed to be little less energetic for a few minutes. (I notice that the NHC's landfall point was *very* close to us! So it looks like we might have been skirting the edge of the eye at this time.) Then the pressure started to rapidly rise, and I assumed the worst of the hurricane had passed. Actually, it hadn't started. (Ugh.)

At 6:34 pm the wind shifted sharply and a wall of wind and rain swept in, engulfing the hotel with a howling, whistling sound. There was a complete whiteout. The building trembled. Things were crashing-- big crashes as the hotel started to blow apart. Erik and I retreated to our room. A frightened hotel worker joined us and we stood in the dark, not sure what to do. We heard a terrific explosion and assumed the roof had blown off. (We were right.) Minutes later a man burst into the room-- a family across the hall was in trouble-- their room had torn open. Erik rushed across the hall-- which was now a wind tunnel-- and helped them into our room. Then all of us-- six adults and two children-- crammed into the bathroom: the family around the toilet, Erik and me in the shower stall, two hotel workers next to the sink, all of us pressed against each other in the darkness like trapped animals. Roaring. Crashing. The mother wept-- she was freaked out. I told her not to worry-- told her (in broken Spanish) we were totally safe-- but I was talking nonsense, telling a lie. More crashing. We put pillows and blankets over the children, and Erik and I put computer bags over our heads and got low. Water was streaming from the ceiling and we expected it to blow away any second. So Erik and the two workers and I pulled the mattress off the bed and squeezed it into the bathroom. We tore the shower doors out to make room, then lifted the mattress up over everyone and wedged it in to make an extra ceiling. And we waited.

The howling continued, but the pressure was rising fast-- into the 960s, then '70s-- and I knew we'd clear the core soon... just a few more minutes of this insanity. And by maybe 7 pm or so, we did. We crept out to look at the devastation-- smashed rooms, mountains of debris, trees stripped bare. And as it got dark the wind slowly calmed... And we had a tranquil night sleeping on a damp mattress, the crickets chirping all hours in the black, sticky calm.

On a meteorological note: The pressure gradient in the core of this cyclone was frightening. The pressure recovered explosively-- 31 mb in 26 minutes (6:24 - 6:50 pm!!) and an incredible 15 mb in just 9 minutes (6:34 - 6:43 pm) while the winds ripped apart the hotel. It was an incredible, frightening experience (and honor) to punch the core of this Cat-5 hurricane-- by the strongest known landfall ever in the Eastern Pacific. My video footage is messy, shaky, and wild, but I believe it captures the terror of the experience and I hope to post it soon.

I need to give a HUGE thanks to the team that made this chase awesome: my right-hand man in Texas, Scott Brownfield; James Hyde; and Jorge Abelardo Gonzalez. They all helped us interpret PATRICIA's complex motion in those frantic final hours as we tried to pinpoint the landfall. And I also want to thank Erik Sereno, who's been an awesome chase partner. Thanks also to Eric Blake, of the National Hurricane Center, for his valuable insights on off hours. And finally, I want to thank all the members of this page who give so much encouragement-- it helps during really tough chases like PATRICIA.

Erik and I spent much of the morning helping clean up the wreckage at our hotel, and now we're almost to Manzanillo. We're gonna sleep well tonight.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

#1373 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 24, 2015 7:18 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Josh just posted on the icyclone Facebook page:

Why am I posting a picture of a dark bathroom with a mattress wedged in the ceiling? Because it protected me and seven other people.

Hurricane PATRICIA. All I can say is: terrifying storm.

After an hour or two of violent, destructive winds in Emiliano Zapata, the pressure bottomed out at 937.8 mb at 6:12 pm. We saw brightness in the sky and some touches of blue, and while the wind was still dangerous, it seemed to be little less energetic for a few minutes. (I notice that the NHC's landfall point was *very* close to us! So it looks like we might have been skirting the edge of the eye at this time.) Then the pressure started to rapidly rise, and I assumed the worst of the hurricane had passed. Actually, it hadn't started. (Ugh.)

At 6:34 pm the wind shifted sharply and a wall of wind and rain swept in, engulfing the hotel with a howling, whistling sound. There was a complete whiteout. The building trembled. Things were crashing-- big crashes as the hotel started to blow apart. Erik and I retreated to our room. A frightened hotel worker joined us and we stood in the dark, not sure what to do. We heard a terrific explosion and assumed the roof had blown off. (We were right.) Minutes later a man burst into the room-- a family across the hall was in trouble-- their room had torn open. Erik rushed across the hall-- which was now a wind tunnel-- and helped them into our room. Then all of us-- six adults and two children-- crammed into the bathroom: the family around the toilet, Erik and me in the shower stall, two hotel workers next to the sink, all of us pressed against each other in the darkness like trapped animals. Roaring. Crashing. The mother wept-- she was freaked out. I told her not to worry-- told her (in broken Spanish) we were totally safe-- but I was talking nonsense, telling a lie. More crashing. We put pillows and blankets over the children, and Erik and I put computer bags over our heads and got low. Water was streaming from the ceiling and we expected it to blow away any second. So Erik and the two workers and I pulled the mattress off the bed and squeezed it into the bathroom. We tore the shower doors out to make room, then lifted the mattress up over everyone and wedged it in to make an extra ceiling. And we waited.

The howling continued, but the pressure was rising fast-- into the 960s, then '70s-- and I knew we'd clear the core soon... just a few more minutes of this insanity. And by maybe 7 pm or so, we did. We crept out to look at the devastation-- smashed rooms, mountains of debris, trees stripped bare. And as it got dark the wind slowly calmed... And we had a tranquil night sleeping on a damp mattress, the crickets chirping all hours in the black, sticky calm.

On a meteorological note: The pressure gradient in the core of this cyclone was frightening. The pressure recovered explosively-- 31 mb in 26 minutes (6:24 - 6:50 pm!!) and an incredible 15 mb in just 9 minutes (6:34 - 6:43 pm) while the winds ripped apart the hotel. It was an incredible, frightening experience (and honor) to punch the core of this Cat-5 hurricane-- by the strongest known landfall ever in the Eastern Pacific. My video footage is messy, shaky, and wild, but I believe it captures the terror of the experience and I hope to post it soon.

I need to give a HUGE thanks to the team that made this chase awesome: my right-hand man in Texas, Scott Brownfield; James Hyde; and Jorge Abelardo Gonzalez. They all helped us interpret PATRICIA's complex motion in those frantic final hours as we tried to pinpoint the landfall. And I also want to thank Erik Sereno, who's been an awesome chase partner. Thanks also to Eric Blake, of the National Hurricane Center, for his valuable insights on off hours. And finally, I want to thank all the members of this page who give so much encouragement-- it helps during really tough chases like PATRICIA.

Erik and I spent much of the morning helping clean up the wreckage at our hotel, and now we're almost to Manzanillo. We're gonna sleep well tonight.


Glad they are safe and well. It looks like they were in the peak eyewall. That pressure reading was right at the time of landfall, and they were about 4 miles away in a tight gradient, so that also supports the estimate of 918 (which I got using the Schloemer equation).
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#1374 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Oct 24, 2015 7:24 pm

They were 2.8 miles from the NHC landfall location, according to Jim Edds.
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#1375 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 24, 2015 7:31 pm

Remember there are less than 10,000 people (from what I can tell) that live in ground zero. It's a very rural area, and doesn't appear affluent at all.

There are a few villages: Emiliano Zapata (about 2,000), Costa Careyes (about 500), Arroyo Seco (about 200), Agua Caliente Nueva (about 3,000) and Cuitzmala (about 500), plus a couple thousand in rural areas there.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

#1376 Postby NFLnut » Sat Oct 24, 2015 7:36 pm

Is it just me? ..

Has anyone looked in the last hour or two at the remnants of Patricia emerging in the Gulf? Are we to expect redevelopment of this monster in the Gulf?

Image
Last edited by NFLnut on Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1377 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 24, 2015 7:39 pm

Looking at the pictures, La Manzanilla was very consistent with Category 1 conditions it appears. That's about 15-20 miles east of the landfall point. The worst would have been from roughly Costa Careyes to El Rebalsito.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

#1378 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 24, 2015 7:39 pm

NFLnut wrote:Is it just me? ..

Has anyone looked in the last hour or two at the remnants of Patricia emerging in the Gulf? Are we to expect redevelopment of this monster in the Gulf?

Image


I'd mention it in the TWO for sure...it would be named Kate if it develops.
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#1379 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 24, 2015 7:40 pm

If this redevelops in the Gulf, should it keep this thread or take a new thread? (That should be decided before becoming an Invest, if it does).
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Re:

#1380 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Oct 24, 2015 9:38 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:This so makes me wish that Recon had gone into Haiyan in 2013...I can only imagine what they would have found, maybe an SFMR reading over 200 knots?


More reason we need recon.

supercane4867 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:I just don't get why subjective analysis are so stubborn on using geostationary satellite while VIIRS and MODIS data clearly show the eye was well over 20°C.
Many storms in the past has been underestimated like this because agencies don't know how to use different satellite.


Has this been a problem for any storms in the past aside from Patricia? I can think of a few from the 1980's in the EPAC, but that's about it.

Elida 2002 is one of the classic examples in EPAC. NHC decided to give out CAT5 despite the lack of Dvorak support due to its pinhole eye.

It happens more often in NIO and SPAC where both located at viewing edge of satellities


Dvorak does not handle pinhole eyes well.
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