ATL: KATE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#161 Postby Ken Lucas » Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
1000 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015

...KATE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 76.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NNE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
1000 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015

Kate's cloud pattern is well organized this evening. The
center is located beneath a small central dense overcast feature
with prominent banding features noted over the northern semicircle.
Earlier NOAA reconnaissance data indicated that Kate had
strengthened to about 45 kt. Since the plane departed the storm,
the satellite presentation has continued to improve, so the
intensity is increased to 50 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to
remain within a low-to-moderate shear environment and over warm
water for another 12 to 18 hours, which should allow for additional
strengthening. It is even possible that Kate will become a
hurricane on Tuesday before the southwesterly shear becomes strong
and the cyclone moves over cooler waters. Kate is forecast to
become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days and is expected
to be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone and frontal system
over the north Atlantic by day 3.

Kate has made the expected northward turn, and will be steered
northeastward on Tuesday between a deep-layer ridge over the
central Atlantic and a short-wave trough that is approaching the
east coast of the United States. The cyclone should accelerate
northeastward or east-northeastward by Tuesday night as it becomes
embedded in the fast mid-latitude westerlies. The updated track is
similar to the previous advisory and near a blend of the GFS and
ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 27.2N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 29.5N 75.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 32.5N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 35.3N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 38.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 13/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brown


So we may have Hurricane Kate tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#162 Postby emeraldislenc » Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:37 pm

Saved again by a front!
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#163 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:41 pm

For what it's worth I'm here lurking and following along. Just not too much to say about Kate. She is behaving as expected and headed to see the fishes. Wonder if she'll pay Bermuda a visit on the way out.

On a side note...I'll be real interested in getting some news on a decent cold front here in South Florida. This heat for November is ridiculous.

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#164 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Nov 10, 2015 12:50 am

Kate is racing. If she's gonna make a run at hurricane intensity (might well do so based on structural trends) without baroclinic influences as post-tropical transition takes place it's gonna have to come pretty quickly. She's not wasting any time recurving ahead of that front.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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#165 Postby TheEuropean » Tue Nov 10, 2015 4:07 am

Now for first time NHC with hurricane in the forecast:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 100856
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
400 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

Kate's convective structure hasn't changed much from the previous
advisory. The center is located beneath a small central dense
overcast with broken banding over the northeastern quadrant. The
initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of Dvorak numbers
of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T3.0/45 kt from SAB. A NOAA P-3
aircraft recently reached Kate, and on its first pass through the
center it reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 45 kt and
surface winds between 40-45 kt. In addition, the central pressure
has fallen to 1003 mb. The plane will be making a few more passes
through the center during the next couple of hours.

Although vertical shear is forecast to increase during the next
couple of days and Kate will be moving over water colder than 26C
within the next 12-24 hours, all of the reliable intensity models
indicate that the cyclone should strengthen and reach hurricane
strength by 36 hours, if not sooner. After 36 hours, the shear is
expected to increase to nearly 50 kt, which should cause Kate to
become post-tropical. One significant change on this cycle is that
the 00Z GFS, UKMET, Canadian, and to some extent the ECMWF now show
Kate becoming the dominant low pressure area over the north Atlantic
in a few days instead of being absorbed by a separate extratropical
low. Therefore, the updated NHC is now extended beyond 48 hours,
showing Kate as a growing extratropical low over the north Atlantic
on days 3-5.

Kate is accelerating northward with an initial motion of 010/15 kt.
The cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward and east-northeastward
and accelerate further through Wednesday as it becomes embedded in
the mid-latitude westerlies. Kate is likely to slow down around
day 3 when it becomes extratropical, but it should resume a faster
northeastward motion toward the far north Atlantic on days 4 and 5.
The new NHC track forecast is primarily an update of the previous
forecast through 48 hours, and the extended extratropical portion
beyond day 3 is generally a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 28.8N 75.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 31.0N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 33.9N 68.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 36.6N 60.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 39.2N 54.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 13/0600Z 43.0N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0600Z 46.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0600Z 53.0N 27.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg
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#166 Postby NotoSans » Tue Nov 10, 2015 4:49 am

Latest pass reports an extrapolated pressure of 997.4 mb (6 mb lower than previous pass) with SFMR up to 57 kt.
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#167 Postby arlwx » Tue Nov 10, 2015 5:04 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
400 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

...KATE ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 75.8W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM NNE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kate was
located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 75.8 West. Kate is
moving toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast later today,
followed by an even faster east-northeastward motion on Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Kate is expected to remain
well offshore the east coast of the United States and north of
Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Kate could become a hurricane by Wednesday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kate are affecting the eastward-facing
beaches in the northwestern Bahamas but should gradually subside
today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#168 Postby Hammy » Tue Nov 10, 2015 5:15 am

This probably won't become a hurricane if the data is any indication--it looks like it's already starting to weaken. Recon only supports 45kt and it may be lower than that if the values are rain-contaminated.
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#169 Postby NotoSans » Tue Nov 10, 2015 6:03 am

Based on the latest pass, I would place the intensity at 55 kt.
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#170 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Tue Nov 10, 2015 7:27 am

Very Interesting System. If it was not for fronts this year, Florida would have been hit. :idea:
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#171 Postby NotoSans » Tue Nov 10, 2015 8:02 am

AL, 12, 2015111012, , BEST, 0, 295N, 754W, 55, 999, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 20, 20, 1014, 160, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KATE, M,

12Z up to 55kt.
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#172 Postby NDG » Tue Nov 10, 2015 8:15 am

Unflagged 61 knot wind found by the recon.

130100 2939N 07501W 8435 01523 0035 +191 +161 228065 068 061 001 00
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#173 Postby NDG » Tue Nov 10, 2015 8:18 am

Weatherwatcher98 wrote:Very Interesting System. If it was not for fronts this year, Florida would have been hit. :idea:


Is kind of late in the season for a storm to make it to FL from the east.
Earlier this hurricane season the steering pattern was very close to 2004 but windshear across the Caribbean took care of it.
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#174 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Tue Nov 10, 2015 8:51 am

NDG wrote:
Weatherwatcher98 wrote:Very Interesting System. If it was not for fronts this year, Florida would have been hit. :idea:


Is kind of late in the season for a storm to make it to FL from the east.
Earlier this hurricane season the steering pattern was very close to 2004 but windshear across the Caribbean took care of it.
Late or not, the only reason why this missed Florida and the Conus was that front. :wink: Climatology seemed to be out of whack this year. :D
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#175 Postby tolakram » Tue Nov 10, 2015 9:03 am

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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#176 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 10, 2015 9:50 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
1000 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

...KATE MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 74.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
1000 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating Kate this morning indicate that the storm has
continued to strengthen. The initial intensity is set to 60 kt based
on a peak SFMR wind of 61 kt from the Air Force aircraft. Given the
latest dropsonde data, the central pressure is estimated at 999 mb.
Kate's center continues to be embedded within a small CDO feature,
with aircraft data indicating some tilt to the circulation,
consistent with 15 to 20 kt of southwesterly shear analyzed over
the cyclone.

Despite increasing shear and cooling SSTs along the track, all of
the guidance continues to suggest that Kate will strengthen during
the next 24-36 hours, likely due in part to very cold temperatures
aloft. The NHC forecast follows this trend, and is above the
guidance in the short range given the initial intensity, and shows
Kate peaking at 70 kt in 24 to 36 hours. As the shear increases to
over 40 kt, Kate should lose tropical characteristics by 48 hours
and then weaken as it becomes fully extratropical by 72 hours. The
official forecast carries Kate as the dominant feature through 5
days as it interacts with another extratropical low over the north
Atlantic.

Kate continues to accelerate, with an initial motion estimate of
035/18. A further acceleration toward the east-northeast is
forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours as Kate becomes fully
embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. A slowing of the forward
speed is expected in 48 to 72 hours while Kate interacts with an
upper-level trough during extratropical transition, followed by a
faster northwestward motion over the north Atlantic at the end of
the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update
of the previous one. This forecast is close to the latest GFS track
through 48 hours and a little to the north of that model afterward.

The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 30.2N 74.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 32.5N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 35.3N 64.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 37.8N 56.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 40.5N 51.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 13/1200Z 42.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1200Z 47.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1200Z 55.5N 22.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#177 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Nov 10, 2015 9:50 am

Hammy wrote:This probably won't become a hurricane if the data is any indication--it looks like it's already starting to weaken. Recon only supports 45kt and it may be lower than that if the values are rain-contaminated.


You were saying? :P
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#178 Postby Ken Lucas » Tue Nov 10, 2015 9:58 am

Interesting that Kate is expected to strengthen to a hurricane as it moves away from the Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#179 Postby WPBWeather » Tue Nov 10, 2015 10:39 am

Ken Lucas wrote:Interesting that Kate is expected to strengthen to a hurricane as it moves away from the Bahamas.


Yes. This season has stayed one step ahead of most of us on Storm2K and even other Pro Mets elsewhere. And it is not over yet, if models are to be trusted.
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#180 Postby emeraldislenc » Tue Nov 10, 2015 10:40 am

Very interesting storm!
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