Arabian Sea: CHAPALA - Post-Tropical

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Arabian Sea: CHAPALA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 24, 2015 11:14 pm

here we go!
94AINVEST.15kts-1010mb-59N-687E
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GFS:
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ECMWF: into the Gulf of Aden
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#2 Postby alhddar » Sun Oct 25, 2015 4:27 am

94AINVEST.20kts-1006mb-60N-646E
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: INVEST 94A

#3 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Oct 25, 2015 10:45 pm

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 64.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 64.4E, APPROXIMATELY 740 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD,
DISORGANIZED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 251337Z
NOAA 18GHZ IMAGE REVEALS AN EXPOSED, POORLY-ORGANIZED LLCC. A
251602Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20
KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS
ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VWS OFFSET BY STRONG EASTERLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 DUE
TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: INVEST 94A

#4 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 26, 2015 1:56 pm

Looks like a TD is forming/has formed near 7.8N/65.4E. I don't see any LLC west of 65E. Definite rotation east of 65E. Good banding. If it isn't a TD already then it will be soon.
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: INVEST 94A

#5 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:29 pm

wxman57 wrote:Looks like a TD is forming/has formed near 7.8N/65.4E. I don't see any LLC west of 65E. Definite rotation east of 65E. Good banding. If it isn't a TD already then it will be soon.


Do you think it'll affect any landmasses?
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: INVEST 94A

#6 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 26, 2015 3:14 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Looks like a TD is forming/has formed near 7.8N/65.4E. I don't see any LLC west of 65E. Definite rotation east of 65E. Good banding. If it isn't a TD already then it will be soon.


Do you think it'll affect any landmasses?


EC & GFS indicate a landfall in Yemen in 8-9 days.
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: INVEST 94A

#7 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 26, 2015 4:44 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Looks like a TD is forming/has formed near 7.8N/65.4E. I don't see any LLC west of 65E. Definite rotation east of 65E. Good banding. If it isn't a TD already then it will be soon.


Do you think it'll affect any landmasses?


EC & GFS indicate a landfall in Yemen in 8-9 days.


Dang.
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: INVEST 94A

#8 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 26, 2015 8:37 pm

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 66.0E
(INVEST AREA 94A), IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 66.3E, APPROXIMATELY
1050 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261417Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS BROKEN CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED
LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN AN IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-
20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD INTO AN AREA
OF DECREASING VWS AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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#9 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 27, 2015 3:53 am

likely will be a very intense landfall in Yemen. Expect massive flooding. Even weak TCs cause large death tolls from freshwater flooding in Yemen and Somalia
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#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 27, 2015 8:12 am

Not sure if there's a well-defined LLC, but otherwise, it looks and smells like a TC.
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#11 Postby Dave C » Tue Oct 27, 2015 2:34 pm

Curved banding setting up.
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: INVEST 94A

#12 Postby jaguarjace » Tue Oct 27, 2015 7:35 pm

94A INVEST 151028 0000 11.5N 64.6E IO 30 1000
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#13 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 27, 2015 9:44 pm

clearly a depression now. I expect this to be one of the most intense to ever strike the Arabian Peninsula
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#14 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 27, 2015 11:51 pm

Yeah, you have to classify this.

Image

As is often the case in the Arabian Sea though, dry air does lurk about.
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: INVEST 94A

#15 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 28, 2015 12:25 am

Image
Low VWS area lies ahead just east of "the HORN" - must be the sweet spot for this system though I still expect this to weaken considerably before landfall.
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Re:

#16 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Oct 28, 2015 1:17 am

Alyono wrote:clearly a depression now. I expect this to be one of the most intense to ever strike the Arabian Peninsula


What are the landfall chances at this point?
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Re: Re:

#17 Postby Alyono » Wed Oct 28, 2015 1:19 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Alyono wrote:clearly a depression now. I expect this to be one of the most intense to ever strike the Arabian Peninsula


What are the landfall chances at this point?


a virtual certainty
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Re:

#18 Postby Alyono » Wed Oct 28, 2015 1:20 am

1900hurricane wrote:Yeah, you have to classify this.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc15/I ... E.71pc.jpg

As is often the case in the Arabian Sea though, dry air does lurk about.


fortunately, I do NOT have to wait for this to form a concentric eye as IMD will before they even call it a depression. I went ahead and called this a depression at 3Z
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Re: Re:

#19 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Oct 28, 2015 1:37 am

Alyono wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Alyono wrote:clearly a depression now. I expect this to be one of the most intense to ever strike the Arabian Peninsula


What are the landfall chances at this point?


a virtual certainty


So it's not going to be like that system that formed earlier this summer (July?) but eventually dissipated?
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Re: Re:

#20 Postby Alyono » Wed Oct 28, 2015 1:58 am

Kingarabian wrote:
So it's not going to be like that system that formed earlier this summer (July?) but eventually dissipated?


unfortunately no. This could get quite intense as well. EC is taking this down to about 943mb before it weakens to about 986 at landfall as it rides along the coast for about 18 hours

Given this is a desert, this is a rain threat
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