WPAC: IN-FA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 170918

A. TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTY SEVEN)

B. 17/0830Z

C. 4.85N

D. 160.89E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[NotoSans]

JMA has it at T2.0 at 12Z. Expect an upgrade soon.

[cycloneye]

TS 1526 (IN-FA)
Issued at 13:05 UTC, 17 November 2015


<Analyses at 17/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N4°55'(4.9°)
E159°35'(159.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)

<Forecast for 18/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N5°35'(5.6°)
E157°50'(157.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 18/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N6°25'(6.4°)
E155°55'(155.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 19/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°00'(8.0°)
E152°10'(152.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 20/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°40'(9.7°)
E148°35'(148.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM

[supercane]

Comparing 12Z advisories shows JTWC with stronger system at all times compared with JMA, with both tracks south of Guam.
WTPN51 PGTW 171500
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 151117140057
2015111712 27W IN-FA 003 01 290 16 SATL 060
T000 047N 1598E 040 R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 059N 1574E 045 R034 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 074N 1549E 050 R034 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 085N 1530E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 094N 1513E 060 R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 106N 1474E 070 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 105 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 122N 1423E 090
T120 147N 1377E 100
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 003
<rest omitted>

WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR
03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 163 NM
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN LLCC WITH SOME BANDING AROUND THE
SYSTEM. A 171107 AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS A NOTCH FEATURE AS WELL AS DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE METOP-A WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY
INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL INCREASE IN DVORAK
INTENSITIES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WHICH REFLECTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH VERY LOW
VWS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR
EXTENSION TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 27W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD BEING STEERED BY THE STR EXTENSION. THE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN ITS INTEGRITY, BEING MODIFIED ONLY SLIGHTLY BT THE FAIRLY
ZONAL MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TAU 72, SURPASSING TYPHOON STRENGTH AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DUE TO THE
CURRENT HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TS IN-FA MAY
INCREASE ITS INTENSITY AT A MORE RAPID RATE, HOWEVER, MODELS DO NOT
CURRENTLY REFLECT THAT SCENARIO.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, EXPECT A GREATER RATE OF INCREASE OF INTENSITY
AS THE STR DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MORE POSITIVE OUTFLOW AND THE SYSTEM REACHING 100 KNOTS BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY TIGHT, THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF GUIDANCE LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

WTPQ50 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1526 IN-FA (1526) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 04.9N 159.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 181200UTC 06.4N 155.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 191200UTC 08.0N 152.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 201200UTC 09.7N 148.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 211200UTC 11.7N 144.7E 240NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
120HF 221200UTC 13.8N 140.5E 300NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT =

[mrbagyo]

Even @ fairly low latitude, storms here can get quite intense. What I noticed about systems that formed at low latitudinal location, they tend to build a compact/small cdo before popping a pinhole. Most of the time they're accompanied by an expansive spiral band.

In-fa is no exemption - she's now getting those characteristics plus she's got a really impressive radial outflow at such an early stage of dev. My initial peak forecast - 135 knots

[Alyono]

this is probably a 50 kt storm now based upon earlier ASCAT and microwave images since then

[1900hurricane]

Oh boy, looks like everyone's intensity forecasts have already busted...

[cycloneye]

JMA up to 40kts.

TS 1526 (IN-FA)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 17 November 2015


<Analyses at 17/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N5°20'(5.3°)
E158°35'(158.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 18/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N6°55'(6.9°)
E155°10'(155.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 19/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°55'(8.9°)
E151°20'(151.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 20/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N10°55'(10.9°)
E147°05'(147.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL460km(250NM)

<Forecast for 21/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N12°00'(12.0°)
E144°25'(144.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Radius of probability circle 440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 22/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N13°25'(13.4°)
E140°25'(140.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)

[cycloneye]

JTWC warning at 21:00 UTC is up to 45kts and new peak is 110kts.Now it moves close to Guam as a cat 2 Typhoon.Any deviation of the track to the right would bring the center over that Island so those there should be beginning preparations without a rush as you have plenty of time.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 171900
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IN-FA (27W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP272015
500 AM CHST WED NOV 18 2015

...TROPICAL STORM IN-FA PASSING SOUTH OF POHNPEI...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAPWUAFIK. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE IMMINENT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POHNPEI...NUKUORO AND
PAKIN IN POHNPEI STATE...AND FOR LUKUNOR...LOSAP...CHUUK AND FANANU IN
CHUUK STATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...5.4N 158.3E

ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAKIN
ABOUT 70 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAPWUAFIK
ABOUT 250 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF NUKUORO
ABOUT 295 MILES EAST OF LUKUNOR
ABOUT 395 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 460 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 480 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 1085 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 1075 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IN-FA WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 5.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
158.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM IN-FA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN TURN SLIGHTLY
MORE TO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS TRACK TAKES IN-FA
ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI AROUND 1000 AM CHST THIS
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH...BUT SLOW INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND 75 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM CHST...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT
1100 AM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[euro6208]

Latest EURO and GFS runs agree on a track south of Guam with GFS being closer with the latter developing this to a possible cat 5 as it recurves west of the Marianas.

The name In-fa was submitted by China meaning fireworks. Oh i wonder what kind of fireworks it might bring to Guam and the CNMI.

[euro6208]

NWS:

ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...IN-FA HAS SHOWN INCREASING
ORGANIZATION...WITH A MORE COMPACT CLOUD MASS FORMING AROUND THE
CENTER WHILE THE PERIPHERAL BANDS WEAKEN AND SHRINK. THIS WOULD
FAVOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MOVEMENT
HAS BEEN WNW...WITH MOST MODELS CONTINUING THAT MOTION WITH A
SLIGHT WESTWARD TURN FRIDAY. WINDS IN THE MARIANAS FROM IN-FA WILL
BE VERY SENSITIVE TO SLIGHT CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BRING LOW-END TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS TO GUAM OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT A SLIGHT DEVIATION SOUTH WOULD
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY LESS WIND...WHILE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT
COULD BRING MUCH STRONGER WINDS TO ALL THE MARIANAS... POSSIBLY
EVEN TYPHOON FORCE. THE JURY IS STILL OUT...AND RESIDENTS OF THE
MARIANAS SHOULD KEEP CLOSE TABS ON THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
ADVISORIES.

Seems to be forming an eye...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 NOV 2015 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 5:40:07 N Lon : 157:53:48 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 /1003.1mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.5 3.7

Center Temp : -56.7C Cloud Region Temp : -73.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 60km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.8 degrees

[supercane]

JTWC 21Z prognostic discussion:
WDPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
SOUTH OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AND BUILDING OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 171405Z GCOM-W1 36H MICROWAVE PASS IS
STARTING TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EYE FEATURE. THE IR LOOP
DOES NOT CURRENTLY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE FEATURE. DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD INDICATE A MARGINAL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
IS BASED ON THE IMPROVING DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED GCOM IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW
WITH VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 27W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEING STEERED BY THE STR EXTENSION AND IN THE
LATER TAUS BY THE MORE DOMINANT LOBE OF THE STR ANCHORED TO THE WEST
OF GUAM. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTEGRITY, BEING MODIFIED ONLY
SLIGHTLY BY THE FAIRLY ZONAL MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72, SURPASSING TYPHOON
STRENGTH AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DUE TO THE CURRENT HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TS IN-FA MAY INCREASE ITS INTENSITY AT A
MORE RAPID RATE; HOWEVER, MODELS DO NOT CURRENTLY REFLECT THAT
SCENARIO.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, EXPECT A GREATER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION AS THE
STR DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
POSITIVE OUTFLOW AND THE SYSTEM TO REACH 110 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND HAS COME
INTO TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH ONLY MINOR VARIATION
THROUGH TAU 120. BASED ON THE IMPROVING MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

That outflow

[1900hurricane]

Tight curved banding can be seen on microwave and also made out on visible. This is good structure for future intensification.

[FireRat]

This site from Taiwan already calls In Fa a typhoon:

http://m.focustaiwan.tw/news/asoc/201511170040.aspx

November typhoons have proven to be notorious in past years, we should watch this one closely.

[cycloneye]

Yiles,this is going up fast.

[cycloneye]

TS 1526 (IN-FA)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 18 November 2015


<Analyses at 18/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N5°30'(5.5°)
E157°10'(157.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 19/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°05'(8.1°)
E153°50'(153.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 20/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N9°40'(9.7°)
E151°00'(151.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 21/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N10°55'(10.9°)
E147°25'(147.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 22/00 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N13°05'(13.1°)
E142°35'(142.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Radius of probability circle 440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 23/00 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N15°35'(15.6°)
E138°05'(138.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)

[cycloneye]

JTWC up to 50kts.It moves south of Guam as a high end cat 2.