Arabian Sea: CHAPALA - Post-Tropical

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#221 Postby Alyono » Sun Nov 01, 2015 11:25 pm

This is an image of Al Mukalla

http://static.panoramio.com/photos/large/46285246.jpg

mudslides a certainty. Likely worse than Haitian mudslides
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Re: Arabian Sea: CHAPALA - Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

#222 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:50 am

Alyono wrote:This is an image of Al Mukalla

http://static.panoramio.com/photos/large/46285246.jpg

mudslides a certainty. Likely worse than Haitian mudslides


Virtually nothing to hold those earth
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#223 Postby AJC3 » Mon Nov 02, 2015 2:45 am

Alyono wrote:This is an image of Al Mukalla

http://static.panoramio.com/photos/large/46285246.jpg

mudslides a certainty. Likely worse than Haitian mudslides


That is just ominous and sickening to think about, especially after watching the Socotra flash flood video on Twitter, and factoring in how woefully unprepared the populace there will be.
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#224 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:48 am

Mainland Yemen can barely handle the 2 to 3 inches of yearly rain without the grounds flooding.

There is no official government so the public will certainly not be warned. We could be looking at something historically catastrophic.
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#225 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Nov 02, 2015 5:11 am

And of course, we may never know.
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Re: Arabian Sea: CHAPALA - Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

#226 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 02, 2015 6:36 am

I only say Yikes.

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Hold on Chaps

#227 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:24 am

Kingarabian wrote:Mainland Yemen can barely handle the 2 to 3 inches of yearly rain without the grounds flooding.

There is no official government so the public will certainly not be warned. We could be looking at something historically catastrophic.

When was the last time a TC got in the canal like this? I always wondered what would happen if one ever got in there.
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#228 Postby terstorm1012 » Mon Nov 02, 2015 9:24 am

I think this is the first recorded.
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Re: Arabian Sea: CHAPALA - Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

#229 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 02, 2015 9:57 am

Is a first.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach · 3m3 minutes ago
#Chapala has generated more ACE than any other Arabian Sea TC on record (reliable data since ~1990).
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#230 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Nov 02, 2015 3:44 pm

Closing in on landfall now.

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#231 Postby terstorm1012 » Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:04 pm

80 to 90 knts at landfall?
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#232 Postby Alyono » Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:14 pm

May be about 4-5 hours from landfall.

Weather underground reported 84mph gusts in Al Mukalla. Seeing many pics of severe flooding in Somalia and some in eastern Yemen

May have turned to the west-northwest. May be game over for Al Mukalla
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#233 Postby Alyono » Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:20 pm

I received a message from a coworker that the Al Queda areas are warning the people better than the government controlled areas. What is Yemen doing if this is accurate?
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#234 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 02, 2015 5:01 pm

Alyono wrote:I received a message from a coworker that the Al Queda areas are warning the people better than the government controlled areas. What is Yemen doing if this is accurate?


There is no government at all.
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#235 Postby Alyono » Mon Nov 02, 2015 5:19 pm

Not sure of the accuracy of this, but this is saying 88 mph gusts in Al Mukalla

http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:00000.2.41448
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#236 Postby Alyono » Mon Nov 02, 2015 6:19 pm

the very worst is hitting now
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Re: Hold on Chaps

#237 Postby 404UserNotFound » Mon Nov 02, 2015 6:37 pm

Cyclenall wrote:When was the last time a TC got in the canal like this? I always wondered what would happen if one ever got in there.

1984, in late May. Nowhere near as strong as Chapala, however:
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#238 Postby terstorm1012 » Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:02 pm

now we wait :(
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#239 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:21 pm

Very deep convection (<-80*C) is flaring up right on the coast neat the center, likely due to land friction. There has to to be absolutely torrential rain under that convective top.

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#240 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:30 pm

I'd put the landfall intensity at 85 kt personally.

However, given the poor conditions there and (presumably) lack of preparation, this is still a scary situation...
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