ATL: KATE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#141 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 09, 2015 7:20 pm

Great radar shot from the NOAA3 plane.

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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#142 Postby emeraldislenc » Mon Nov 09, 2015 7:28 pm

Yes great radar shot,
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#143 Postby ozonepete » Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:32 pm

Wow hard to believe only 2 people on here. No interest at all? :(
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#144 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:37 pm

I am always watching and lurking whenever possible ozonepete.

I think that Kate is behaving as expected and is already making the turn out to sea. I guess that becuase Kate is not a threat to the CONUS, for some folks they tend not to watch it as closely.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#145 Postby ozonepete » Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:40 pm

Well, anyway, considering the warm SSTs, low shear and favorable mid-level moisture I am pretty confident that Kate will make hurricane status in the next 24 hours.
Clearly it is developing very good circular symmetry with really strong banding on the eastern side.

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Re:

#146 Postby ozonepete » Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:41 pm

northjaxpro wrote:I am always watching and lurking whenever possible ozonepete.


Good to know! And I'm not surprised. There are a few of us. :)
Last edited by ozonepete on Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#147 Postby gatorcane » Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:42 pm

ozonepete wrote:Wow hard to believe only 2 people on here. No interest at all? :(


only because it is no CONUS threat, if this were headed for the CONUS this board would be busy right now.
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#148 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:43 pm

I said earlier this morning ozonepete on this thread that I thought Kate would become a hurricane. She looks rather good tonight, and the cyclone is definitely taking full advantage of the favorable conditions right now.
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#149 Postby ozonepete » Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:43 pm

gatorcane wrote:
ozonepete wrote:Wow hard to believe only 2 people on here. No interest at all? :(


only because it is no CONUS threat, if this were headed for the CONUS this board would be busy right now.


Yeah I know gatorc. But it's a rare event and another opportunity to learn. Not that I have to tell you. You always watch and learn whether it's a threat or not. :)
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#150 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:46 pm

Also Kate should generate some nice surf the next few days along the Florida and SE U.S. coastal area.
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#151 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:49 pm

ozonepete wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
ozonepete wrote:Wow hard to believe only 2 people on here. No interest at all? :(


only because it is no CONUS threat, if this were headed for the CONUS this board would be busy right now.


Yeah I know gatorc. But it's a rare event and another opportunity to learn. Not that I have to tell you. You always watch and learn whether it's a threat or not. :)

Not to mention it's late in a Super El Niño season which many(including I) thought already had shut down.
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#152 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:53 pm

It is extremely rare to have a healthy tropical cyclone spinning just off to our east in November. It is interesting indeed and I agree with you ozonepete in that with the tropics, there is alwsys something to study and research for sure. The tropics NEVER cease to amaze me. Just look at this season. 11 named storms including 2 major hurricanes in a very strong El Nino! Absolutely amazing. I am only talking about the North Atlantic basin. Turned out to be more active and interesting than I anticipated ths is for sure.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#153 Postby ozonepete » Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:54 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
ozonepete wrote:Yeah I know gatorc. But it's a rare event and another opportunity to learn. Not that I have to tell you. You always watch and learn whether it's a threat or not. :)

Not to mention it's late in a Super El Niño season which many(including I) thought already had shut down.


Yeah that's true. I was caught off guard with Kate myself. And you are another one that's often around for the fish. :wink:
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#154 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:09 pm

Despite not being a threat to the CONUS,the interest for Patricia was big because of how it became the strongest cyclone on record and then that recon mission for the ages kept the people well after midnight to see history being made. It all depends on the system if it has an eye it can draw interest despite not being a CONUS threat.Another one was Joaquin.Following Kate is interesting because of the time of year and with the strong El Nino around how it is evolving.I also thought more people would be following it.
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Re:

#155 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:09 pm

northjaxpro wrote:It is extremely rare to have a healthy tropical cyclone spinning just off to our east in November. It is interesting indeed and I agree with you ozonepete in that with the tropics, there is alwsys something to study and research for sure. The tropics NEVER cease to amaze me. Just look at this season. 11 named storms including 2 major hurricanes in a very strong El Nino! Absolutely amazing. I am only talking about the North Atlantic basin. Turned out to be more active and interesting than I anticipated ths is for sure.

On top of that Joaquin was a borderline Cat.5 hurricane with winds maxing out at 155mph! Strongest hurricane in 5 seasons!
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Re: Re:

#156 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:19 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:It is extremely rare to have a healthy tropical cyclone spinning just off to our east in November. It is interesting indeed and I agree with you ozonepete in that with the tropics, there is alwsys something to study and research for sure. The tropics NEVER cease to amaze me. Just look at this season. 11 named storms including 2 major hurricanes in a very strong El Nino! Absolutely amazing. I am only talking about the North Atlantic basin. Turned out to be more active and interesting than I anticipated ths is for sure.

On top of that Joaquin was a borderline Cat.5 hurricane with winds maxing out at 155mph! Strongest hurricane in 5 seasons!


Yes indeed. I totally concur with you!! Joaquin was one hell of a monster storm which I am lobbying hard in my siggie for it to be rightfully retired!!!! I would absolutely find it incredulous if the Bahamian government does not enter a request to the WMO to have Joaquin's name retired after what that storm did to them for 2 days in the Central Bahamas. Plus the El Faro tragedy attached to Joaquin as well.
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#157 Postby ozonepete » Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:21 pm

:uarrow: I am 100% sure Joaquin will be retired.
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#158 Postby Hammy » Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:32 pm

Convection seems to have wrapped about 3/4 of the way around. Realistically what are the chances this makes a run at hurricane intensity tomorrow?
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#159 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:32 pm

Yeah you would think ozonepete. But, we have a thread on the forums about this very subject and you would be surprised that the Bahamian government has only submitted a total of 5 storms to be retired in their history(which all were btw), azazing considering how many tropical cylones have impacted them or brushed them through the decades. However, this situation with Joaquin is just too magnified of the devastation Joaquin bought to the islands there for them to not enter a retirement request this time around.

OK I did not mean to hijack the spotlight from Kate here lol.. Back on topic. Kate continues looking very good this evening, very symmetric and you can see gradually the beginnings of a CDO now. It won't be long that she attains hurricane status. I think tomorrow morning she should be about there.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#160 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:36 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
1000 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015

...KATE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 76.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NNE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
1000 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015

Kate's cloud pattern is well organized this evening. The
center is located beneath a small central dense overcast feature
with prominent banding features noted over the northern semicircle.
Earlier NOAA reconnaissance data indicated that Kate had
strengthened to about 45 kt. Since the plane departed the storm,
the satellite presentation has continued to improve, so the
intensity is increased to 50 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to
remain within a low-to-moderate shear environment and over warm
water for another 12 to 18 hours, which should allow for additional
strengthening. It is even possible that Kate will become a
hurricane on Tuesday before the southwesterly shear becomes strong
and the cyclone moves over cooler waters. Kate is forecast to
become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days and is expected
to be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone and frontal system
over the north Atlantic by day 3.

Kate has made the expected northward turn, and will be steered
northeastward on Tuesday between a deep-layer ridge over the
central Atlantic and a short-wave trough that is approaching the
east coast of the United States. The cyclone should accelerate
northeastward or east-northeastward by Tuesday night as it becomes
embedded in the fast mid-latitude westerlies. The updated track is
similar to the previous advisory and near a blend of the GFS and
ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 27.2N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 29.5N 75.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 32.5N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 35.3N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 38.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 13/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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