Arabian Sea: CHAPALA - Post-Tropical

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#181 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:40 pm

Looks like Socotra will get into a heavy rainband that will persist over the area for about 12 hours
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#182 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:42 pm

Alyono wrote:for some reason, NRL has stopped giving routine sat pics for this

On 30 min imagery I have access to, the eye looks like its expanding in size again. Probably eyewall replacement #2 ongoing


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 4A.CHAPALA,
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#183 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:50 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Alyono wrote:for some reason, NRL has stopped giving routine sat pics for this

On 30 min imagery I have access to, the eye looks like its expanding in size again. Probably eyewall replacement #2 ongoing


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 4A.CHAPALA,


bad security certificate. Cannot access the website on my computer
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#184 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:55 pm

Alyono wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Alyono wrote:for some reason, NRL has stopped giving routine sat pics for this

On 30 min imagery I have access to, the eye looks like its expanding in size again. Probably eyewall replacement #2 ongoing


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 4A.CHAPALA,


bad security certificate. Cannot access the website on my computer


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi

It gives a bad certificate but you can override it. It has updated IR images of Chapala.
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#185 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 31, 2015 7:26 pm

if the eyewall replacement finishes, Socotra could get the eyewall
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#186 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 31, 2015 7:28 pm

Dry air getting in on the west. Seems to be weakening slightly, but this is an extremely dangerous hurricane.
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#187 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 31, 2015 8:00 pm

its already fought off the dry air. probably in the 115-120 kt range
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#188 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 31, 2015 8:49 pm

may eventually get an 80 mile wide eye

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... C_SCALE=20%&STYLE=table&ACTIVES=15-IO-04A.CHAPALA,&TYPE=mhs&CURRENT=20151101.0130.meteo-7.ircolor.04A.CHAPALA.115kts.937mb.13.6N.56.4E.100pc.jpg&PROD=89rgb&DIR=/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc15/IO/04A.CHAPALA/mhs/89rgb&file_cnt=57
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#189 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:08 pm

not sure anyone will get warning.

Al Mukalla may be under Al Queda control at least according to Wikipedia
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#190 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Nov 01, 2015 12:15 am

Alyono wrote:not sure anyone will get warning.

Al Mukalla may be under Al Queda control at least according to Wikipedia


Very true. I just hope it somehow steers away from Mukalla.
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#191 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 01, 2015 1:03 am

TPIO11 PGTW 010537

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA)

B. 01/0530Z

C. 13.60N

D. 55.69E

E. ONE/MET7

F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 7NM OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED .5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 5.5. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
01/0019Z 13.60N 56.45E SSMS
01/0107Z 13.48N 56.43E MMHS
01/0329Z 13.40N 56.12E SSMS

A reasonable JTWC fix for a change.
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#192 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Nov 01, 2015 3:27 am

Talked to some friends in Yemen. They confirmed that AL Mukalla has no electricity, Internet, or satellite access. They basically said the hurricane is going to hit them without any warning.
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#193 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Nov 01, 2015 4:50 am

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Re: Arabian Sea: CHAPALA - Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

#194 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Nov 01, 2015 6:44 am

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Re: Arabian Sea: CHAPALA - Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

#195 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 01, 2015 7:10 am

What is that island it is passing to the north and how populated is it?
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Re: Arabian Sea: CHAPALA - Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

#196 Postby AJC3 » Sun Nov 01, 2015 7:42 am

euro6208 wrote:What is that island it is passing to the north and how populated is it?



Socotra. It was mentioned a page our two back (though the word Island wasn't used).

Population is about 44,000 according to Wikipedia...and the majority of cities are along the northern coast.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socotra
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#197 Postby Alyono » Sun Nov 01, 2015 8:36 am

should not see another eyewall replacement. This new eye is very large. Almost an annular TC now
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#198 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Nov 01, 2015 8:49 am

Was about to make a similar comment. The eyewall configuration looks very stable right now, and unless dry air gets ingested and disrupts the core, this is probably it in terms of eyewall replacement cycles.
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#199 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 01, 2015 8:49 am

Looks to have stabilized around 115 knots, with a smooth black (on BD) CDO and a solid OW eye. I wouldn't expect much weakening until after landfall.
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#200 Postby Alyono » Sun Nov 01, 2015 8:58 am

and of course JT lowers the winds and forecasts steady weakening to a 70 kt cyclone at landfall

They have not had a good grasp at all on these eyewall replacements
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