ATL: KATE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#181 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 10, 2015 11:33 am

NDG wrote:
Weatherwatcher98 wrote:Very Interesting System. If it was not for fronts this year, Florida would have been hit. :idea:


Is kind of late in the season for a storm to make it to FL from the east.
Earlier this hurricane season the steering pattern was very close to 2004 but windshear across the Caribbean took care of it.


It happened in 1935...from the northeast! But yeah, in November most likely a storm would need to come in from the south or west, and the Gulf of Mexico rarely spawns storms this later in the year.
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#182 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Nov 10, 2015 12:39 pm

Good thing this Kate isn't gonna try to emulate the Kate of '85 I suppose. Yay for fronts. Would love to boost our ACE and yearly hurricane count though. Four hurricanes compared to total named storms is still a low ratio but as in my signature it's still far more realistic, per se, than pitiful 2013 was.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#183 Postby tolakram » Tue Nov 10, 2015 1:53 pm

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#184 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 10, 2015 3:47 pm

TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
400 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

Kate has not changed much in structure during the past few hours,
with the center still embedded with a small CDO. Dvorak estimates
are T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity remains
60 kt based on the earlier aircraft data. A NOAA hurricane hunter
aircraft will be investigating Kate again this evening. A pair of
ASCAT A/B passes at 14-15Z were helpful in analyzing the 34-kt wind
radii.

The intensity forecast shows Kate reaching hurricane status in 12
hours, and then remaining a powerful cyclone as it undergoes
extratropical transition in 36 to 48 hours while it interacts with
an upper-level trough and an east/west oriented low-level baroclinic
zone. After transition, the baroclinic forcing weakens, and Kate is
expected to weaken to 40-45 kt at 72 hours and beyond. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus through
transition.

The initial motion estimate is 050/26, as Kate continues to
accelerate into the mid-latitude westerlies. The track model
guidance is in generally good agreement showing a turn toward the
east-northeast with a forward speed of 30 to 35 kt through 36 hours,
followed by a slower northeastward motion as Kate interacts with an
upper-level trough. After that time, a gradual acceleration toward
the east and then northeast is expected over the north Atlantic. The
new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of and faster than
the previous one through 48 hours, based on the initial position and
motion, and a faster trend in the guidance. After that time the NHC
forecast is largely an update of the previous one. The NHC track is
close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models through 48 hours and
is close to the GEFS ensemble mean after that time.

The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 32.2N 72.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 34.3N 68.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 37.1N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 40.0N 53.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 42.0N 50.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1800Z 43.0N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1800Z 48.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1800Z 58.0N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#185 Postby Hammy » Tue Nov 10, 2015 4:38 pm

Recon is only showing 50kt surface winds on the first pass and there is only a small area of east winds on the northern side, so with this and shear increasing I'll wager this is going to be on the decrease during this mission. Radar presentation is also poor. I stand by my expectations that it won't become a hurricane, especially with this being the last mission.
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#186 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 10, 2015 4:57 pm

It may be accelerating too quickly now to get better organized and become a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#187 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 10, 2015 5:07 pm

Plane is having a hard time going thru center as is moving fast.
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#188 Postby Hammy » Tue Nov 10, 2015 5:25 pm

Wind shift is well west of the lowest pressure.
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#189 Postby Alyono » Tue Nov 10, 2015 5:42 pm

cycloneye wrote:Plane is having a hard time going thru center as is moving fast.


remember, this is a Doppler Radar mission not a center fix mission
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#190 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 10, 2015 5:44 pm

I would upgrade to hurricane.

MAX FL WIND AND MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 72 KT 113 / 49 NM 22:17:38Z
MAX FL TEMP 11 C 091 / 5 NM FROM FL CNTR
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#191 Postby Alyono » Tue Nov 10, 2015 5:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:I would upgrade to hurricane.

MAX FL WIND AND MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 72 KT 113 / 49 NM 22:17:38Z
MAX FL TEMP 11 C 091 / 5 NM FROM FL CNTR


not with the surface winds
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Re: ATL: KATE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#192 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Nov 10, 2015 6:00 pm

Alyono wrote:
cycloneye wrote:I would upgrade to hurricane.

MAX FL WIND AND MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 72 KT 113 / 49 NM 22:17:38Z
MAX FL TEMP 11 C 091 / 5 NM FROM FL CNTR


not with the surface winds


SFMR winds seem a bit too low. We need a dropsonde.
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#193 Postby NotoSans » Tue Nov 10, 2015 6:43 pm

I wonder whether the winds are mixing down to the surface given the strong shear.
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Re:

#194 Postby Hammy » Tue Nov 10, 2015 7:01 pm

NotoSans wrote:I wonder whether the winds are mixing down to the surface given the strong shear.


I'm honestly wondering if the circulation is even closed at this point given the forward speed.
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Re: Re:

#195 Postby tolakram » Tue Nov 10, 2015 7:42 pm

Hammy wrote:
NotoSans wrote:I wonder whether the winds are mixing down to the surface given the strong shear.


I'm honestly wondering if the circulation is even closed at this point given the forward speed.


Good grief. :D

A lot of storms have intensified into hurricanes in this area moving this fast, especially late in the season. You may be right, but I doubt it.

live ir

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=35&lon=-70&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=black

Starting to really build convection now, probably intensifying as models predicted. IMO.
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#196 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 10, 2015 7:58 pm

10/2345 UTC 33.3N 70.8W T4.0/4.0 KATE -- Atlantic

Any other day would support Hurricane Kate. But Recon does not support such.
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#197 Postby Hammy » Tue Nov 10, 2015 8:13 pm

0z BT still at 60kt and pressure is down to 998 from 999.
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#198 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Nov 10, 2015 8:17 pm

Got just a little window left... but still, seen many storms in this area briefly go hurricane intensity when accelerating northeastward, though it's really weird to have a storm like this moving in this direction at this time of year. FWIW, some of the microwave imagery (got a couple decent passes in) seems to indicate a bit of an eye feature, but of course despite that, it doesn't seem to be stacked extremely well and conditions aren't going to get any better.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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#199 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Nov 10, 2015 8:34 pm

Last time I checked (throwing out SFMR for gods sake it's wind profile didn't make sense), 90% of 72 knt would support 65 knots.
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#200 Postby bahamaswx » Tue Nov 10, 2015 9:01 pm

Looking very nice on satellite right now.
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