WPAC: IN-FA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#101 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 20, 2015 5:47 am

Updated 3 hour position shows In-fa behaving normally, should continue to pass south of Guam...

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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#102 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 20, 2015 6:25 am

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 201113
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON IN-FA (27W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
913 PM CHST FRI NOV 20 2015

...EYE OF TYPHOON IN-FA VISIBLE ON GUAM RADAR...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON GUAM AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 40
NAUTICAL MILES.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR GUAM.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF MARIANAS WATERS.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON IN-FA (27W) WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 10.7N...LONGITUDE 146.5E. THIS WAS ABOUT 240
MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 115 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TYPHOON IN-FA IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF GUAM AROUND
SUNRISE ON SATURDAY MORNING. GUAM WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE ONLY MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DURING THE STORM...STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. DO NOT
VENTURE OUTSIDE WHEN HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING.

HAVE A WELL-CHARGED CELL PHONE NEARBY. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM
INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL AFTER TYPHOON IN-FA PASSES
AND WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 AM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ001-PMZ151-201900-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.0012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-
913 PM CHST FRI NOV 20 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETED. GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON SOUTHERN GUAM AND THE COASTAL
WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM. CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND BE READY TO ACT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP LOOSE ITEMS INDOORS...SUCH AS GARBAGE
CANS...TARPS OR CANOPIES...AND OUTDOOR FURNITURE...AS THEY COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND. NEWLY PLANTED OR YOUNG TREES AND SHRUBS MAY BE
UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED PROPERLY. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE FOUND IN WATERS SOUTH OF GUAM.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
MINOR COASTAL INUNDATION 1 TO 2 FEET MAY OCCUR ALONG EAST FACING
COASTLINES OF GUAM...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE NEAR
3 AM AND 3 PM CHST SATURDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
GUAM IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ON SATURDAY.

$$

MCELROY
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#103 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 20, 2015 6:27 am

Hard to believe a typhoon was passing by us when COR 2 when issued this afternoon. It was mostly clear skies and no winds earlier today until now. That shows how small In-fa is.
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#104 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Nov 20, 2015 8:43 am

Looks like eyewall replacement is occurring.

Image
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#105 Postby supercane » Fri Nov 20, 2015 10:14 am

12Z advisory info.
JTWC maintains In-fa as a major typhoon status with 100kt winds:
WTPN51 PGTW 201500
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 151120124928
2015112012 27W IN-FA 015 01 280 16 SATL RADR 010
T000 107N 1459E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 114N 1431E 115 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 123N 1402E 120 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 134N 1375E 120 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 146N 1354E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 169N 1332E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 125 SE QD 120 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 200N 1341E 090
T120 225N 1372E 065
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 015
<rest omitted>

WDPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
GUAM RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 4-NM PINHOLE EYE. A
200841Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO THE CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. OVERALL,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK
MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON
A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW. TY 27W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 27W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
FAST TRACK SPEEDS THROUGH TAU 48 WHILE INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK OF 120
KNOTS NEAR TAU 24.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY IN-FA WILL BEGIN SLOWING AS IT BEGINS
TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE NEAR TAU
96 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE
STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. HIGH VWS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST DAY.//
NNNN

WTPQ50 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1526 IN-FA (1526)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 10.8N 146.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 12.2N 140.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 221200UTC 13.9N 135.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 231200UTC 16.1N 132.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 241200UTC 18.6N 133.1E 240NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
120HF 251200UTC 21.8N 136.6E 300NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT =
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#106 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Nov 20, 2015 1:18 pm

In-fa can be seen on radar out of Guam.

Image
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#107 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:47 pm

Pinhole eye in a very small typhoon. Looking like one of those badly underestimated system that dvorak does poorly on...

Image
Image
Image
Image

supercane wrote: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
GUAM RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 4-NM PINHOLE EYE.



:double:
Last edited by euro6208 on Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#108 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:48 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 NOV 2015 Time : 191000 UTC
Lat : 10:52:59 N Lon : 144:04:50 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 961.9mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 4.9 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -7.0C Cloud Region Temp : -71.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 105km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 13.2 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#109 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:55 pm

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 201609
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON IN-FA (27W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
209 AM CHST SAT NOV 21 2015

...TYPHOON IN-FA NEARING CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO GUAM...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON GUAM AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 40
NAUTICAL MILES.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
GUAM WATERS.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON IN-FA (27W) WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.9N...LONGITUDE 144.9E. THIS WAS ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH
OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST AT 18 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 115
MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TYPHOON IN-FA WILL REACH ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO THE
SOUTH OF GUAM AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. GUAM WILL ONLY
ENCOUNTER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND
IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE ONLY MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS TODAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DURING THE STORM...STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. DO NOT
VENTURE OUTSIDE WHEN HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING.

HAVE A WELL CHARGED CELL PHONE NEARBY. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM
INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL AFTER TYPHOON IN-FA
PASSES AND WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 9 AM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ001-PMZ151-210200-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.0012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-
209 AM CHST SAT NOV 21 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETED. GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
THE LATEST AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. HOWEVER...AS TYPHOON IN-FA (27W) PASSES...
STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND BE READY TO ACT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP LOOSE ITEMS INDOORS...SUCH AS GARBAGE
CANS...TARPS OR CANOPIES...AND OUTDOOR FURNITURE...AS THEY COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND. NEWLY PLANTED OR YOUNG TREES AND SHRUBS MAY BE
UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED PROPERLY. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE HIGHEST
SEAS WILL BE FOUND IN WATERS SOUTH OF GUAM.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
MINOR COASTAL INUNDATION 1 TO 2 FEET MAY OCCUR ALONG EAST FACING
COASTLINES OF GUAM TODAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE NEAR 3 AM AND 3 PM CHST.

...INLAND FLOODING...
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY. SOME
LOCAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN LOW-LYING OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

$$

MCELROY
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#110 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:21 pm

Looks like it's gunning for "super".
I'm pretty sure that that compact core contains winds greater than 130 knts.

IMO, In-fa also has a legitimate shot at cat 5 if she can just manage to put her CDO into the fridge.
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#111 Postby supercane » Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:29 pm

18Z advisories:
WTPN51 PGTW 202100
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 151120192136
2015112018 27W IN-FA 016 01 275 16 SATL 015
T000 109N 1443E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 117N 1415E 115 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 127N 1387E 120 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 138N 1363E 120 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 150N 1345E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 167N 1327E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 125 SE QD 120 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 187N 1329E 090
T120 212N 1352E 065
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 016
<rest omitted>

WDPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 172 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND GUAM RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 13-NM RAGGED DIAMETER EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD
OUTFLOW WITH AN EQUATORWARD BIAS. TY 27W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 27W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR, WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
FAST TRACK SPEEDS THROUGH TAU 48 WHILE INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK OF 120
KNOTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY IN-FA WILL BEGIN SLOWING AS IT BEGINS
TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE NEAR TAU
96 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE
STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. HIGH VWS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI- MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

WTPQ50 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1526 IN-FA (1526)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 11.0N 144.4E GOOD
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 211800UTC 12.3N 138.9E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 221800UTC 14.5N 134.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 231800UTC 16.7N 132.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 241800UTC 19.7N 133.7E 240NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
120HF 251800UTC 22.0N 136.8E 300NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT =
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#112 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:55 pm

Image

Guam got lucky yet again.
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#113 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:02 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 NOV 2015 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 10:59:04 N Lon : 143:53:01 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 961.9mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 4.9 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +11.2C Cloud Region Temp : -72.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 105km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 13.3 degrees
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#114 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:04 pm

Would love to get recon into this pinhole midget typhoon...Category 5?

In-fa reminding me of STY Rita from 1978.

Image
Image
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#115 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:44 pm

Eye temp really spiking now. CIMSS ADT is now using Himawari-8 in the WPac, and it has double digit eye temps now.

CIMSS ADT: 27W
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#116 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Nov 20, 2015 5:07 pm

euro6208 wrote:Pinhole eye in a very small typhoon. Looking like one of those badly underestimated system that dvorak does poorly on...

[images removed]

supercane wrote: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
GUAM RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 4-NM PINHOLE EYE.



[face thing removed]


Both subjective Dvorak analysis and ADT should in theory be considerably better with smaller storms now that their based off Himawari-8. Himawari-8 eye temps are running about 9*C warmer than those from the lower resolution MTSAT-2.
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#117 Postby supercane » Fri Nov 20, 2015 8:07 pm

Rapid intensification happening, with latest T numbers 6.5 (127kt) from JTWC and 6.0 (115kt) earlier from SAB.
JMA 00Z up to 95kt from 80kt just 6 hours earlier.
WTPQ50 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1526 IN-FA (1526)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 11.2N 142.9E GOOD
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 13.0N 136.9E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 230000UTC 15.2N 132.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 240000UTC 16.9N 131.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 250000UTC 19.8N 133.8E 240NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
120HF 260000UTC 22.1N 136.9E 300NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT =
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#118 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:04 pm

Up to 115 knots, category 4.
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#119 Postby supercane » Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:31 pm

:uarrow: As euro6208 mentioned, In-fa now up to 115kt with predicted peak of 125kt by JTWC:
WTPN51 PGTW 210300
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 151121041314
2015112100 27W IN-FA 017 01 280 15 SATL 020
T000 112N 1428E 115 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 121N 1398E 125 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 105 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 132N 1369E 125 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 144N 1345E 120 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 158N 1326E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 125 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 184N 1326E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 207N 1344E 085
T120 227N 1374E 065
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 017
<rest omitted>

WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM SOUTHWEST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYMMETRY OF THE EYE HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH A
CLEARLY DEFINED 15-NM DIAMETER EYE, SUPPORTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
POSITIONING TY 27W. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD SHOW
A STEADY INTENSIFICATION WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATED AT 115
KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD OUTFLOW WITH AN EQUATORWARD BIAS.
TY 27W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 27W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP LAYERED STR,
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN RELATIVELY FAST TRACK SPEEDS
THROUGH TAU 48 WHILE INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK OF 125 KNOTS IN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY IN-FA WILL BEGIN SLOWING AS IT BEGINS
TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE NEAR TAU
96 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE
STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. HIGH VWS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI- MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

The tropical storm warning for Guam was cancelled at 00Z, and there are no active warnings for land areas. Peak wind gust just barely reached minimal TS force at PGUM (PK WND 09035/1906).
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#120 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 21, 2015 4:06 am

System reintensifying again with a pronounced eye developing.

Image

Huge hot tower in white indicates a strengthening episode.

Image
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