ATL: KATE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: KATE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby AJC3 » Sat Nov 07, 2015 8:52 pm

This is the area near the southeastern Bahamas.
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#2 Postby gatorcane » Sat Nov 07, 2015 8:55 pm

I see some rotation between DR and Puerto Rico:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#3 Postby blp » Sat Nov 07, 2015 9:10 pm

About time. Looks like tomorrow will be the day this thing will start to organize as it finds better conditions in the Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#4 Postby blp » Sat Nov 07, 2015 9:17 pm

I wonder if 93l will provide the weakness to kick it out and avoid Florida.

Intersting to have two invests in November.
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#5 Postby gatorcane » Sat Nov 07, 2015 9:19 pm

Shortwave IR loop showing the rotation between DR and Puerto Rico heading WNW:

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Re:

#6 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Nov 07, 2015 9:52 pm

gatorcane wrote:I see some rotation between DR and Puerto Rico:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

i notice that
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#7 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Nov 07, 2015 9:54 pm

blp wrote:I wonder if 93l will provide the weakness to kick it out and avoid Florida.

Intersting to have two invests in November.

none weather forecast at miami weather office worry about likely will move north as get close to Bahama go ne after
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#8 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Nov 07, 2015 9:55 pm

i feel bad for Bahamas were hurr it their Don't need ts wind hope stay weak even rain can be issue
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#9 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Nov 07, 2015 11:31 pm

I wouldn't let your guard down in Florida especially if the recurve is later than anticipated


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#10 Postby fci » Sat Nov 07, 2015 11:40 pm

Climatologically this isn't coming to Florida and in the rare event that it did, it wouldn't be more than a little bit of rain to end our rainy season (which seems like it ended already anyway).
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#11 Postby CourierPR » Sun Nov 08, 2015 4:56 am

fci wrote:Climatologically this isn't coming to Florida and in the rare event that it did, it wouldn't be more than a little bit of rain to end our rainy season (which seems like it ended already anyway).


In view of possible climate change, climatology may be altered as systems such as 94L form later in the season and are guided by the atmospheric conditions producing the warmer climate.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#12 Postby CourierPR » Sun Nov 08, 2015 4:59 am

On satellite, the system appears to be developing that look of a cyclone.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#13 Postby abajan » Sun Nov 08, 2015 5:10 am

Up to 30/50

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of showers and thunderstorms extending northward from the
central Caribbean Sea across the Dominican Republic and the adjacent
Atlantic waters is associated with a surface trough. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this disturbance during the next few days while it moves west-
northwestward, and then northwestward toward the southeastern and
central Bahamas. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the
southeastern Bahamas during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Brown
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#14 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Nov 08, 2015 5:42 am

94L is looking pretty good this morning. The system is gradually coming together now that it is entering a quite favorable environment and shear is light in the area it is in currently. Also, 94L is beginning to get that "look" on satellite imagery, with outflow improving. This should continue this way at least for the next 48-72 hours. Convection is now becoming concentrated near the low level surface circulation just north of Hispaniola currently. I think we will see Kate within the next 24 hours if not sooner.

I really hope that this tropical cyclone does not become strong for the sake of the people in the Bahamas, who are still in the midst of trying to recover from the devastation from Hurricane Joaquin. It could be the ultimate added salt to the wound for those folks unfortunately. Potential Kate will likely take a path as it appears now to impact much of the Bahamian Islands the next 48 hours ad she moves eventually northwest. Those folks certainly do not need this in the aftermath of Joaquin.

It appears by Tuesday, westerly shear will increase as the cyclone hopefully begins its turn out to sea within the next 48-72 hours. There should be enough of a weakness near the SE U.S. coast to pick up the cyclone by Tuesday. Amazing nevertheless we will likely get one more named storm right here at the close of the 2015 North Atlantic Hurricane season.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2015 6:57 am

Up to 50% - 70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight in
association with a low pressure area located about 100 miles
southeast of the Turks and Caicos. Surface observations indicate
that gale-force winds have been occurring in brief squalls mainly to
the east of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the next couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward over the Bahamas and then turns northwestward.
Locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds are possible over
Hispaniola today, and over the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern
Bahamas during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#16 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Sun Nov 08, 2015 7:43 am

The front should kick it out to sea, missing The Conus. Guess it depends on timing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2015 7:46 am

12z Best Track.

Invest 94L
As of 12:00 UTC Nov 08, 2015:


Location: 20.9°N 70.2°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1013 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1015 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM
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#18 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Nov 08, 2015 8:06 am

I touched on this earlier in this thread, but, although I do not anticipate this system currently to impact the CONUS, it is still quite an irony nonetheless that potentially we may have another named storm of "Kate" in the month of November in this region of the North Atlantic basin.

In late November 1985, Hurricane Kate formed north of Puerto Rico and moved due west and became a Category 3 after brushing the northern coast of Cuba, and later moved northwest into the GOM and got picked up by a trough, eventually moved northeast, and made landfall on the Florida Panhandle as a Cat 2 cyclone. This set the record as the strongest intensity-wise tropical cyclone to ever impact the U.S. so late in the calendar year.

I remember Kate well as I was in Tallahassee my freshman year at Florida State when Kate came right through the city. Winds were at hurricane force and quite a lot of damage occurred in the city. Power was out for a least a week for many, which unfortunately included me.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#19 Postby tolakram » Sun Nov 08, 2015 8:45 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#20 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 08, 2015 8:59 am

This isn't going to be "Andrew", should it develop. We're talking about a low-end tropical storm, a rainfall threat at most. Southwest and west upper-level winds along the East U.S. Coast should recurve it east of the Bahamas.
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