BOB: 03 - Post-Tropical

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BOB: 03 - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Nov 06, 2015 7:56 am

96B INVEST 151106 0600 8.4N 88.5E IO 20 1007
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Last edited by jaguarjace on Sat Nov 14, 2015 9:26 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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#2 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Nov 06, 2015 8:09 am

GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET all develop this.
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#3 Postby Grifforzer » Sat Nov 07, 2015 4:50 am

a low pressure area lies over southwestern Bay of Bengal at 0300 AM UTC on November 7th. It would become well marked and further concentrate into a depression during next 48 hours.

The environmental atmospheric and oceanic condition are favorable for intensification of the system and northwestward movement.. reaching Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coasts by night of November 9th/morning of November 10th.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
24 HRS: LOW
24-48 HRS: MODERATE
48-72 HRS: HIGH
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Re: BOB: INVEST 96B

#4 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 07, 2015 6:24 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5N 89.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 590 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING.
A 061153Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC WITH A
WEAK, ILL-DEFINED CORE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD
DIFFLUENCE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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#5 Postby Grifforzer » Sat Nov 07, 2015 11:49 am

India Meteorological Department 20:30 PM IST November 7 2015

Vortex (96B) over southern Bay of Bengal lays centered within half a degree of 8.5N 85.0E. Dvorak intensity T1.0.
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#6 Postby NotoSans » Sun Nov 08, 2015 2:28 am

IMD upgrades it to depression BOB 03.
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Re: BOB: 03 - Depression (INVEST 96B)

#7 Postby jaguarjace » Sun Nov 08, 2015 7:44 am

Dated: 08.11.2015
Time of issue: 1200 hours IST

A: Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal
(Pre-cyclone Watch for north Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coasts)

Bulletin No.: BOB-03/2015/01

A depression has formed over southwest Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 0830
hours IST of today, the 8th November, 2015 near latitude 10.70 N and longitude 83.70 E,
about 460 km southeast of Chennai, 440 km east-southeast of Puducherry and 480 km
east-northeast of Jafna (Sri Lanka). It would move west-northwestwards, intensify into a
deep depression during next 24 hours and subsequently into a cyclonic storm. It would
cross Tamil Nadu coast between Karaikal and Chennai close to Puducherry around 9th
midnight.

Heavy rainfall warning:
Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and isolated
extremely heavy falls (25 cm or more) would occur over north coastal Tamil Nadu and
Puducherry during next 24 hours and north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during
subsequent 24 hours.
Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls would occur over south and north
interior Tamil Nadu during next 24 hours and over south Tamil Nadu, Rayalseema, south
coastal Andhra Pradesh, south interior Karnataka and Kerala during subsequent 24 hours.

Squally wind warning:
Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph would prevail along
and off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and adjoining Pudukkottai and Ramanathapuram
districts of south Tamil Nadu coasts during next 24 hrs. It would increase gradually
becoming 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph along and off above coasts from tomorrow.

State of sea:
State of sea would be rough to very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu,
Puducherry and adjoining Pudukkottai and Ramanathapuram districts of south Tamil Nadu
coasts during next 48 hours.

Action suggested:
Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along and off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry
and adjoining Pudukkottai and Ramanathapuram districts of south Tamil Nadu coasts
during next 48 hours.

Next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 9th November, 2015.
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Re: BOB: 03 - Depression (INVEST 96B)

#8 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 08, 2015 8:55 am

Image

WTIO21 PGTW 080530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 84.4E TO 12.4N 79.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 83.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N
84.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 83.8E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 080131Z SSMIS
91HZ REVEALS DEEP FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH THE BULK OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-
15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 29
CELSIUS. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW WEAK DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO LANDFALL
INTO INDIA. DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090530Z.
//
NNNN
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#9 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Nov 08, 2015 3:46 pm

Big increase in very deep convection. -90*C tops are present.

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#10 Postby weathernerdguy » Sun Nov 08, 2015 9:19 pm

this is not a depression.
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Re: BOB: 03 - Deep Depression (INVEST 96B)

#11 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Nov 09, 2015 3:41 am

Dated: 09.11.2015
Time of issue: 1200 hours IST

A: Deep Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal

Bulletin No.: BOB-03/2015/04

The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards
with a speed of 18 kmph during past 6 hours and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the
9th November 2015 over southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 11.6°N and longitude
80.3°E, about 60 km east-southeast of Puducherry and 150 km southeast of Chennai. It
would move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast to the south of
Puducherry, close to Cuddalore around noon of today, the 9th November.

Heavy rainfall warning:
Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and isolated extremely
heavy falls (25 cm or more) would occur over north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during next 24
hours.
Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would occur over south Tamil
Nadu, Rayalseema, south coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 24 hrs and over coastal & south
interior Karnataka and Kerala during next 48 hours.

Squally wind warning:
Squally wind speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph would prevail along and off
north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and adjoining Pudukkottai and Ramanathapuram districts of south
Tamil Nadu coasts during next 24 hrs.

State of sea:
State of sea would be very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and
adjoining Pudukkottai and Ramanathapuram districts of south Tamil Nadu coasts during next 24
hours.

Damage expected:
Minor damage to banana trees and near coastal agriculture due to salt spray. Damage to
ripe paddy crops. Some breaches in Kutcha road due to flooding. Minor damage to Kutcha
embankments. Minor damage to loose / unsecured structures.

Action suggested:
Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along and off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and
adjoining Pudukkottai and Ramanathapuram districts of south Tamil Nadu coasts during next 24
hours.
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#12 Postby NotoSans » Mon Nov 09, 2015 5:39 am

I don't understand why JTWC cancelled TCFA. ASCAT shows 45-kt wind barbs. SAB has it at T3.0. It's definitely a tropical storm IMHO.
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#13 Postby TheEuropean » Mon Nov 09, 2015 7:14 am

This is the text by JTWC:

WTIO21 PGTW 090530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080451Z NOV 15//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 080500)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 080530). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 81.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
11.6N 80.7E, APPROXIMATELY 96 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA.
THE MOST RECENT ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS THE LOW LEVEL CONVECTION CENTER
(LLCC) IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH THE INDIA RUGGED TERRAIN.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS THE SYSTEM TO TRACK ACROSS INDIA INTO THE
ARABIAN SEA WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THE SYSTEM LLCC BEING OVER
LAND, IT IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.//
NNNN
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#14 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Nov 09, 2015 6:56 pm

Ugh, this was so a namable tropical cyclone. Even after landfall, the microwave presentation was of one.

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Re: BOB: 03 - Well Marked Low (INVEST 96B)

#15 Postby jaguarjace » Tue Nov 10, 2015 5:54 am

Dated: 10.11.2015
Time of issue: 1430 hours IST

A: Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal

Bulletin No.: BOB-03/2015/10

The Depression over north Tamil Nadu moved slowly westwards and weakened into a well
marked low pressure area at 1130 IST of today, the 10th November 2015 over north Tamil Nadu and
neighbourhood. It would move westwards and weaken further during next 24 hrs.

Heavy rainfall warning:
Rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a isolated places would occur over
north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Rayalaseema, and isolated heavy rainfall over coastal Andhra
Pradesh during next 24 hours. Rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a isolated
places would also occur over coastal & south interior Karnataka and Kerala during next 48 hours.

Wind warning:
Strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph would prevail along and off north
Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast during next 12 hrs.

State of sea:
State of sea would be moderate to rough along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts
during next 12 hours.

Action suggested:
Fishermen are advised to be cautious while venturing into sea along and off north Tamil Nadu
and Puducherry coasts during next 12 hours.

Maximum sustained surface wind speed reported on 9th November (along with the time of
occurrence) by coastal observatories of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry are as follows:
Cuddalore - 46 kmph (1430 IST), Puducherry- 46 kmph (1030 IST), Karaikal - 40 kmph (0730
IST), Chennai - 35 kmph (1103 IST).
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